Transcript THORPEX-Africa Aida DIONGUE-NIANG, André Kamga FOAMOUHOUE , Ernest AFIESIMAMA, Kwabena ASOMANIN, Amare BABU, Arona DIEDHIOU, Benjamin LAMPTEY, Abdalah MOKSSIT, Franklin OPIJAH, Eugene POOLMAN, Jim CAUGHEY, Dave.

THORPEX-Africa
Aida DIONGUE-NIANG,
André Kamga FOAMOUHOUE , Ernest AFIESIMAMA, Kwabena
ASOMANIN, Amare BABU, Arona DIEDHIOU, Benjamin
LAMPTEY, Abdalah MOKSSIT, Franklin OPIJAH, Eugene
POOLMAN,
Jim CAUGHEY, Dave PARSONS
THORPEX-Africa: the African regional
contribution to the International
THORPEX programme
•
•
•
•
•
Background
Overall goal
Main objectives
Planned activities
Collaboration and Partnership
 With AMMA
• Next steps
TTISS Monterey
2
THORPEX-Africa: Background
•
2006: Contributions from Scientists in and out of Africa
 Collected by ACMAD and synthetized by WMO
•
First International African THORPEX Planning meeting, Ouagadougou,
February 2007
 Present THORPEX programme
 Present the African THORPEX draft document
 Set up two Task Forces to write-up the Science Plan & study the RC
structure
•
THORPEX TF1 meeting, Dakar, September 2007
 Rewrite the Science Plan
 Outline feasable tasks for Implementation
 Prepare the 2nd planning meeting
•
2nd International African THORPEX planning meeting,
Karlsruhe, November 2007
 Present the revised Science Plan
 Discuss some Implementation activities
 Propose the composition of the Regional Committee
• 1st Regional Committee meeting, SAWS, July 2008
 Produce the draft of the Implementation Plan
Background (2)
• The WWRP /THORPEX African Science Plan (English version) is available
on-line at :
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/
thorpex_african_science_plan.pdf
The WWRP /THORPEX African Implementation Plan available at:
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/
thorpex_african_implementation_plan.pdf
Both English and French versions have been prepared and disseminated
to Met services, academic organizations and institutes, research and users
communities networks, institutional bodies.
TTISS Monterey
4
THORPEX-Africa Overall Goal
Provide the research to help reduce the
adverse effects of meteorological and climate
related disasters in the context of climate
change for the benefit of Societies, the
Economy and the Environment in Africa
TTISS Monterey
5
THORPEX-Africa Main Objectives
Improving forecasts
in Africa from daily to
seasonal timescales
for key sector
activities
•Agriculture and food
security
•Health
•Water Res. Management
•Disaster Management
•Transportation
Promoting
multidisciplinary
collaboration
between research,
operational and
user communities
Developing accurate
and timely early
warnings in a form
that can be readily
used in decisionmaking support tools
Providing better
knowledge of HIW
and assessing impact
of weather forecast
on the development
of mitigation
strategies
•Heavy rainfall and floods
•Severe winds
•Sand and dust episodes
•Late onset/early withdrawal
of the rainy season
•Dry spells and prolonged
periods of drought
6
TTISS Monterey
PDP1:
Predictive Skill of
high impact
weather
PDP2:
Development of
Seamless forecast
from seasonal to
daily timescales
DAOS1:
Design of an
optimum
network in Africa
Planned activities
Predictability
and
Dynamical
Processes
TIGGE
Societal and
Economic
Research
Application
Data
assimilation
and
observing
systems
DAOS2:
Use of non
conventional
observing
systems
SERA1:
High-impact
weather
information
System
SERA2:
Forecast
verification and
cost/benefit
assessments
DAOS3:
Improvement of
telecommunications
facilities with WIS
7
SERA1: High-impact weather information system
• Aim: Create user-friendly
database available for use by the
research , forecasting and user
communities for integrated and
multidisciplinary activities, decision
and policy making
Issue:
Global Meteorological and
climate-related disasters’s
database are available Limited
archived data, tools,
computing and storage capacity
in Africa: big limitation for
research and applications
activities
• Approach: Compiling high-impact
weather events in each sub-region
in Africa and collecting both
weather and impact data to be
stored to a designed information
system that will be first based at
UNESCO/ICTP (Trieste) and
transferred to a centre in Africa
TTISS Monterey
8
SERA2: Forecast verification and cost/benefits
assessments
• Aim: Develop appropriate
verification measures for each
priority sector, Cost and benefit
analysis for HIW.
