Transcript Fukushima and public health Tilman Ruff Nossal Institute for Global Health, University of Melbourne International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons www.icanw.org Medical Association for.

Fukushima and public health
Tilman Ruff
Nossal Institute for Global Health, University of Melbourne
International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons www.icanw.org
Medical Association for Prevention of War / International Physicians for the
Prevention of Nuclear War
Consultant: Australian Red Cross, WHO, AusAID, UNICEF,
Novartis Vaccines, GSK Biologicals
MAPW National Council Forum 3 Sep 2011
Left = Japan - nuclear facilities: actual
Source: CNIC, 原子力市民年鑑2008年
Right: Japan - nuclear facilities thwarted
East Japan earthquake
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Earthquake 9.0 GMT 5:46:23 11 March 2011
Earth wobbled and rotation sped up – 11 Mar shorter by 1.8 µsec
39 m tsunami affecting >500 km coast from Hokkaido to Chiba
Continuing aftershocks
Extreme damage to infrastructure – water, electricity, gas, sewage,
fuel, communications, transport, roads, fires
90% deaths from drowning; dead outnumber injured 3 to 1
Unusually cold weather
5 July: 15,534 dead, 7092 missing
15 March: 440,000 people in evacuation centres
16 June: 112,400 displaced
Earthquakes (global) > 8.5: 11 in 20th C, 5 in 21st, most with
tsunamis
Previous tsunamis E Honshu: 1896 - 38 m, 1933 - 29 m
Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant
• 6 Mark 1 GE BWReactors – 1-3 operating at time
• Past TEPCO data falsification and safety breaches involved these
reactors
• Sea walls designed for < 5.5 m tsunami
• 1760 tons fuel cf Chernobyl 180 tons
• Spent fuel ponds within same buildings close to reactors
• Reactor 3 loaded with MOX fuel Sep 2010
• Hydrogen explosions, fires, current and spent fuel meltdown,
breaches of reactor vessels and primary containment, makeshift
cooling
• Unclear relative contributions of earthquake and tsunami
damage
• Current still >120,000 tons radioactive water flooding plant
Fukushima Daiichi
NPP Accident
11 March 2011
Radiation exposure pathways
(~ half external/half internal)
Ionising radiation maximum permissible dose limits
• Average background radiation: 2-3 mSv/y; half due to radon gas –
ICRP doubled risk estimate for radon 2009
• General population: 1 mSv
– 1 mSv/y ~ 0.11 microSv/h
• Radiation workers:
– 100 mSv over 5 y with no more than 50 mSv in any year
– Japan: women regulated at 5 mSv over 3 mo
• ICRP recommendations accidents/emergencies:
– In lower part of 1-20 mSv range for public
– Workers – 100 mSv, ICRP up to 500mSv for volunteers in emergency
rescue operations
– Post-Fukushima Japan:
• 250 mSv/y workers
• 20 mSv for public including children
• Codex Alimentarius Commission food recommendations based on
max 1 mSv/y assuming contaminated food max 10% of diet
Fukushima fallout
CTBTO modelling
The Fukushima Daiichi Incident
3. Radiological releases
Source:AREVA
Air monitoring
• 330 microSv/hr 20 km NW on 15 March
• Cumulative doses 23 March – 4 July >30 km away up to 48.4
mSv
• GOJ IAEA subm 6.11 V, WPRO Sitrep 35 6.7.11
Soil I-131, Fukushima Prefecture
WPRO Sitrep 34 8.6.11
I-131, Itate
WPRO Sitrep 34 8.6.11
WPRO Sitrep 35
WHO Sitrep 35 6 July 11
Itate village air dose rates 25 Apr – 7 Aug (μSv/h)
飯舘村(H23/4/25～8/7)
Iitate village (measured on April 25 - August 7, 2011)
空間線量率（マイクロシーベルト/時）
Air dose rate(μSv/h）
20
15
10
5
0
4/25
5/5
5/15
5/25
6/4
