Transcript The Future of GIS …if I really knew, would I still be here? 11/19/2007 Ron Briggs, UTDallas GISC 6381 GIS Fundamentals.

The Future of GIS
…if I really knew, would I still be here?
11/19/2007 Ron Briggs, UTDallas
GISC 6381 GIS Fundamentals
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Popular Mechanics, 1954???
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Lessons:
1. There are perils in predicting the future!
2. Never believe what you find on the Internet!
Picture submitted to an image modification competition in
2004, taken from an original photo found on U.S. Navy web
site of a submarine maneuvering room console mock-up at
the Smithsonian Institute in 2000
http://www.snopes.com/inboxer/hoaxes/computer.asp
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Uses of GIS: no change
The primary three:
• manage data
• analyze data
• communicate information*
BUT
• relative importance shifting
• implementation technology changing
*information=data which serves a purpose
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Changing Emphases:
From Data to Analysis
Spatial
5% Analysis
10-15%
Attribute Tagging
75%
Data Conversion:
Past
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Spatial Analysis
Attribute Tagging
Data
Conversion
Present/Future
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Changing Emphases
From Description to Simulation & Modeling
Visual simulation &
virtual reality:
Picture worth a
thousand words:
maps & diagrams of
how is, or how was
real time display of
how is, and how might be
-forest fire
-freeway traffic flow
Web portals serve static
data sets
Web portals serve continuous
sensor-derived data
Past
Future
Symbolic models: based on logical
Iconic models: scaled down
representations of the real thing
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relationships in mathematical or
statistical form
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9:15 am
4:30 pm
10:15 pm
Population density (green is high) at different times during the
day tracked by cell phone data. Rome, Italy, July 10, 2006.
(note: cell phone location is constantly tracked by the network
to enable calls to be received.)
Applications: real time traffic information, transportation
planning, taxi-cab location, retail store location, etc., etc..
Source: The Economist, March 10-16, 2007 p. 20.
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Changing Emphases
from 2-D description to 4-D interaction
Past
• 2-D flat map displays
– User as observer
Future
• Effective 3-D visualization
– Via the merger of CAD and GIS?
– What is the data model?
• 4-D incorporation of time: “The time has come for time.”
– Via agent-based modeling / cellular automata? Or how?
• agents (e.g. vehicles, fires or people) interacting over time in a raster (cell)-based
environment according to established rules
• 5, 6 and 7-D incorporation of touch (pressure, texture, temperature), sound and
smell into modeling/simulation environment
– Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World “feelies” become reality?
• User as participant
– Users (researchers, professionals, the public) interact with the model
– Participatory GIS: the public as the planner
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Changing Emphases:
Out of this world
Past
– GIS applied to Planet Earth
Future
– GIS as a methodology for the analysis of spheres
• Other planets—Mars, Jupiter,
• The human brain
– One earth but many brains
– & visa-a-versa: does the brain use “maps” for organization?
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Technological Trends Underlying the Transition
Defense Conversion (and other) spin-offs
• Location via GPS
– millimeter accuracy
– available in every cellphone for E911
Information Technology Evolution
• Interoperability: easier sharing of data
between users, and among vendor products
–
–
–
–
• super high capacity mass storage
–
pettabyte and more systems
• high resolution (<1m) satellite remote •
sensing
– High resolution: 60 cms now, 10cms
soon?
– Real time Google Earth?
•
• the communication revolution
Metadata
Spatial Data Transfer Standards
OpenGIS
Mash-ups
commercially enhanced data
– public data made dramatically more
usable/useful
– Navtech maps replace TIGER
spatial data tools in commercial DBMS* and
software dev. environments (e.g. VB**)
– ESRI SDE (spatial database engine)
– ESRI Map Objects & ArcObjects
– super high capacity networks
(Internet X), even to the home
• NSF’s 100x100 project:
•
100 Megabits to 100 million homes
– wireless (cellular) communication
with anything that moves anywhere
on earth
3-tier computing, separating:
– user interface (client workstation)
– analysis (applications server)
– data (multiple distributed data servers)
*DBMS: data base management systems
**Visual Basic
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Consequences
GIS gone by 2010?
(I used to say by year 2000)
Hopefully not!
…it will become mainstream
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Wither GIS?
some scenarios
• fundamental component of IS/IT
– value explode, name gone
• foundation for all data management?
– at best: geography becomes the basis
for data management
– at least: spatial data base
management tools come with all
commercial DBMSs so geography
can enhance the enterprise data base
• gis components embedded in
everyday objects
– outage management for utilities
– city business package
– package tracking system (pizza or
spare parts)
• general public as GIS analyst
– Web-based community information
systems
– cell phones, pagers, cars, truck cabs,
aircraft cockpits
• gis capabilities available as modules
within standard software application
development environments
– VB, C++, Java, Peoplesoft, Delphi
• gis/am/fm functionality purchased
as undifferentiated component of a
business application information
system
• neighborhood crime control : police
or citizen?
