Transcript Whither Nanotechnology Ralph C. Merkle Xerox PARC www.merkle.com Seventh Elba-Foresight Conference on Nanotechnology April, 1999 Rome, Italy www.foresight.org/Conferences.

Whither Nanotechnology
Ralph C. Merkle
Xerox PARC
www.merkle.com
1
Seventh Elba-Foresight
Conference on
Nanotechnology
April, 1999
Rome, Italy
www.foresight.org/Conferences
2
The goal: nanotechnology
(a.k.a. molecular manufacturing)
• Fabricate most structures that are
specified with molecular detail and
which are consistent with physical law
• Get essentially every atom in the right
place
• Inexpensive manufacturing costs
(~10-50 cents/kilogram)
http://nano.xerox.com/nano
3
Where we are today
• We can make only an infinitesimal
fraction of what’s possible
• We spray atoms around almost
randomly
• We pay many millions of dollars per
kilogram for the thin layer on top of a
computer chip that actually computes
4
Possible arrangements
of atoms
What we can make today
(not to scale)
.
5
The goal of molecular
nanotechnology: a
healthy bite.
.
6
Molecular
Manufacturing Systems
We don’t have
molecular manufacturing
today.
.
We must develop
fundamentally new
capabilities
What we can make today
(not to scale)
7
Should we actively pursue
the development of
molecular nanotechnology?
• Is it feasible?
• Is it valuable?
• Can we do things today to speed it’s
development?
8
The good news
It is now generally accepted
that molecular nanotechnology
is feasible and valuable.
(This took a few decades)
9
The principles of physics, as far as I can see,
do not speak against the possibility of
maneuvering things atom by atom. It is not an
attempt to violate any laws; it is something, in
principle, that can be done; but in practice, it
has not been done because we are too
big.
Richard Feynman, 1959
http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/feynman.html
10
Most interesting structures that are at
least substantial local minima on a
potential energy surface can probably be
made one way or another.
Richard Smalley
Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996
11
The bad news
There’s still a great deal of
confusion and disagreement
about what to do
12
What needs to be done
Experimental work to advance
existing capabilities
Theoretical work to clarify
pathways and objectives
13
Today
Overview of the
development of
molecular
nanotechnology
Produc
Products
Core molecular
Products
Products
manufacturing
Products
capabilities
Products Products
Products
Products
Products Products
Products Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Products
Produc
Products
Products Products
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Products
Issues
Positional control
Self replication
Idiosyncratic versus systematic
Making big things
How long
15
A proposal for a programmable
molecular positional device
16
Issues with positional control
Speed
Size
Error rates
Imperfect environment
Tip characteristics
17
Proposal for a self replicating
device: an assembler
http://www.foresight.org/UTF/Unbound_LBW/chapt_6.html
18
Von Neumann architecture
for a self replicating system
Universal
Computer
Universal
Constructor
http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/vonNeumann.html
19
Drexler’s architecture
for an assembler
Molecular
computer
Molecular
constructor
Positional device
Tip chemistry
20
Complexity of self replicating systems (bits)
C program
808
Von Neumann's universal constructor500,000
Internet worm (Robert Morris, Jr., 1988)
500,000
Mycoplasma capricolum
1,600,000
E. Coli
9,278,442
Drexler's assembler
100,000,000
Human
6,400,000,000
NASA Lunar
Manufacturing Facility
over 100,000,000,000
http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/selfRep.html
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A C program that prints out
an exact copy of itself
main(){char q=34, n=10,*a="main()
{char q=34,n=10,*a=%c%s%c;
printf(a,q,a,q,n);}%c";printf(a,q,a,q,n);}
For more information, see the Recursion Theorem:
http://nano.xerox.com/nanotech/selfRep.html
22
English translation:
Print the following statement twice,
the second time in quotes:
“Print the following statement twice,
the second time in quotes:”
23
Idiosyncratic vs systematic
Idiosyncratic view: each new thing that we
synthesize requires some new and
unique method of making it which takes
much time and effort to work out.
Systematic view: new things are made by
using old tools in different ways to
rearrange standard parts.
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Is nanotechnology only
about small things?
Nanotechnology sounds like it’s about
making small things.
But it’s actually about the precision with
which we make things of all sizes,
including very big things.
25
How long?
• We don’t know
• Trends in computer hardware suggest
early in the next century — perhaps in
the 2010 to 2020 time frame
• How long it takes depends on what we
do. A focused effort will greatly speed
development.
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It’s possible to think that
“nanotechnology”
•
•
•
•
•
Won’t involve positional control
Won’t involve self replication
Won’t be systematic
Will only make small things
Will take 100 years
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Can we abandon these principles
without compromising the goal?
•
•
•
•
•
Positional control
Self replication
Systematic methods
Products of all sizes
A focused effort to develop the
technology within our lifetimes
28