Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress 14 June 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp. http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/ CIO Congress.
Download ReportTranscript Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress 14 June 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp. http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/ CIO Congress.
Information Technologies that will drive Enterprise Change
Forbes/Gartner CIO Congress 14 June 1998 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corp.
http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
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Topics...
JAWS
JAWES
T
STEW
WEST
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WEB
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E-Commerce
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Scalability
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Telepresence
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Web…a small Cyberspace island
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Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!
Continent
World
Region/ Intranet Body Car Home Campus, including SANs Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms
“Everything will be in Cyberspace”
Is this a challenge? goal? quest? fate?… or
Cyberization enables new computing platforms that require new networks to connect them
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Infrastructure supports the content
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Three evolutionary dimensions
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Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video
Bit tokens e.g. money, stock
State of: places, things, and people
State of: physical networks
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Atoms vs Electrons for bits
Atoms (mass) people know bricks & mortar office hours database & reports letter & fax phone personal visits signature envelopes Electrons, etc. (massless) computers know anywhere (personnel/clients) anytime web access for review and transactions email & web access email, voice & video mail videophone / videomail authenticated images
By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.
Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.
Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.
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Why this is the keystone bet!
It determines the market
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for networks for access devices… especially PCs It says something about the utility
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commerce
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communication entertainment Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables
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phones
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videophones television serendipity
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Internetters growth
12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 World Population extrapolated at 1.6% per year Internet Growth extrapolated at 98% per year 0 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
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Internetters growth
10000
World Population TVs & Phones
1000
PCs
“ 1 Gp by 2000 ” Negroponte 100
Internetters
10 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
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Growth in hype
WWW Infoway promise: “how great it’ll be” (politicians, academics, etc.) books, Infoway Infoway addiction conferences lawsuits
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Data from Gordon’s WAG
Articles about security, privacy, & fraud versus commerce ($M)
actual commerce articles about risk and NOT doing commerce pornography, crime, FUD, etc. articles
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Data from Gordon’s WAG
Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space
Computation Communication Cyberization
Programs, Content & messages CIO Congress
Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020?
Data Telephony Television
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CIO Challenge … how to manage Cyberspace?
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Visibility is Required for Every Part of the System!
New & in-house custom applications SAP, PeopleSoft, BAAN, Oracle ERP Oracle, MS-SQL, SyBase, Informix Notes, Outlook, Netshow, File & Print SMTP, POP, Exchange, ccMail HTTP(s), DNS, FTP, Real, Pointcast
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Managing the entire IT Enterprise: servers, apps, nets and clients …
Enterprise’s growing dependence upon apps for business processes and extended market reach … and especially E-commerce Growing complexity of apps and Growing “user” diversity including customers No visibility into the user’s experience
The approach has to be to understand the system from the user’s perspective!
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Client Based Passive Flow Analysis:
End-to-end Path Visibility
Applications
Availability Transaction Time Transaction Health
Client Network Server Routers & Switches Availability PC Health Configuration Delay User Behavior Modem Phone Line Availability Congestion, Hop Count, Delay RTT (Round Trip Time) Route flutter, Packet loss Available Throughput Availability Load Delay Refused
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E- Commerce (and especially money… as atoms become bits)
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PC or web access device is critical for growth
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US Households on line CIO Congress
One million people will access the web via TV sets...
Bet:: At least one million users will access the web/internet via their television sets by the end of 2001.
Via: phone line, not at all 16% xDSL cable modem 19% 17% settop box/cable 39% 9%
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On line US Revenue CIO Congress
Real growth in commerce?
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Who buys what on line in 2002?
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Underlying Technologies
Merchant Servers
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Microsoft
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Open Market
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SUN
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iCat
Cyber Agencies
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CKS
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Organic
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DoubleClick
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Underlying Technologies
Incentive Systems (money surrogate)
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Digital IQ - Coupons
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Netcentives - Frequent Flyer Miles Impulse Buy Network Buyer’s Network
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Narrative - Direct Response
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Sweepstakes - Yoyodyne
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e-Bay - Auctions Cyber “Consumer Reports”
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Junglee
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Jango
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NECX
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Channels
More Cybermediaries Bring Buyers and Sellers Together
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Yahoo
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FastParts, Inc.
