Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates Lunch with The Lawlor Group February 9, 2013 ~ Chicago, IL with support from.
Download ReportTranscript Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates Lunch with The Lawlor Group February 9, 2013 ~ Chicago, IL with support from.
Knocking at the College Door Projections of High School Graduates Lunch with The Lawlor Group February 9, 2013 ~ Chicago, IL with support from Background • Eighth edition of Knocking at the College Door going back to 1979 • Projections of high school graduates by state and race/ethnicity, including nonpublic graduates • Actual data through 2008-09; projections spanning 2009-10 through 2027-28 • Audience • Federal, state, and local policymakers • State educational agencies and school districts • Institutions: colleges and universities, public and private • • • schools Media Researchers Others Caveat Emptor • Assumed existing patterns continue indefinitely • Policy changes not explicitly modeled • Changes in accountability policies (i.e., high-stakes tests) • Variations in funding levels that affect progression • Underlying data • Reflect the 2008 recession but not all years of continued • economic slump May reflect spurious impacts resulting from the federal race/ethnicity data collection and reporting changes • Focus is on the traditional pipeline exclusively Projections of Postsecondary Enrollment of Adults 25 and Older 11.0 10.5 • Adult enrollment is 9.5 Millions projected to grow by 22 percent between Fall 2010 and Fall 2021. 10.0 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2021, Table 21. Admissions Hysteria!!!!!! “There are few experiences short of death, disease, injury or divorce that have as much potential for trauma for American families as the college admissions process. The first great rite of passage for young humans once was killing a wild animal. That was replaced by getting married, or getting a job. These days it is getting into college.” (Jay Mathews, washingtonpost.com, 5.23.2010) “The [admissions] process is far too important to the nation to be left solely in the hands of a few college administrators who are reluctant to explain their selections standards or model.” (Andy Pettis, editorial in The Washington Post, 5.16.2010) The Principal Themes 1. Changes in overall production 2. Continuing rapid diversification along racial/ethnic lines Both with substantial geographic variation U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to 2027-28 3.6 3.4 3.2 Millions 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 Peaked in 2010-11 at 3.4 million following 17 straight years of growth averaging 2.3% annually U.S. Public and Nonpublic High School Graduates by Region, 2003-04 to 2027-28 1.4 1.3 South 1.2 1.1 Millions 1.0 0.9 0.8 West 0.7 Midwest 0.6 Northeast 0.5 0.4 Contributions to the Nation’s Change in Total High School Graduates (Relative to 2008-09), by Region 2014-15 (6-yr Chg.) 2019-20 (11-yr Chg.) 2024-25 (16-yr. Chg) -150,000 -100,000 -50,000 West 0 Midwest 50,000 100,000 Northeast 150,000 South 200,000 250,000 Percent Change Between 2008-09 and 2019-20 in Total High School Graduates, by State AK WA MT ND OR NH VT ME MN MA SD NY RI MI CT PA IA NJ NE OH MD IL IN DE WV VA DC KS MO KY NC TN OK AR SC MS AL GA Decline TX LA WI ID WY NV UT CA AZ CO NM FL HI Growth 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 U.S. Nonpublic High School Graduates, 1996-97 to 2008-09 (Estimated); 2009-10 to 2027-28 (Projected) 340,000 325,000 310,000 295,000 280,000 265,000 250,000 235,000 220,000 205,000 190,000 U.S. Public High School Graduates by Race/ Ethnicity, 2008-09 (Actual); 2009-10 to 201920 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black non-Hispanic Hispanic White non-Hispanic Cumulative Percent Projected Change in U.S. Public High School Graduates Relative to 2008-09, by Race/Ethnicity 80% 68% 70% 60% 58% 50% 41% 40% 30% 30% 21% 20% 18% 13% 10% 2% 0% -10% -2% -5% -9% -9% -10% -12% -13% -20% -30% American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Cumulative Change in Percentage Points in non-White non-Hispanic Share of Public High School Graduates, by Region 16% 14% 12% 10% 8.7% 8% 6.9% 6% 6.5% 4% 4.3% 2% 0% West Midwest Northeast South Proportion of Minority Public High School Graduates, 2019-20 (Projected) AK WA MT ND OR NH VT ME MN MA SD NY RI MI CT PA IA NJ NE OH MD IL IN DE WV VA DC KS MO KY NC TN OK AR SC MS AL GA ≤ 10% TX LA WI ID WY NV UT CA AZ CO NM FL HI 50% + Total Production vs. Diversification of Projected Public High School Graduates by 2020 Percentage Point Change in Non-White Share of Public HSGs, 2009-2020 18% NV 16% 14% Slowing production, Rapid diversification Increasing production, Rapid diversification OR 12% TX FL 10% NJ CT DE CA MD ND 8% MA AK PA RI 6% IAKY AZ MN IL NE OK WA SD IN VA NYAR US NM KS GA NH WI HI MT MO 4% 2% VTMEMI ID NC CO