Transcript Fall Professional Development Conference North Dakota Long Term Care Association Bismarck, ND Sept.

Fall Professional Development Conference
North Dakota Long Term Care Association
Bismarck, ND
Sept. 30, 2011
Dr. Richard Rathge
Professor and Director
North Dakota State Data Center
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
1. To present an overview of historical shifts
in population dynamics in North Dakota.
2. To examine recent shifts in elderly population.
3. To discuss future challenges for long term
care in North Dakota.
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
2


North Dakota’s
population peaked in
1930 at 680,845.
The 2010 Census for
North Dakota totaled
672,591, an increase
of 30,391 persons
from 2000.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census and the Population
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621
: http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
3
North Dakota
Cass County
4 similar
counties
40 similar
counties
McIntosh County
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
4
Percent Change in Population, 2000 to 2010
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
5
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
6
Note: Between 2000
and 2010, 83 of 357
incorporated
places grew (23%)
Note: Based on 357 incorporated cities
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
7
Population Change: 2002 to 2003
Divide
Renville
Bottineau
Burke
Pembina
Cavalier
Rolette
Loss
No Change
Gain
Towner
Walsh
Williams
Ramsey
McHenry
Mountrail
Pierce
Ward
Benson
Nelson
Grand Fo rks
McKenzie
Eddy
McLean
Sheridan
Wells
Foster
Dunn
Billings
Burleigh
Stark
Traill
Logan
Hettinger
Adams
Stutsman
Kidder
Cass
Barnes
Morton
Grant
Bowman
Steele
Oliver
Golden
Valley
Slope
Griggs
Mercer
LaMoure
Ransom
Richland
Emmons
Sioux
McIntosh
Dickey
Sargent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
8
Population Change: 2008 to 2009
Divide
Burk e
Renville
Bottineau
Pem bina
Cavalier
Rolette
Loss or No C hange
Inc rease: 0.1% to 1.1%
Inc rease: 1.2% to 3.6%
Towner
Wals h
William s
Rams ey
McH enry
Mountrail
Pierc e
Ward
Bens on
Nelson
Grand Forks
McKenzie
Eddy
McLean
Sheridan
Wells
Foster
Dunn
Billings
Steele
Traill
Oliv er
Burleigh
Golden
Valley
Stark
Logan
Hettinger
Grant
Adam s
Stuts man
Kidder
Cass
Barnes
Morton
Slope
Bow man
Griggs
Mercer
LaM oure
Ransom
Richland
Em mons
Sioux
McIntos h
Dick ey
Sargent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
9
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
10
Percent Change in Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses
North Dakota = 4.7% Increase
Divide
Burke
Renville
Bottineau
Decrease: 15.0% to 22.7%
Decrease: 0.1% to 14.9%
Increase: 0.1% to 4.9%
Increase: 5.0% to 21.6%
Pembina
Cavalier
Rolette
Towner
Walsh
Williams
Mountrail
McHenry
Ward
Ramsey
Pierce
Benson
Nelson
McKenzie
Eddy
McLean
Sheridan
Wells
Foster
Dunn
Billings
Golden
Valley
Steele
Traill
Oliver
Stark
Logan
Hettinger
Adams
Stutsman
Kidder
Cass
Barnes
Morton
Grant
Bowman
Griggs
Mercer
Burleigh
Slope
Grand Forks
Only 11 of 53 counties
gained population
between 2000 - 2010
LaMoure
Ransom
Richland
Emmons
Sioux
McIntosh
Dickey
Sargent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
11
1. Shifting concentration of seniors
2. Changes in household composition
3. Economic impacts from the
recession & oil energy development
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 1970
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
13
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Decennial Census 2000
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
14
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projections 2008
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
15