6/14
6/24
7/4
測定日時（日時）
Monitoring Time [Date (time)]
7/14
7/24
8/3
8/13
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i2
i3
i4
i5
i6
i7
i8
i9
i10
i11
i12
i13
i14
i15
i16
i17
i18
i19
i20
i21
i22
i23
i24
i25
i26
i28
i29
i30
i31
i32
Namie town air dose rate 27 Apr – 7 Aug (μSv/h)
浪江町(H23/4/27～8/7)
Namie town (measured on April 27 - August 7, 2011)
50.0
空間線量率（マイクロシーベルト/時）
Air dose rate(μSv/h）
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
4/25 4/30 5/5 5/10 5/15 5/20 5/25 5/30 6/4 6/9 6/14 6/19 6/24 6/29 7/4 7/9 7/14 7/19 7/24 7/29 8/3 8/8 8/13
測定日時（日時）
Monitoring Time [Date (time)]
n1
n2
n3
n4
n5
n6
n7
n8
n9
n10
n11
IAEA Radiol monitoring 2.6.11
ZAMG monitoring Takasaki
200 km from Fukushima, NW of Tokyo
Radiation dose rates in air
Highest 35
µSv/hr
TEPCO via
WPRO Sitrep
35 6 July 11
Environmental readings 7 Aug (μSv/h)
東京電力株式会社福島第一原子力発電所周辺のモニタリング結果
(Readings at Reading Points out of TEPCO Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP)
【1】
0.7
【2】
1.4
【37】
2.8
【101】
0.2
【3】
1.8
【33】
15.2
【32】
15.4
【39】
0.5
【5】
0.4
測定日時 (Monitoring Time)
2011/8/7 8：11 ～ 13:11
●測定箇所(Reading point)
【7】
0.5
福島市
【36】
1.9
【78】
0.3
相馬市 【108】
2.0
【4】
0.8
【10】
0.4
【107】
1.4
【80】
0.3
0.4
【103】
0.4
南相馬市
【79】
7.4
【31】
6.3
二本松市
【11】
0.7
【34】
4.4
【81】
20.4
本宮市
【22】
0.2
福島第一原子力発電所
(Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP)
【113】
1.2
【23】
0.4
郡山市
【110】
0.8
【181】
0.6
【20】
0.3
【115】
2.5
須賀川市
20
k
【76】
0.3
【14】
0.2
【15】
0.6
【84】
0.3
10km
単位(Unit)：ﾏｲｸﾛｼｰﾍﾞﾙﾄ毎時（μSv/h）
【105】
0.3
【43】
0.5
m
【177】
1.0
【111】 m
【106】
0.3
0.6
【75】
0.1
0.2
0.1
円は範囲の概略を示す(Circles indicate approximate range.)
【21】
1.4
福島第二原子力発電所
(Fukushima Dai-ni NPP)
30
k
【13】
0.2
【104】
0.8
【83】
33.0
【38】
0.3
【114】
1.2
【73】
0.5
【72】
0.4
【71】
0.4
【112】
0.7
（注） TEPCO:Tokyo Electric Power Company
Dose Monitoring Map (Estimates)
(As of July 11, 2011)
MEXT 2 Sep 2011
Map: Online map by the Geospatial Information Authority of Japan
Cumulative
external
doses µSv
23.3-4.7.11
highest
48,360
UNSCEAR 2008, deposition to Dec 89
Chernobyl zones Cs 137 deposition
kBq/m2
Ci/km2
Zone
Action
>1480
>40
Confiscated/close
d
Relocation
555-1480
15-40
185-555
5-15
37-185
1-5
<37
<1
Permanent control Dose reduction
(soil
Periodic control decontaminatio
n, food
restrictions/imp
orts
N (1995)
193,300
580,000
4,386,000
Uncontaminated
Zoning criteria Belarus 1991
kBq/m2
Individual dose
(mSv)
Zone
>1480
>5
Priority resettlement
555-1480
<5
Secondary resettlement
185-555
>1
Resettlement rights
37-185
<1
Periodic radiation monitoring
ICRP 111, 2009
• Red and most yellow is
> Chernobyl relocation
zone (>1480 kBq/m2)
• Rest of yellow, green,
light blue and some
dark blue is > Chernobyl
dose reduction zone
• Cs 137 T1/2 =30 years
Protective measures 1
• Evacuation for est ext >50 mSv
– 20 vs 80 km; late
– Planned Evacuation Zones 20-30 km where dose est
>20 mSv/y evacuated by end June
– Katsurao, Namie, Iitate, Kawamata town (part) Minamisoma
City (part)
– 16 June guidelines to deal with hot spots >20 mSv, >30
km
• No entry zone 20 km radius declared 22 April
• Sheltering – for ext est >10mSv, esp 20-30 km
zone
Protective measures 2
• Acceptance increased exposures eg 20 mSv for children of
all ages, 30 April
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Poor process, no technical support
Resignation of govt advisor Prof Toshiso Kosako
Public concern
Many schools, communities undertook measures themselves
25 June government aim 1 mSv, accept 10 mSv
• Stable iodine – appears not used?