WY UT TN WV OH MS AL 0% Slowing production, Incremental diversification -2% -20% -15% -10% Increasing production, Incremental diversification SC -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Percent Change in Total Production, 2009-2020 20% 25% Some Recent Phenomena Impacting the Projections • Fertility rates declining across the board 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 All origins Hispanic 2004 2007 White non-Hispanic 2009 Black non-Hispanic 2010 • Slowing immigration among Latinos (Pew, • Census Bureau) Impacts of the recession shifting students around Notes: Fertility rates measure the number of live births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. Birth and fertility rates for 2001–2009 shown in this report were revised using (intercensal) population estimates based on the 2000 and 2010 census. The revised rates may differ from the rates published previously, which were based on 2000 (postcensal) population estimates. Source: National Vital Statistics Report, Volume 61, Number 1, August 2012, Tables 1 and 5. Implications Converging Pressures in Fulfilling Society’s Needs • Serving a more diverse population • Pressure to produce well-educated talent to meet workforce needs • Ongoing fiscal challenges Education Requirements for Workforce Participation 100 7 10 11 10 Graduate/Professional 21 23 Bachelor’s 12 Associate’s 17 Some College 28 High School Less than High School 9 80 12 19 8 Percent of Jobs by Level of Education Required 10 60 40 19 17 40 34 30 10 11 10 1992 2007 2018 20 32 0 1973 Note: In 1973, some college and associate degrees were in the same category. Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce. Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults – U. S. & OECD Countries, 2009 Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2011 (via NCHEMS) Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults – U.S. and States, 2009 Source: NCHEMS Differences in College Attainment (Associate & Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults by Race/Ethnicity – U. S., 2008-2010 80% 25-34 Year-olds 70% 45-54 Year-olds 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% American Indian/ Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black nonHispanic Hispanic White nonHispanic Note: All differences between age groups of the same racial/ethnic group and between racial/ethnic groups are statistically beyond the 90% margins of error except for American Indians/Alaska Natives. 90% margins of error range from+/- 1% for American Indians/Alaska Natives aged 25-34 to +/- 0.1% for White non-Hispanics aged 45-54. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008-10 American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS). Via NCHEMS. Average Math Scores of 12th Graders on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) by Race/Ethnicity 320 310 20 26 300 290 40 21 27 33 280 270 260 250 1973 1978 1982 1986 Black 1990 1992 Hispanic 1994 White Source: NCES, Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Minorities, 2007; NAEP. 1996 1999 2004 2008 Percent of 18-24 Year-Olds Enrolled in Postsecondary Institutions by Race/Ethnicity 45 40 12.1 35 18.4 30 25 8.0 20 11. 4 15 10 5 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 Black 2000 2005 Hispanic Source: NCES, Status and Trends in the Education of Racial and Ethnic Minorities, 2010. 2006 White 2007 2008 Percent of Working-Age Adults (18 to 64) Employed in Each Occupational Category by Race/Ethnicity – U.S. (2005-06) 19.6 16.1 12.4 10.0 9.9 7.5 8.4 4.3 2.9 1.8 1.5 2.1 0.5 1.0 4.3 4.5 6.4 3.3 2.4 2.2 1.7 2.4 5 5.0 4.5 5.6 7.1 6.9 7.7 7.3 10 7.3 11.9 13.1 10.5 11.5 12.1 15 12.5 15.3 17.7 20 18.3 20.4 19.7 21.1 25 19.3 23.4 24.7 30 0 Management, Business, Financial Ops Computer, Education, Public Mathematical, Service Engineering & Engineering Tech, Architecture, Scientific American Indian/Alaska Native Healthcare Diagnosing, Assessment, Treating, Therapy, Technical Services Asian/Pacific Islander Sales, Farming, Fishing, Administrative Forestry, Hunting Support Black non-Hispanic Source: NCHEMS (from U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 and 2006 American Community Survey PUMS) Hispanic Construction, Extraction, Maintenance Precision Production, Transportation, Material Moving White non-Hispanic Public Institutions’ Growing Dependence on Net Tuition Revenue Net Tuition Revenue Share, FY2011 Change in % Points Since 1986 Colorado 65.0% 24.9 South Dakota 57.8% 22.8 Oregon 56.4% 30.0 Montana 52.8% 35.9 North Dakota 49.6% 22.5 Arizona 46.4% 22.7 Utah 44.8% 24.5 Texas 37.5% 17.6 Washington 34.5% 12.8 30% Hawaii 32.4% 23.6 20% 23.2% Idaho 31.4% 17.5 Nevada 30.5% 8.4 California 27.4% 16.6 Alaska 27.1% 16.7 New Mexico 21.9% 8.2 Wyoming 11.4% 2.0 Institutions’ Discretionary Revenue, U.S., 1986-2011 State 100% 90% 80% 76.8% 70% 56.9% 60% 50% 40% 43.1% 10% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0% Net Tuition Revenue Source: SHEEO SHEF Educational Appropriations Pressure to Devote Additional Resources to Recruitment Yield Down Applications Up Tepid HSG pool Cost shifting Enrollment targets Composite NAEP Reading and Math Scores for 12th Graders in 2009, by Race/Ethnicity 350 295.1 300 282.3 261.7 243.6 250 251.8 200 150 100 50 0 American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black nonHispanic Hispanic White nonHispanic Note: Composite scores are the average of the Math and Reading scores for 12 th graders tested in 2009; Math scores (0 to 300) were converted to fit the Reading scale of 0 to 500. Source: National Center for Education Statistics, NAEP Data Explorer Average Annual Wage/Salary Income Distribution by Race/Ethnicity, 2006-2010 Percentiles 25th 50th 75th $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Black nonHispanic Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (via NCHEMS) Hispanic White nonHispanic U.S. All Races/ Ethnicities Voices From the Enrollment Management Trenches “None of us would ever want to see the day when we had to choose whether to spend our resources on excellence or access. Put more starkly: We never want our values to depend on the markets.” - Raynard Kington, President of Grinnell College “A lot of institutions are asking, ‘Can we afford our values?’ And the answer is: We can’t.” - a vice president at a private non-profit college “How do we back away from students who are least likely to succeed, and replace them with students who are most likely to succeed?” - an enrollment management consultant $5,000 40% $4,000 0% Lowest Quartile Source: NPSAS Second Quartile Third Quartile Highest Quartile $2,831 $2,093 $4,580 $2,916 $1,000 $3,529 25.0% 10.9% 27.4% 0.6% 0.5% 15.5% $2,000 28.4% 24.9% 22.1% 10% 29.0% 20% $3,000 33.4% 30% $2,785 50% $2,783 $6,000 $6,861 60% $2,509 $7,000 $2,357 70% $5,654 $8,000 65.4% 80% $7,155 Percent of Dependent Students Receiving Grants and Average Amount Received by Source of Grant and Income Quartile, 2007-08 $0 Lowest Quartile Second Quartile Third Quartile Highest Quartile First-Time Undergraduate Enrollment of Racial/Ethnic Groups by Sector, 2010-11 100% 8.9% 4.4% 14.9% 90% 80% 70% 36.0% 36.4% 47.8% 42.8% 60% 49.1% 17.5% 50% 40% 5.9% 11.2% 18.7% 12.0% 13.4% 9.5% 28.9% 30.2% Black non-Hispanic Hispanic 30% 42.1% 20% 39.0% 31.3% 10% 0% American Indian/Alaska Asian/Hawaiian/Pacific Native Islander Public Four-Years Private Non-profit Public Two-Years White non-Hispanic Private For-Profits Note: Figures represent degree/certificate-seeking students at degree-granting Title IV-eligible institutions. Source: NCES IPEDS. Student Mobility is an Increasingly Significant Phenomenon Source: Hossler, D. et al (2012). Transfer and Mobility: A National View of Pre-Degree Student Movement in Postsecondary Institutions. National Student Clearinghouse Signature Report #2. Policy Responses • State goals that include targets for underrepresented • • • • • populations Consumer information • Disclosures • Reporting requirements Market-oriented, incentives-driven finance policies • Demand-side completion incentives in financial aid • Performance funding • Longitudinal data systems including workforce information Standards alignment and equal expectations for all Regulation to preserve quality and promote transferability of credits Disruptive innovation (i.e., MOOCs, prior learning assessment) Distractions • • • • • • Rankings Mission creep Faculty complaints about student quality Alumni Redefining diversity Confusing two kinds of “fit” Discussion • How is the enrollment management business changing? • • Will traditional measures of success in enrollment management operations be adequate for meeting society’s need for a well-educated population? How can we ensure that financial barriers do not prevent capable students from accessing and succeeding in college? In particular, how do we deal with the increasing pressure to maximize net tuition? How can we balance institutional interests with societal interests when they aren’t in perfect alignment, and what does that mean for leadership in the higher education industry? Institutional Responses • Contribute to a more productive dialogue about college more aligned to society’s needs and less about institutional distinctiveness. • Enrollment management policies and practices. • Attract URM students and help ensure their success. • Create more opportunities for community college students. • Consider a framework for aid packaging that is transparent with clear incentives. • Integrate enrollment management efforts with student success activities and measure results. • Understand and highlight the Common Core and its relationship to college prep expectations. • Embrace the evidence – look for ways to leverage your data for student success.