– poets that don’t know it
• Google Earth Sketch-up
– Bloggers as GIS analysts: they
know the local scene
• And Google is bringing free,
simplified mapping tools
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Consequences: for GI Services
• Services now the 4th “S” in GIS
• location based services
•
•
•
•
Map
Geocode
Route
Analyze
for organization
facilities
customers
deliveries
the market
. for individual
where I am
where I want to go
how I get there
what is there
• Content tailored for current location, not the desktop
• Mobile
• Handheld
• Interactive
• Evolution involves
Past
Future
– Few applications -> many and varied
– Few users ->
many
– Standalone ->
web
– Fixed ->
mobile
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Consequences: for GI Specialists
(the fifth “S” for GIS?)
geospatial information scientists, specialists (or students)
– appreciative of the broad ranging, integrative role geospatial data
can play
• location is the most common common denominator for all data
– highly knowledgeable with respect to the unique challenges of
geospatial data
• The challenges posed by a spherical earth (datums, projections,etc.)
• The complexity of spatial data representation in 2-D and 3-D
• The challenges of spatial statistics and modeling
– fully conversant with mainstream information technology
• and how to store and program spatial objects
– sufficient expertise in an application area (geology, local
government, marketing, etc.) to make a contribution.
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Consequences for GIS
Data is still at the heart
• Dominant IT (Information technology) issues:
– Hardware in the 1970s and 1980s
– Software in the 1980s and 1990s
– Data in the 2000s
• Not an issues of acquiring data, but of managing it
• Will we be short of it, or drowning in it?
• Will its availability be
– Plentiful and cheap
– in infinite detail, if you can afford it
– Severely curtailed by legal controls
to ensure personal privacy
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Consequences for GIS:
is a Tragedy of the Commons in the making?
• Invasions of privacy through detailed data collection and its
pervasive distribution produces a backlash of demand for privacy
–
No call, no spam, no appraisal photos, no red light cameras (now
reversed): are they the beginning?
– Could geotagging with RFID devices become reality
• From pets to people
• for sex offenders, service personnel, employees, evacuees, everybody?
• The expense of data production, but the ease of re-production and
distribution, reduces the value of data to zero and chokes off its
availability
– Is public domain data the information age equivalent of the agricultural
commons?
What are the appropriate public policy responses?
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Or is this the future?
A Self Generating System
Better data
More investment in
Data/GIS
More GIS use
Better decisions
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Or this?
Microdrone $21,367
Base Station $19,424
Video Transmitter $1,545
Video Receiver $1,000
Daylight Video $1,545
Lowlight Video $3,100
GPS Hold $1,934
Complete Package $59,681
August 2007
Source: http://www.microdrones.com/
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Conclusion
• Our only model for the future is the past
• think back as many years as you are looking
forward
– change has been both revolutionary.. and glacial
• don’t forget that the pace of change is
accelerating
– maybe just gearing-up for the information age,
not reaching its climax
• but remember,we have to get there from here
– can you envision a path?
• if we knew the future, we wouldn’t be here!
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GIS Futures
Some Detail on earlier concepts
• What GIS Technology Could Deliver
– Efficiency and Effectiveness
– Targeted Communication
– data as an institutional asset
• Operating Environments in which Delivered
–
–
–
–
business and governments
computing technology
information architectures
interoperability
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What GIS Technology Could Deliver:
Efficiency and Effectiveness
• Cost efficient, quality service to customers: the key to
future business success
• mapping to manage potentially transforms organizations
• geography is the key to cost efficiency for pizza delivery or cellular
radio towers
• communications with citizens: the key to future public
sector success
• map based information is the key to intuitive information delivery
–
–
–
–
travel directions (www.mapquest.com)
natural or social environmental degradation (http://www.epa.gov/tri/)
land ownership (www.dallascad.org)
General public data (www.accu-source.com, www.publicdata.com,
www.openrecords.org)
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What GIS Technology Could Deliver:
Targeted Communication
Displaying data differently for today’s target
constituency:
*CC: Chamber of Commerce
•
•
•
•
•
•
DRT: Daughters of the Republic of Texas
governor
DAR: Daughters of the American Revolution
VFW: Veterans of Foreign Wars
recalcitrant group of legislators
CCNA: Canyon Creek Neighborhood Association
activist (pissed-off) citizen posse
CC, DRT, DAR, VFW, CCNA Tuesday luncheon*
general public
6th grade class
Do-It-Yourself extraction from Societal Databases
• large, networked databases accessible to public at low/no cost
• free browser software (e.g ArcExplorer)
Content tailored for current location
• The mobile, handheld, interactive GI services revolution
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What GIS Technology Could Deliver:
Data as an Institutional Asset
Data holdings, managed by GIS, as an asset on
private and public corporation balance sheets.
• no company does this today, yet
• billions spent on data acquisition and development
In the information age, information is an asset no
different from buildings, unsold inventory, and
machinery.
In 2000s, companies delivering information content
become dominant over hardware (1980s) and
software (1990s) companies.
