The Future of Food: Feeding 9 Billion People

October 4, 2011 Uko Zylstra Biology Department Calvin College

Present hunger and poverty

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~1 billion undernourished ~1 billion malnourished or overfed (obese) ~1.2 billion live < $1.00/day ~1.2 billion live < $2.00/day Does this situation have any relation to global security?

If so, is the ‘solution’ military security or food security?

A Fundamental Question

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Present global food production is adequate to feed present human population: why are so many still undernourished?

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But is present global food production sustainable ?

A sustainable agriculture is founded upon fundamental principles of agroecosystems

Two paradigms

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Industrial: reductionist – food is basically a form of organic chemical energy

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Agrarian: holistic; concerned with agro ecology and community relations

Key question

Which of the two paradigms will contribute most to food and agriculture sustainability for feeding the growing population?

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Industrial or Agrarian?

This question is important for setting policy and direction (such as in the farm bills)

Food Sustainability

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Linked to population growth

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Linked to resources for growing food

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Cropland: quality and quantity

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Energy (including fertilizer and pesticide production)

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Water (irrigation)

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Rank 1 2 Country / Territory People's Republic of China [57] India 3 United States Population 1,346,650,000 1,203,710,000 312,355,000 Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Nigeria Bangladesh Russia Japan 238,400,000 195,332,000 177,415,000 158,259,000 142,325,250 141,927,297 127,380,000 Date October 4, 2011 % of world population 19.3% March 2011 17% October 4, 2011 4.48% May 2010 3.36% February 4, 2011 2.8% October 4, 2011 2010 2010 2.55% 2.27% 2.36% January 1, 2010 June 1, 2010 2.04% 1.83%

Table 19.3

Future food needs projection

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By 2050, global agricultural demand is projected to grow by 70-100 percent due to population growth, energy demands, and higher incomes in developing countries.

Grain production nearly tripled in between 1950-2000 World Grain Production, 1950-2001

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Source: USDA

1985 1990 1995 2000

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950 World Irrigated Area, 1950-2007 1960 1970 1980

Source: Worldwatch, FAO

1990 2000 2010

Food vs. Fuel

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More than one fourth of the U.S. grain crop is now going to ethanol U.S. ethanol euphoria helped double annual growth in global grain demand, raising food prices worldwide

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Ethanol 6.5% of auto fuel Corn Used for Fuel Ethanol in the United States, 1980-2010

The grain needed to fill an SUV’s 25-gallon tank with ethanol once could feed one person for an entire year.

Photo Credit: iStockPhoto / Dave Huss

Some issues related to animals as food

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Animal population equivalents

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over 15 billion animal population equivalents Food vs. feed Vegetarian vs meat diets Feedlot system of animal husbandry

3 400 3 200 3 000 2 800 2 600 2 400 2 200 2 000 1960 World Livestock Population, 1961-2007 1970 1980

Source: FAO

1990 2000 2010

120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 World Animal Protein Production, 1961-2007 1970 1980

Source: FAO

1990 Pork Poultry Farmed

Fish

Beef

Sheep and Goats

2000 2010

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Soil Fertility

Continues to decline due to farming practices

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Use of chemical fertilizers replaces natural fertility Some good development potentials: no till agriculture organic matter buildup

US Farmland

1200 A 15 % decline M i 1000 l l i o n 800 600 A c r e s 400 200 0 1964 1969 1974 1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007

Kent County Farmland A c r e s 250 T h o u s a n d 200 150 100 50 0 1978 1982 1987 1992 1997 Census Year 2002 2007

Farmland Preservation

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Moral obligation to preserve prime farmland Michigan doesn’t face the water issues as western states do

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Kent County PDR (Purchase of Development Rights) program

Degradation (decline) in resources for food production

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Cropland

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Quality

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quantity

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Water

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Energy Minerals (fertilizers)

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950 World Irrigated Area, 1950-2007 1960 1970 1980

Source: Worldwatch, FAO

1990 2000 2010

Saudi Arabia’s Bursting Bubble

• Saudi Arabia became self-sufficient in wheat by tapping a non replenishable aquifer to irrigate the desert • In early 2008, the government announced the aquifer was largely depleted • The population of nearly 30 million could be entirely dependent on imported grain by 2013

Wheat Production and Consumption in Saudi Arabia, 1995-2010, with Projection to 2013

3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995 2000 Consumption 2010 2005

Source: USDA; EPI

Saudi Arabia is the first country to publicly project how aquifer depletion will shrink its grain harvest.

Production 2015

Photo Credit: NASA

Central Pivot Irrigation

State

Ogallala Aquifer

CORN PRODUCTION Acreage (1000s) Production (1000 bushels) USA total Nebraska Kansas South Dakota Colorado Oklahoma Total irrigated by Ogallala Aquifer 79,630 8,850 3,860 4,700 990 320 23% of total USA 13,151,062 1,575,300 598,300 719,000 151,470 33,600 3,077,770

Colorado R. Watershed

Rio Grande R. Watershed

Rio Grande Watershed

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Drains 1/10 of US; drains 2/5 of Mexico 4/5ths of water taken for irrigation

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mostly for cotton and alfalfa

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Only ~40% reaches crops due to evaporation from reservoirs, etc Hub of exploitation upstream of El Paso 1944 treaty between US & Mexico:

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1/3 of water from 6 tributaries in Mexico is allocated to US

Watersheds supplied by Himalayan glaciers

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Yellow River Yangste River Ganges Brahmaputra Indus River Mekong Amy Darya Syr Darya

Yellow R. Watershed

Yangste R. Watershed

Water Depletion in China

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China: Four fifths of grain harvest comes from irrigated land Water table under North China Plain falling fast (up to 3 meters per year); supplies half of China’s wheat and 1/3 of corn Melting glaciers in Himalayas will aggravate this situation

Water Depletion in India

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World Bank reports 15% of India's food supply is produced by mining water; underground water supplies 2/3 of India's crops

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Melting glaciers in Himalayas will aggravate this situation India’s rivers do not contain enough water to sustain demand

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Irrigating thirsty crops like sugarcane, alfalfa and cotton

Ganges Watershed

100 80 60 40 20 0 % Groundwater developed % Overexploited aquifers

Brahmaputra Watershed

Pakistan

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Without Indus river, Pakistan would be a desert World’s leading export of cotton and manufactured textiles (British empire legacy)

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Nearly 1/3 of irrig. land is for cotton

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1/10 of fields lost to salt accumulation ~138 million acre-ft withdrawn out of ~146 million acre-ft; river largely dry when it reaches Arabian Sea

Indus R. Watershed

Mekong R. Watershed

Amu Darya Watershed

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Aral Sea in 1960s covered size of Belgium and Netherlands combined Contained more than 800 million acre-ft Almost all the flow of Amu Darya diverted for growing cotton in the desert

Aral Sea

Amu Darya R. Watershed

Syr Darya R. Watershed

Nile R. Watershed

100 80 20 0 60 40

Total irrigated area Groundwater irrigated area

Some conclusions

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Food security requires sustainable food and agricultural policies at local, state, regional, national and global levels

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US Farm Bills need to focus on sustainable agriculture including small farmholders – not only production Preservation of prime farmland is a bottom line for food security Preservation of water resources is critical for sustainability

Questions?

Murray-Darling R. Watershed