– initial evacuation completed by time instruction issued VII-9 GOJ
IAEA subm 6.11)
• Food and water monitoring and restrictions
• Local monitoring – schools in Fukushima, pregnant women
• Remediation – including local initiative eg schools esp
‘exchanging soil layers’
Protective measures 3
• Long term health studies:
• UNSCEAR radiological assessment planned, prelim
findings May 2012
• IARC offered cooperation for long-term pop FU (and
recently called for long-term coord res for Chernobyl)
• Fukushima Pref assessment all 2 m residents planned
8-12/11 incl 120 whole body scans for internal
exposure
• University collaboration: Fukushima Medical,
Hiroshima, Nagasaki Univ ? details
Monitoring food
Cesium found Shizuoka, Kanagawa, Tokyo, Gunma
WPRO Sitrep 35 6 July11
Marine I-131
WPRO Sitrep 34 8.6.11
Marine Cs-137
WPRO Sitrep 35 6 July11
Workers
• Usually around 1000 permanent staff, around 9,000 contractors
• Major long-standing issues with monitoring and safety of
contract workers
• GOJ submission to IAEA 6.11, as at 23 May:
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–
–
–
–
7800 workers
Average 7.7 mSv
30 with doses >100mSv, less than a handful >250 mSv
3 with substantial skin exposure (poor PPE)
Some with internal exposures eg I-131
Fukushima fallout: source term
• Utilising CTBT monitoring data, Austrian Central Institute for
Meteorology and Geodynamics calculated that in first 3 days:
• the activity of I-131 emitted was 20% and
• Cesium-137 20-60% , of the entire Chernobyl emissions of
these
• The Fukushima plant has around 1760 tonnes of fresh and
used nuclear fuel on site, whereas the Chernobyl reactor had
180 tonnes
• As of 25/4/2011 the fallout from Fukushima was estimated at
154 TBq/day (TBq=1012 Bq)
• 630,000 TBq released in the first three weeks
• 17% of Chernobyl total atmospheric emissions (34% of
official estimates)
• Initial Japanese estimates were based only on atmospheric
releases, excluding marine and terrestrial surface/soil releases
Fukushima source term
• Sources:
UNSCEAR 2008
GOJ IAEA subm 6.11
• But
– Emissions continue
– Unclear what is included
– Much lower than other estimates
Event
I-131 (PBq –
1015 )
Cs-137 (PBq)
Atmospheric
nuclear
weapon tests
675,000
948
Chernobyl
1760
85
Fukushima
GOJ
160
15
IRSN 12-22
March
200
30
Some public health needs
• Stronger coordination, consistency and leadership of disaster
management including public health response
• Advocacy for protection of public health to take greater
priority over political, institutional and vested interests
• Full transparency and timely communication re reactor status,
radiation releases, public health risks and response
• Earlier, faster, coordinated identification of needs and
mobilisation of international resources to control and cool
reactors and fuel ponds
• Long-term, prospective, independent, health study of affected
population, starting asap with register and radiation exposure
assessment; with international involvement and rigorous,
peer-reviewed processes and timely public release of reports
Some public health needs
• Reactor and fuel pond safety ASAP:
– Cold shutdown
– Containment integrity
– Stable closed-loop cooling
• In context of damaged, unstable reactors and frequent
continuing aftershocks, preparedness for prompt further
evacuations is needed
The Australian connection
• About 30% of uranium sourced by TEPCO comes
from Australia
• Yvonne Margarula to Ban Ki-Moon 6 April:
– “We Aboriginal people opposed Ranger’s
development and even though our opposition was
overruled it has never gone away. .. It is likely that
the radiation problems at Fukushima are, at least in
part, fuelled by uranium derived from our traditional
lands. This makes us feel very sad.”
“None of the promises last,
but the problems always do.”
Yvonne Margarula, Mirrar Senior Traditional Owner