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Operating Environments:
Business & Governments
• customers and citizens take charge
–
–
–
–
requirements for service defined by customer/citizen not the provider
demand more in shorter time at lower cost than you ever intended to deliver
lower taxes/prices and more service
Henry’s “any color you want as long as its black” no longer cuts it
• competition is relentless
– more people wanting to do what you do
– private sector assumes (or re-assumes) many gov. tasks.
• change is constant
– Government evolves from driver to consumer of technology
– Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) software rather than custom designed
• decentralization to the individual
– Much new technology is not new: its been around for a while, so what’s new?
• Computers, video recorders, fax, wireless
– Dramatic price drops make it as available to individuals as to organizations
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Operating Environments:
Computing Technology: Predictions from Spring 96
• 2,000AD desktop machine
– 1,000 MIPS/MHertz
– 8 Gigabyte RAM (permits data in memory)
– 100+ mb/sec comm. line (to the home?)
• Windows95/NT merge challenges UNIX
• Java /Netscape challenges Microsoft
(prediction as of Spring 96)
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Operating Environments:
Computing Technology: Predictions from Fall 99
• Desktop loses its dominance
– Variety of computing appliances: palmtops on up
• Computers act rather than just process
– Old model: human enters data, computer processes it, human receives and acts
– New model: data from sensors & transducers, computer processes, computer
acts to get job done
• Data and computation become real time
– Old model: processing archived data to guide future action
– New Model: processing current data to control current action
• Information and its processing at any and every place
– Mobile and wireless dominate over fixed and wired
– Info access no matter where I am, where data resides, what its format is
Concepts derived from Tennenhouse, Director, DARPA, May 1998
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Operating Environments: Information Architecture
(more 1999 predictions which have come to pass)
• server and client clearly separated
– GIS vendors specialize in client and/or applications server
– mainstream database vendors provide data server(s)
(traditionally, GIS vendors used proprietary, not mainstream, databases)
• client systems primarily comprise browsers which receive data combined
with software as “applets” or objects from the applications server
– e.g. receive data and zoom/view software
– potentially simplifies software management
– big software systems are decomposed into components (“objects”), which are then
re-assembled by user (or developer) as desired.
• mainstream data base vendors meet GIS/AM/FM needs for:
– long transaction processing
• current DBMS systems assume immediate transaction processing, but
• a drawing or map takes time to be modified
– replication of data files
• considered a no-no in current DBMS, but
• two people need to work on the same map area
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Operating Environments:
Interoperability
•
Spatial Data Interchange Formats
•
– VPF (Vector Product Format): US
Military for map products; directly
useable by applications
– DXF (Data Exchange Format): originated
by AutoCAD
– SDTS (Spatial Data Transfer Standard): •
currently required for Federal Agencies
Except for VPF, involve translation (from
internal private to external public
format), therefore inefficient.
•
Between Standard Data Base Systems
–
COM/OLE (Common Object Model/Object Linking
and Embedding): originated by Microsoft
– CORBA (Common Object Request Broker
Architecture)
Two competing standards for object-based technology.
Between GIS Systems Themselves (for data)
–
–
–
–
– SQL (Structured Query Language)
• standardized (supposedly) user-oriented
(supposedly) data request
– ODBC (Open Database Connectivity)
• standardized (by Microsoft) programming
(‘call’) level interface to databases
11/19/2007 Ron Briggs, UTDallas
Between GIS Systems and other
applications
•
SQL3 --SQL extended to support spatial (and other
multimedia) data queries
ISO TC211--International Standards Organization
Tech. Committee on spatial data
ANSI X3L1 (American National Standards Institute,
GIS Committee)--US view for ISO
OGC (Open GIS Consortium)--Open Geodata
Interoperability Specification (OGIS)
Metadata--data describing data
–
–
datum and projection, accuracy and lineage, etc.
FGDC (Federal Geographic Data Committee)
Metadata standard
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Next Generation Satellites
•
•
NGA (National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency) signed NextView contracts for
development of next generation of commercial satellites, with DOD being given
priority access in times of need
Digitalglobe contract in fall 2003, focused on
– Higher resolution
– Delivery time to customer
• 3 hours now (Iraq war)
• Future: 90 minutes standard, 20 minutes “rush jobs”
– WorldView-1 launched September 2007
• .5 m panchromatic
• 1.7 days revisit
– WorldView-2 launch 2008
• .5 panchromatic and 1.8 multispectral (4)
• 1 day revisit
– Supplier for Google Earth
•
Orbimage contract in fall 2004
– OrbView 5 satellite to launch early 2007 (now early 2008)
– 0.41 m panchromatic, 1.64 m multispectral (4 bands)
– 3 m. position accuracy
– 3 day revisit
– Downlink imagery real time to ground station
Note: the award of this contract to Orbimage resulted in their acquisition of Space Imaging
(which failed to get the contract) in January 2006 and renaming of the combined entities as
GeoEye. OrbView 5 now called GeoEye-1
http://www.geoeye.com/corporate/constellation.htm
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