Energy
Water Resource
Management
Food
security
Transport
Health
Disaster management
Issues: Integration of climate
and meteorological information
in policy and decision making is
low and most of the current
verification systems are not
user-oriented
• Approach: Carrying research in
partnership with social and
economic scientists to tailor
verification systems, cost and
benefit measurements of highimpact weather and forecasts
respectively.
TTISS Monterey
9
DAOS1: Design of an optimum observation
network in Africa
• Aim:Make recommendations for a
more optimal observing system in
the whole continent to support
High-impact Weather predictions.
Issue: The Observing System in
Africa has been deteriorating over
many years., although in West
Africa the AMMA programme
increased the number of stations,
particularly the upper air stations
• Approach: Building upon AMMA to
extend monitoring of African
conventional observing systems
and radiosondes denial
experiments to the whole
continent. Assess the value of
AMDAR data.
TTISS Monterey
10
DAOS2: Enhance the use of non conventional
observing systems
• Aim: Explore the potential of new
observing technologies to provide
additional observations that
improve the skill of High-impact
Weather forecasts.
• Approach: Use of the potential of
Satellite and Aircraft data to
improve
Issue: Many Satellite data
already/soon available and
potential of aircraft data not
validated over Africa
 i) spatial and temporal coverage
 ii) to explore their impact on the
quality of analyses and forecasts ,
particularly AMDAR data
TTISS Monterey
11
DAOS3: Improvement of telecommunication facilities
in Africa : through WIS-Africa?
• Aim:Develop in
conjunction with
WMO/CBS
telecommunication
strategies, in the
framework of WMO
Information System (WIS)
Temp messages received at
ECMWF on May 04, 2005
• Approach: Collaborating
with WIS task team to
conduct pilot projects to
test or build African core
components of WIS that
meet THORPEX-Africa
requirements
Issue: Obsolescence of
telecommunication facilities is a
major constraint of data collection
and dissemination, contributing to
the limited quality of weather
forecasts in Africa
TTISS Monterey
12
PDP1:High-impact weather predictability
• Aim: Improve our
understanding of Highimpact Weather events,
assess their predictability
and improve our ability to
predict these events.
• Approach:
 Case studies of NWP
assesseement and
modelling studies of key
high-impact in African subregions
 To feed the formation
system
Squall line over Niger: surface rainfall
19h
23h
17h
21h
24h
Issue: Predictive skill of phenomena
producing high-impact weather is
still low for short –medium range
although there are some promising
research results
 To contribute to
AMMA/handbook
TTISS Monterey
13
PDP2: Development of a seamless forecasting system
in Africa
Aim:
i.
Improve our knowledge
and understanding of the
nature and causes of
intraseasonal to
seasonal variability and
its impacts on weather
statistics
ii. Provide a continuum of
skillful weather/climate
prediction system from
daily to seasonal
timescales that meet
societal and economic
needs in Africa
Issue: Short range forecasts and
seasonal outlooks are widely
provided to users across Africa
whereas there is the gap
concerning weekly, biweekly and
monthly forecasts. However, key
socio-economical sectors (e.g.
agriculture, health, water
resources) need intra-seasonal
weather information
TTISS Monterey
14
AMMA-THORPEX collaboration: some areas of
actual and potential collaboration
• AMMA-THORPEX WG: High impact weather prediction and predictability
(at “international level”)
• The Forecasters Handbook creation for West Africa to discuss and review
current and new forecasting methods and tools: support of WMO/WWRP
and contribution of THORPEX-Africa
• Design of optimum network : monitoring and data impact studies in the
framework of AMMA to be extended to whole Africa: in the agenda of
THORPEX International WG on Data Assimilation
• Predictability studies, particularly for intra-seasonal timescales
• Integration of climate/meteorological information into decision and policy
making
• Network (research, operational, users communities, institutional)
• Communication strategies
TTISS Monterey
15
Next steps
WORKSHOP ON:
HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER PREDICTABILITY, AN
INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR AFRICA and
AFRICAN FORECASTERS' HANDBOOK
5 - 8 October 2009, The Abdus Salam International
Centre for Theoretical Physics
Co-sponsored by the WMO / WWRP- THORPEX,
ACMAD, FSP-RIPIECSA and GEO
Concluding remarks
• For all the projects, international co-operation is
essential
• The support of major NWP centres, research
institutes and organisations is invited and will be
necessary to achieve THORPEX –Africa goals
• The approach will be to build activities on existing
programmes (e.g. AMMA) and make linkages to other
directly relevant projects (e.g. UCAR Africa Initiative,
ClimDev-Africa, ICSU-ROA/Natural hazards and
disasters programme)