Transcript What’s the Buzz About Climate Change?

Nothing But the Facts About
Green Building, Density, and
Climate Change
Today’s Land Use Jargon
VMTs
GHGs
TOD
H & T Index
HIA
SCS
CAP
HOV
LID
RTP
LEED ND
Form Based Codes Complete Streets Walk Score
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The Climate Change Scene
• Public pressure to take action
• Federal impetus through Clean Air Act issues
• Reluctance to act sooner at the federal level
spawned action at state and local level
• Began with green building, energy efficiency
• Expanded to include land development issues
State and Local Actions
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Leading the way:
California
King County, Washington (Seattle)
Massachusetts
Many local governments
Increasing Federal Involvement
• More policies and legislation:
– Obama’s Livability Principles
– Sustainable Communities partnership between
HUD, DOT, and EPA
– Clear tie to upcoming reauthorization of federal
transportation bill
Increasing Federal Intrusion—
The New Land Use Paradigm
• Steer development towards existing communities
and infrastructure
• Denser is better
• Transit is more efficient
• Get people to drive less
• Increased federal role in
incentivizing state and local land use approaches
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NAHB Action Steps To Date
• NAHB policies on Smart Growth, green building and
climate change
• ANSI approved National Green Building Standard
• Comprehensive research--7 studies and summary
publication, all available for free at
www.nahb.org/climatechange
• Research on Housing and Transportation
Affordability Index
NAHB Research
• Staff studies:
– Residential energy use of new versus existing
homes
– Residential versus other sectors
– Embodied energy in materials in a home
– Vehicle emissions and compactness of
development
NAHB Third Party Research
• EcoNorthwest researched literature on
connection between development density
and pattern and climate change
• Abt Associates examined literature on many
key land use planning factors related to
density, development, and climate change
NAHB Third Party Research
EcoNorthwest:
• Found “no actionable body of literature”
• Concluded most studies and reports are
based on planning rhetoric and ideology
frameworks
• Literature not sufficient to warrant change in
land use policies
Is Higher Density a Solution
to Climate Change?
• The idea: Higher residential density reduces driving and
therefore the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to
climate change
 Density
 Driving
 GHGs
• Research demonstrates a link between residential density and
travel behavior, but leaves questions:
–How strong is this link?
–What is the direction of cause and effect?
–What factors affect this link?
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Abt Associates Research Findings
• Density directly influences VMT and mode choice
but most studies find that the impact is modest:
– doubling residential density reduces VMT and trips taken
by only about 5 percent
• Dense developments in the middle of nowhere will
have little effect on travel behavior
• Density at the destination—place of employment—
was more important than residential density in
shaping commuters’ decisions to use transit
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Abt Findings on Travel Behavior
• Street patterns and pedestrian-oriented design have
a weak impact on auto use; they have a bigger
impact on walking and bicycling
• Transit availability has a small impact on auto use
• Massive investments in new rail lines would be
required to substantially increase ridership
• Other features of built environment and other
factors are more important influences on consumer
behavior
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Findings on Travel Behavior
• Multiple interacting factors including a host of
market, socioeconomic, and demographic issues
influence consumer behavior
• Mobility increases with income, so higher-income
people take more trips and own more cars
• Lack of affordable housing near jobs a factor
• Commute also not the most important factor in
households’ location decisions
The Role of Business Decentralization
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• Cities have been decentralizing for more than 50 years
• Less than a quarter of jobs are now located in the
central business district of a metropolitan area
• Suburb to suburb commutes are twice as common as
suburb to central city ones
• Transit works best in densely developed monocentric
cities with centralized employment
• Yet cities increasingly do not fit this description
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Increases in Two-Worker Households
• Two-worker households have been increasing, and
with that the complexity of household location
decisions
• Business decentralization means these two workers
are more likely to commute to different locations
• Families with children tend to locate further from
work; childless couples have shorter commutes
• Non-work travel often involves multiple destinations
that are not well suited to public transit options
Many Factors, Many Choices,
Many Solutions
• More and better density and transit aren’t a bad
thing
• But it’s not as simple as denser is better and transit
will cool the planet
• Powerful market forces at work
• Host of factors and trade-offs
• Complex to manage for multiple objectives
NAHB Approach and Next Steps
• Oppose mandates that dictate local land use
patterns, especially from the federal level
• Encourage market-driven solutions
• Support voluntary green building
• Educate consumers on how to reduce their
impacts
More NAHB Action Steps
• Extensive Outreach:
• Hill
• Agencies—in discussions
with HUD now
• National organizations
• HBAs
• Land Use Toolkit underway