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Instill Corp
Consumer Magnets Buyers With Useful Information link to Manufacturers & Service Providers
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Auto-by-Tel
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Get-Smart.com
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Junglee
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NECX
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Predictions that will change your job
As Cybermediaries Gain Momentum They could Control Buying Process
Existing Suppliers Risk Being Supplanted by Startups That Will Own the Internet channel
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Example: Amazon.Com
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Atoms represent “money”, ownership, … risk IT responsible for the infrastructure for a wide range of activities: advertising, selling, delivery, billing, support, etc. For many, the WEB is the Interface CIO Congress
New or old money… it’s just bits
Credit ATM / Prepaid Prepaid Check Cash
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Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!
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Buying & selling stock: what a pain!
Faxes? E-signatures are legal in GA
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Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace
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Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits
Atoms (mass) money statements bills / checks coupons Electrons, etc. (massless) database, smart card, credit card, debit card web access bill present. / check free cyber-coupons stock statements, reports database, web web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc.
private placements web access, email trade confirmation mail voting direct trades
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Scalability
User-built Scalables aka Clusters are like nothing we’ve seen before...
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Billions Of Clients
Every device will be “intelligent” Doors, rooms, cars…
Computing will be ubiquitous
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Not shown: ECG; GPS; PCS; Pilot Compass; altimeter Libretto, .5mm pencil Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army
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Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters… 1 GB CIO Congress
Billions Of Clients Need Millions Of Servers
All clients networked to servers
May be nomadic or on-demand Fast clients want faster servers Servers provide
Shared Data
Control
Coordination
Communication Mobile clients Servers Clients Server Super server Fixed clients
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Cluster: Shared What?
Shared Memory Multiprocessor
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Multiple processors, one memory
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all devices are local
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DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN
Shared Disk Cluster
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an array of nodes
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all shared common disks
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VAXcluster + Oracle
Shared Nothing Cluster
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each device local to a node
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ownership may change
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Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack
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SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
Standard (I.e. commodity) platform
The SAN (System Area Network) standard makes the network ubiquitous … and great!
Common operating system for platform, reducing vendor and customer costs, and enables affordable, standard apps
Cluster technology
Apps are TRANPARENT!!!
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SNAP Systems circa 2000
Portables Person servers (PCs) Mobile Nets Wide-area global ATM network Local & global data comm world Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals Telecomputers aka Internet Terminals ???
TC=TV+PC home ...
(CATV or ATM or satellite) ATM & Ethernet: to PC, workstation, & servers scalable computers built from PCs & SANs Centralized & departmental servers built from PCs A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment
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Scaling dimensions include:
reliability… including always up
number of nodes
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most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane
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highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node
location within a region or continent
time-scale I.e. machine generations
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SAN: Standard Interconnect
Gbps Ethernet: 110 MBps
LAN faster than memory bus?
PCI: 70 MBps
1 GBps links in lab.
UW SCSI: 40 MBps
100$ port cost soon
Port is computer FW SCSI: 20 MBps SCSI: 5 MBps
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Basic Argument for x-Disks
Future disk controller is a super-computer.
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1 bips processor 128 MB dram 100 GB disk plus one arm Connects to SAN via high-level protocols
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RPC, HTTP, DCOM, Kerberos, Directory Services,….
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Commands are RPCs management, security,….
Services file/web/db/… requests Managed by general-purpose OS with good dev environment Move apps to disk to save data movement
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All God’s Children Have Clusters!
Buying Computing By the Slice
People are buying computers by the dozens
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Computers only cost 1k$/slice!
Clustering them together
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“Commercial” NT Clusters
16-node Tandem Cluster
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64 cpus
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2 TB of disk
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Decision support
45-node Compaq Cluster
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140 cpus
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14 GB DRAM
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4 TB RAID disk
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OLTP (Debit Credit)
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1 B tpd (14 k tps)
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Tandem Oracle/NT
27,383 tpmC
71.50 $/tpmC
4 x 6 cpus
384 disks =2.7 TB
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Loki: Pentium Clusters for Science
http://loki-www.lanl.gov/
16 Pentium Pro Processors x 5 Fast Ethernet interfaces + 2 Gbytes RAM + 50 Gbytes Disk + 2 Fast Ethernet switches + Linux…………………...
= 1.2 real Gflops for $63,000 (but that is the 1996 price) Beowulf project is similar http://cesdis.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/peopl e/becker/beowulf.html
Our Tax Dollars At Work ASCI for Stockpile Stewardship
Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2) LNL/Cray: ?
