Transcript Role of Policy-makers in promoting gender equality and investment in rural areas Briefing session n°16 : Population Growth and its implications for ACP rural.

Role of Policy-makers in
promoting gender equality and
investment in rural areas
Briefing session n°16 : Population Growth and its
implications for ACP rural development
By Neil Datta, Secretary, European Parliamentary
Forum on Population and Development
IAPG
Argentina
Belize
Bolivia
Brazil
Canada
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Cuba
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Guyana
EPF
Haiti
Honduras
Jamaica
Mexico
Nicaragua
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
United States of America
Uruguay
Venezuela
Armenia
Austria
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Denmark
European Parliament
Finland
France
Georgia
Germany
Ireland
Lithuania
Netherlands
AFPPD
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Scotland
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
Australia
Bangladesh
Cambodia
China
Fiji
India
Indonesia
Iran
Japan
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Lao
Malaysia
Maldives
Mongolia
Nepal
New Zealand
Pakistan
Philippine
Solomon Islands
South Korea
Sri Lanka
Tajikistan
Thailand
Vietnam
Population Growth Overview
•
In 2008: more than 50% of humanity lives in
cities, ie: 3.3 billion people
•
Urban population will grow to 4.9 billion by
2030. Rural population is expected to
decrease by some 28 million between 2005
and 2030.
•
At the global level, all future population
growth will thus be in towns and cities.
•
In 1950: world counted 2 “mega-cities”
(Tokyo and New York), in 2007 there were
20.
•
By 2015, there are expected to be 5
“double-mega-cities” (ie. more than 20
Million inhabitants) – Tokyo, New York,
Mexico City, Mumbai, Sao Paolo.
•
Most population growth taking place in
developing countries and almost exclusively
in cities.
•
Population growth since 10.000 BC
Population Growth Overview
Policy challenges of population
growth:
•
population growth is NOT taking
place where new jobs are being
created but IS taking place where
the MDGs are most off-track
•
99% Population growth in
developing countries and 90% in
the poorest of these countries.
•
increase investment is social
(health, educational)
infrastructure, ie. in some high
population growth countries, the
number of school-age children can
double every 20 years
Population Growth Overview
Population Growth and
Poverty:
• the poorest
populations in subSaharan Africa all
have significantly
higher fertility rates
than the richest in the
same countries.
Population Growth Overview
• Out of 50 LDCs
surveyed in 2005, 40
felt that their rate of
population growth
was “too high” and
another 10 as
“satisfactory” – none
said “too low”.
Population Growth Overview
Policy challenges:
• Neglect for contraception & family
planning
• Rights of the most vulnerable girls are not
respected
• Developing countries’ concerns for
population growth not listened
Contraception & Family Planning
The average woman must use some form
of effective contraception for at least 20
years if she wants to limit her family size
to two children and for 16 years if she
wants four children.
Source: WHO
Contraception & Family Planning
• 215 million women who want
to avoid a pregnancy are not
using an effective method of
contraception
• Meeting the need for family
planning and maternal and
newborn health would reduce
unintended pregnancies by
more than two-thirds, from 75
million to 22 million per year.
• Source: Adding it up 2009
Contraception & Family Planning
Donor funding for family planning
declines, even as progress in
maternal health stalls
Percentage change in donor assistance for
family planning programmes per woman
aged 15 to 49, 1996 to 2006
• Fulfilling the unmet
need for modern
family planning
methods would cost
$3.6 billion in addition
to the $3.1 billion
spent serving current
users of modern
methods – a total of
$6.7 billion annually.
Vulnerable Girls
“Early adolescence is a critical moment
when, for many girls, vulnerability is
consolidated, rights are irremediably lost,
and health is severely threatened.”
