Transcript Slide 1

John F. Henz, C.C.M & Mat Mampara, P.E.
Dewberry – Denver CO
Dewberry – Fairfax VA
Stoepher
Session: F-4
830AM-1000AM
Thursday, May 19, 2011
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Family medical emergency
I apologize for my abscence
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Low-impact – minor inconvenience, small and
local economic losses, etc.
Moderate-impact – minor damage, some
social disruption, etc.
High-impact – damage, risks to health, broad
economic impact, etc.
Extreme-impact – Catastrophic losses,
deaths, injuries, major social disruption, etc.
DEFINING THE IMPACT OF WEATHER, Patrick McCarthy , http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/program_414.htm
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Low-impact – minor inconvenience, small and
local economic losses, etc.
Moderate-impact – minor damage, some
social disruption, etc.
High-impact – damage, risks to health, broad
economic impact, etc.
Extreme-impact – Catastrophic losses,
deaths, injuries, major social disruption, etc.
DEFINING THE IMPACT OF WEATHER, Patrick McCarthy , http://ams.confex.com/ams/22WAF18NWP/techprogram/program_414.htm
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1) People – individuals, families, workers,
personal property, their work, lifestyles,
health, etc.
2) Society – communities, healthcare,
infrastructure, emergency response, etc.
3) Economy – transportation, recreation,
tourism, agriculture, aviation, etc.
4) Environment – air, water, land
Deaths
1. Tri-State Tornado Outbreak: 747+
2. Tupelo/Gainsville Outbreak: 436
3. Super Outbreak II: 341
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Early snow melt and rains over northern
plains drove a head of flooding down the
Mississippi.
Heavy rainfall preceded the tornado outbreak
in the three days before April 27
During the tornado outbreak, numerous flash
floods blocked roads, required evacuations
and strained emergency services. Some
examples:
1974 vs. 2011 Climate similarities:
 Record snows in upper plains, Mid-West and
Eastern seaboard followed by rains & floods.
 Record tornado outbreak in April.
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Third high likelihood: a hurricane strike along
the Gulf Coast in August or September?
Lessons to be learned:
 Plan for concurrent severe weather events
especially severe weather, tornadoes and
flooding in the same 24-72 hour window.
 Expect lingering economic and utility impacts
including diminished electrical and water
utility services.
 What are the other impacts?
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1) Death/injury/stress/etc.
2) Property damage/destruction
3) Increased expenditures, changing plans
4) Inconvenience
5) Hazardous travel
Morss, R.E., 2006: Defining “high-impact weather forecasts” in North America: Some ideas for discussion. Presentation, Workshop on
North American THORPEX societal & economic research & applications, Boulder, CO.
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1) Loss of power, water, sewers, roadways,
etc.
2) reduced emergency response
3) Compromising performance/access of
hospitals, family services, etc.
4) Reduced access to necessities (food, fuel,
pharmacies, etc.)
5) Closures of schools, daycares, transit,
churches, etc.
Morss, R.E., 2006: Defining “high-impact weather forecasts” in North America: Some ideas for discussion. Presentation, Workshop on
North American THORPEX societal & economic research & applications, Boulder, CO.
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1) Reduced quality of product
2) Reduced quality of service
3) Delays
4) Increased costs
5) Loss of customers
Morss, R.E., 2006: Defining “high-impact weather forecasts” in North America: Some ideas for discussion. Presentation, Workshop on
North American THORPEX societal & economic research & applications, Boulder, CO.
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Complying with or exceeding NFIP floodplain management regulations.
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Enforcing stringent building codes, flood-proofing requirements, seismic
design standards and wind-bracing requirements for new construction or
repairing existing buildings.
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Adopting zoning ordinances that steer development away from areas subject
to flooding, storm surge or coastal erosion.
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Retrofitting public buildings to withstand hurricane-strength winds or ground
shaking.
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Acquiring damaged homes or businesses in flood-prone areas, relocating the
structures, and returning the property to open space, wetlands or
recreational uses.
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Building community shelters and tornado safe rooms to help protect people
in their homes, public buildings and schools in hurricane- and tornado-prone
areas.
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Complying with or exceeding NFIP floodplain management regulations.
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Enforcing stringent building codes, flood-proofing requirements, seismic
design standards and wind-bracing requirements for new construction or
repairing existing buildings.

Adopting zoning ordinances that steer development away from areas subject
to flooding, storm surge or coastal erosion.

Retrofitting public buildings to withstand hurricane-strength winds or ground
shaking.
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Acquiring damaged homes or businesses in flood-prone areas, relocating the
structures, and returning the property to open space, wetlands or
recreational uses.
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Building community shelters and tornado safe rooms to help protect people
in their homes, public buildings and schools in hurricane- and tornado-prone
areas.
Is it enough or should we think “outside the box”?
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Include planning for the occurrence of
several sequential or concurrent high impact
events: snow melt, heavy rains, winds,
flooding, severe weather, hurricanes,
tornadoes.
Consider all the impacts: people, services,
economy, utilities’ disruption, etc.
Expect the unexpected.
"Climate is what you
expect;
weather is what you
get”
- Robert A. Heinlein
Dewberry
Innovative Solutions for
Science and Engineering
Mat Mampara, PE
[email protected]
Fairfax VA
for
John F. Henz, CCM
[email protected]
Denver CO
?