Transcript Housing and Economic Outlook National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies April 26, 2012 David Crowe Chief Economist.

Housing and Economic Outlook
National Association of Local Housing
Finance Agencies
April 26, 2012
David Crowe
Chief Economist
Builder Sentiment Up since September 2011
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
30
Index
25
20
10
0
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Index, SA
30
25
April ‘12 = 25
20
15
10
5
0
10q1
10q2
10q3
10q4
11q1
11q2
11q3
11q4
12q1
Quarterly Data Message
Total Payroll Employment
Thousands, Average monthly change
400
March ‘12 = 120K
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
07
08
09
10
11
12
Unemployment Rate
% of Labor Force
11
10
9
8
March ‘12 = 8.2%
7
6
5
4
07
08
09
10
11
12
Total Personal Income
Annualized % change
15%
10%
5%
Feb ‘12 = 2.6%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
07
08
09
10
11
12
Real Gross Domestic Product
Annualized % change
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
07
08
09
10
11
Consumer Confidence Index
Index, 1985=100
120
110
100
90
March ‘12 = 70.1
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
07
08
09
10
11
12
Single-family Building Permits
Thousands
1,250
1,150
1,050
950
850
750
650
March ‘12 = 462K
550
450
350
250
07
08
09
10
11
12
Multifamily Building Permits
Thousands
500
450
400
350
March ‘12 = 285K
300
250
200
150
100
07
08
09
10
11
12
Underlying Fundamentals
Household Shortfall
Demographic Trends Are Positive
114
2.5%
Number of Households
1 to 2 million gap
(million households)
113
112
2.0%
111
110
Percentage Change
109
1.5%
108
1.0%
107
106
0.5%
105
104
% Chg HHLDS
# HHLDS
Linear (# HHLDS)
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0.0%
2002
103
Housing Fundamentals Remain Good
Mortgage Rates
20
Percent
18
16
14
12
10
Fixed-Rate
8
6
5.2
Adjustable-Rate
4
3.2
2
0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
House Prices At Long-term Ratio
House Price-to-Income Ratio
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.2 average
3.0
3.2
2.5
2.0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Markets Are Local
Seriously Delinquent Loans Trending Lower
Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, % of all loans
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
But Delinquency Inventory Varies by State
Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies month’s supply at annual sales rate
24 states with
less than six
months inventory
of distressed
U.S. = 8.4 months
Six states with
more than one
year’s inventory
of distressed
FL
NJ
MD
IL
DE
CT
WA
CA
NY
RI
UT
IN
OR
DC
SC
GA
NC
PA
MI
NV
NM
HI
LA
VA
ME
MA
TN
MN
WI
OH
AZ
NH
MO
CO
MS
AL
KY
ID
TX
IA
OK
KS
VT
AR
WV
WY
NE
MT
SD
AK
ND
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Increase in Employment Greater Than
National Average
Change in Employment
Below U.S. average
0.6% to < 0.9%
0.9% to < 1.3%
1.3% to < 1.8%
1.8% or greater
Increase in Building Permits Greater
Than National Average
Change in Building permits
Below U.S. average
6.7% to < 11.7%
11.7% to < 18.3%
18.3% to < 31.2%
31.2% or greater
Change in House Prices Relative to U.S.
Change in House prices
Below U.S. average
-4.2% to < -2.8%
-2.8% to < -1.7%
-1.7% to < -0.6%
-0.6% and greater
NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index
– The Number of Markets is Improving
120
98
100
80
99
101
Mar 12
Apr 12
76
60
41
40
30
23
20
12
0
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
101 Improving Metropolitan Areas
AR Little Rock
FL Tampa
CA Fresno
GA Rome
CA Merced
IA
CO Boulder
MD Cumberland
Hagerstown
NC Charlotte
OH Springfield
TX College Station
Goldsboro
OK Tulsa
Dallas
Ames
ME Lewiston
Greensboro
OR Corvallis
Laredo
Des Moines
MI Detroit
Greenville
OR Portland
Longview
PA Altoona
McAllen
Erie
Midland
Denver
Dubuque
Flint
Rocky Mount
Fort Collins
Iowa City
Grand Rapids
Winston-Salem
Greeley
Sioux City
Lansing
ND Bismarck
Lancaster
Odessa
CT New Haven
Waterloo
Monroe
Fargo
Pittsburgh
San Antonio
Muskegon
Grand Forks
Williamsport
Tyler
DC Washington
FL Cape Coral
Crestview
ID Boise City
Coeur d’Alene
IN Elkhart
Saginaw
NE Lincoln
MN Minneapolis
NJ Ocean City
MO Columbia
NY Buffalo
SC Charleston
Spartanburg
SD Sioux Falls
Victoria
UT Provo
Deltona
Evansville
Jacksonville
Indianapolis
Jefferson City
Glens Falls
TN Chattanooga
VT Burlington
North Port
Lafayette
Joplin
Rochester
Kingsport
WV Huntington
Kansas City
Utica
Nashville
WY Casper
Orlando
KY Louisville
Panama City LA Lake Charles MS Jackson
Punta Gorda
Monroe
NC Burlington
OH Columbus
Dayton
TX Amarillo
Brownsville
St. George
Cheyenne
101 Improving
Metropolitan
Areas
Improving
Markets
Forecast
Real GDP Growth – Hesitated but Improving
Q/Q Percent Change, SAAR
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Sales Dipped, But Due to Recover
New and Existing Single-Family Home Sales
1.6
Million
Million
1.4
8
7
1.2
6
Existing (R)
1.0
5
0.8
4
New (L)
0.6
3
0.4
2
0.2
1
0.0
0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Single-Family Starts – Waiting for Job Recovery
Thousands
2,000
1995-2003
1,256,000
2010
471,000
2011
433,000
-8%
2012
506,000
17%
2013
660,000
30%
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
Trough to Current:
Mar 09 = 353,000
Mar 12 = 462,000
+31%
400
200
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Multifamily Housing Starts
Healthy Response from Growth in Renters
Thousands
600
1995-2003
2010
2011
2012
2013
450
331,000
114,000
177,000
216,000
235,000
55%
22%
9%
300
Trough to Current:
4th Q 09 = 82,000
1st Q 12 = 192,000
134%
150
0
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Residential Remodeling – Continuous Improvement
Owner-Occupied Improvements
150
Billions 2005 $, SAAR
YR
2011
2012
2013
140
130
120
4Q/4Q Chg
3.5%
12.0%
7.9%
110
100
90
80
70
60
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NAHB Economic and Housing Forecast.
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Long Road Back to Normal* for
Single-Family Housing Starts – Q4 2013
Single-Family Housing Starts
Relative to Normal
Less than 45%
45% to 49%
49% to 61%
61% to 70%
Greater than 70%
* Normal Production is measured as SingleFamily housing starts between Q1 2000 and
Q4 2003
* Normal is the average from Q1 2000 to Q4 2003
Questions?
Answers:
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