Source: Dr. Judith Bruce, Senior Associate and Policy Analyst, Population Council
Girls’ Extreme Social Isolation in Early Adolescence
In some countries, especially sub-Saharan Africa, the majority of girls 10-14 are living in urban areas are living with only one or no parent a median of 5%, and as high as 12% - are living with neither parent and not in school
10-14 year old girls, national
level
Country
Burkina Faso (2003)
Ethiopia (2005)
Kenya (2003)
Malawi (2004)
Mozambique (2003)
Namibia (2000)
Nigeria (2003)
Rwanda (2005)
South Africa (1998)
Tanzania (2004)
Uganda (2006)
Zambia (2001-02)
Percent living with
one parent
Percent living
with neither
parent
15.5
21.4
30.8
23.0
26.6
31.8
20.6
32.6
33.0
25.0
28.0
22.7
17.0
15.3
20.0
31.0
25.1
45.2
19.3
24.1
34.2
23.7
29.6
29.5
Percent not in
school and not
living with either
parent
11.8
7.8
2.8
5.0
9.0
3.4
5.2
5.6
0.9
4.5
3.1
9.1
Vulnerable Girls
•
More than 100 million girls will be
married as children in the next
decade according to present
trends
•
Respecting the legal of age of
marriage can lead to a delay in the
first pregnancy will result in a
lower total lifetime fertility rate,
therefore lower population growth
in some regions.
•
Girls Example: Percentages of Ethiopian women
married under age 15
•
Source: 2005 Ethiopian DHS, tabulations and map by Adam Weiner,
Population Council
Vulnerable Girls
Potential Solutions:
• upholding their rights to marriages of their choosing at a legal
age
• creating girl-only spaces, which build social support while
increasing girls’ access to publicly provided education and
health services and entitlements
• building their capacity to negotiate safety in the home, in
partnerships, in school, and in the public space
• preparing them for decent work by tailoring economic
programs to meet their social support and skill needs
Population & Environment
‘Rapid Population Growth’ was identified as a
main priority by 6 countries and as “pertinent to
at least one specific consequence of climate
change” by 37 out of 40 developing countries in
their National Adaptation Programmes of Action
(NAPA) in response to the Global
Environmental Facility.
•
Source: “Climate change and family planning: least developed countries define the agenda”, Leo Bryant, Louise
Carver, Colin Butler & Ababu Anage, WHO 2009
Population and Environment: Africa
•
Population increase in Africa from 292
million in 1961 to 965 million in 2007.
•
Wood production in Africa (for
industrial and fuel) stood at 277 million
m3 in 1961 – it had reached 672
million m3 in 2007 – over 89% is used
as fuel
•
Africa and Latin America are losing
forest cover faster than any other
region, an average annual loss of 4.3
million hectares between 1990-2005
•
Food and People: Livestock increased
by 2.3 while population increased by
3.3 in Africa since 1961. 1980 was the
last year where there were more
livestock in Africa than people.
•
Change in number of people with insufficient
food between 1990 and 2002 (Millions)
Conclusions & Recommendations
• EU donors need to reverse trend in declining assistance to
reproductive health and family planning.
• The health and rights of women and girls should be made a higher
priority on the political agenda than is currently the case, especially
during EU-LAC, JPA, MED and possibly NEST meetings they
should be a constant item on the agenda.
• EU & ACP Governments should invest in programmes for the most
vulnerable girls
• Listen to and plan according to priorities of developing countries
regarding their concerns on population growth
• Adopt human rights approach to population : meeting expressed
demand for voluntary family planning and upholding rights of girls
and women
Sources and further reading :
•
“Return of the population growth factor – its impact on the millennium development
goals” Report of hearings by the United Kingdom All Party Parliamentary Group on
Population, Development and Reproductive Health, January 2007
•
“Adding It Up – the costs and benefits of investing in family planning and maternal
and newborn health” Guttmacher Institute & UNFPA, 2009
•
“Making Critical and Timely Investments in Adolescent Girls’ Health: Why and How”,
Judith Bruce, Population Council, 2009
•
“Plan B4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization”, Lester Brown, 2009, Earth Policy Institute
•
“Climate change and family planning: least developed countries define the agenda”,
Leo Bryant, Louise Carver, Colin Butler & Ababu Anage, WHO 2009