Maui Supercomputer Center
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512x1 SP2
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NCSA Cluster
The National Center for Supercomputing Applications University of Illinois @ Urbana
500 Pentium cpus, 2k disks, SAN Compaq + HP +Myricom A Super Computer for 3M$ Classic Fortran/MPI programming NT + DCOM programming model
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4 B PC’s (1 Bips, .1GB dram, 10 GB disk 1 Gbps Net, B=G) The Bricks of Cyberspace
Cost 1,000 $
Come with
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NT
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DBMS
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High speed Net
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System management
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GUI / OOUI
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Tools
Compatible with everyone else
CyberBricks
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Some Tera-Byte Databases
Kilo
The Web: 1 TB of HTML TerraServer 1 TB of images Several other 1 TB (file) servers Mega Giga Hotmail: 7 TB of email Sloan Digital Sky Survey: 40 TB raw, 2 TB cooked EOS/DIS (picture of planet each week)
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15 PB by 2007 Tera Peta Federal Clearing house: images of checks Exa
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15 PB by 2006 (7 year history) Nuclear Stockpile Stewardship Program 10 Exabytes (???!!) Zetta
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Yotta
Info Capture
A letter
You can record everything you see or hear or read.
A novel A Movie
What would you do with it?
Library of Congress (text)
How would you LoC (image) organize & analyze it?
Video 8 PB/lifetime (10GB/h) All Disks
All Tapes
Audio 30 TB (10KB/s) Read/write: 8 GB (words) See: http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html
Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta
A novel LoC (text) LoC (sound + cinema) All Disks All Tapes Kilo Mega Giga Tera Peta Exa Zetta Yotta A letter A Movie LoC (image) All Photos All
Now how do you find or use the rich information
Need the system to: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.
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SmartMedia Technologies
Context Relevance Image Recognition for Objects Speech Recognition Image Recognition, Lexical Cues Transcripts Close Caption Color B&W Brightness Contrast Volume Lexical Analysis Previews - Power Point, PDF, Viewing Video, Sound, Artwork Speech-Music
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Meta Information
Virage Video Cataloger CIO Congress
Telepresence … being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling
Telepresentations
Telemeetings The “work”
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Motivation: Telepresentations
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Presenter and/or audience telepresent NOT: meeting or collaboration settings Forget the nasty social issues!
Mostly one-way
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Telepresentation Elements
Slides
Audio
Video
Script, text comments, hyperlinks, etc.
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Telepresentations: The Essentials
Slide and audio a must
Add some video (low quality) to make us feel good
Storage and transmission costs low
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Telepresentations: The Killer App
Increased attendance & lower travel costs
Practical and low-cost NOW
e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real space, 20,000 visitors on Internet http://research.microsoft.com/acm97
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Today’s Experiment
Would you like to pause, rewind, browse?
Do you wish you could have seen this
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At home?
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At another time?
How much does a present speaker add? How much would you pay for real presence?
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Telework: It takes screens, sound, and bandwidth, stupid
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http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/
“
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.
” Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)
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Telecommuting versus time
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Teleworking CW 9/1/97
15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies (screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc.
Are telecommuters more productive?
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30% yes
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50% same 4% no 16% don’t know Are telecommuters more accessible?
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13% yes
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40% same 40% no 7% don’t know
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Telepresence
hold a meeting of type, m university or technical course interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”, with p, distributed persons with as much interactivity and feeling such that people prefer being telepresent meetings are provably more productive meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous
Mobile videophone CIO Congress
Honda Robot CIO Congress
Living in Cyberspace CIO Congress
SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment
POTS (legacy services) IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute LAN Phone PC
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PC
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NC* Phone Phone *NC, NetPC,
Problems of living & working in Cyberspace: socio vs technical
Isolation & loneliness
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need for communication/stimulation
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chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas
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loss of group/teamwork skills danger of becoming “terminal” interruptions & focus lack of support staff to help, answer ?s
supervision and ability to have 1:1 unclear that many people want it…
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A People Model: Who wants to be in Cyberspace?
Spock formal (in writing) Analyticals.. being right, detailed email
anal retentives
Drivers … results orient.
broadcast - push
megalo maniacs
Managing Interpersonal Relationships (MIR) 2D Model Self-control informal (verbal) Sally Field Amiables … consensus builders --------------chat----------------
spineless wimps
Expressives...
want recognition, need contact
psychotics
Souter Evangelism
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Swaggert