Mark Crossler , Extension Marketing Leader at
Oregon State University designed the
following illustrations
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 2318621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
16
21-35
36-55
0-20
56-70
71-85
86 +
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
17
58.86 million
82.83 million
60.25 million
and 27% larger than
Millennials
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
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87.59 million
79.39 million
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
19
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
20
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
21
Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2000
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000
North Dakota = 14.7%
Divide
Bu rke
Bo ttin eau
Ren ville
5.6% to 14.9%
15.0% to 21.9%
22.0% to 27.9%
28.0% to 34.2%
Pe mbin a
Cava lier
Role tte
Town er
W alsh
W illiams
Ram se y
McH en ry
Mo un trail
Pie rce
W ard
Be nson
Nelso n
McKen zie
Ed dy
McL ean
Sh eridan
W ells
Foste r
Dun n
Billin gs
Grig gs
Stee le
Traill
Me rcer
Oliver
Bu rle igh
Gold en
Va lley
Gra nd Fo rks
Stutsman
Kid der
Cass
Ba rn es
Stark
Mo rton
Slo pe
Log an
Hetting er
Gra nt
Bo wma n
Ad ams
LaMo ure
Ran som
Richla nd
Emm ons
Sio ux
McIntosh
Dickey
Sa rg ent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
22
Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2020
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2020
Source: NDSDC, 2020 Population Projections produced in 2002
North Dakota = 23.0%
Divide
Bu rke
Bo ttin eau
Ren ville
Less than 15%
15.0% to 21.9%
22.0% to 27.9%
28.0% or more
Pe mbin a
Cava lier
Role tte
Town er
W alsh
W illiams
Ram se y
McH en ry
Mo un trail
Pie rce
W ard
Be nson
Nelso n
McKen zie
Ed dy
McL ean
Sh eridan
W ells
Foste r
Dun n
Billin gs
Grig gs
Stee le
Traill
Me rcer
Oliver
Bu rle igh
Gold en
Va lley
Gra nd Fo rks
Stutsman
Kid der
Cass
Ba rn es
Stark
Mo rton
Slo pe
Log an
Hetting er
Gra nt
Bo wma n
Ad ams
LaMo ure
Ran som
Richla nd
Emm ons
Sio ux
McIntosh
Dickey
Sa rg ent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
23
Seniors Ages 65 and Older: 2010
Persons Ages 65 and Older as a Percent of the Total Population in North Dakota by County: 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2010
North Dakota = 14.5%
Divide
Bu rke
Bo ttin eau
Ren ville
5.6% to 14.9%
15.0% to 21.9%
22.0% to 27.9%
28.0% to 34.2%
Pe mbin a
Cava lier
Role tte
Town er
W alsh
W illiams
Ram se y
McH en ry
Mo un trail
Pie rce
W ard
Be nson
Nelso n
McKen zie
Ed dy
McL ean
Sh eridan
W ells
Foste r
Dun n
Billin gs
Grig gs
Stee le
Traill
Me rcer
Oliver
Bu rle igh
Gold en
Va lley
Gra nd Fo rks
Stutsman
Kid der
Cass
Ba rn es
Stark
Mo rton
Slo pe
Log an
Hetting er
Gra nt
Bo wma n
Ad ams
LaMo ure
Ran som
Richla nd
Emm ons
Sio ux
McIntosh
Dickey
Sa rg ent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
24
Young Adults Ages 25 to 34
Percent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 25 to 34 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census
North Dakota = 17.7% increase
Divide
Burke
Bottineau
Decrease: -16.5% to -36.5%
Decrease: -0.1% to -16.4%
No Change or Increase: 0% to 42.4%
Increase: 42.5% to 69.9%
Pembina
Cavalier
Rolette
Renville
Towner
Walsh
Williams
Ramsey
McHenry
Mountrail
Pierce
Ward
Benson
Nelson
Grand Forks
McKenzie
Eddy
McLean
Sheridan
Wells
Foster
Dunn
Griggs
Steele
Traill
Mercer
Billings
O liver
Golden
Valley
Burleigh
Stutsman
Kidder
Cass
Barnes
Stark
Morton
Slope
Logan
Hettinger
Grant
Bowman
Adams
LaMoure
Ransom
Richland
Emmons
Sioux
McIntosh
Dickey
Sargent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
25
Percent Change in the Population of Persons Ages 0 to 4 in North Dakota by County: 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Census
Div ide
Burke
Renville
Bottineau
Pembina
Cav alier
Rolette
North Dakota = 13.2% increase
Decrease: -10.5% to -26.6%
Decrease: -0.1% to -10.4%
Increase: 0.1% to 19.9%
Increase: 20.0% to 42.9%
Towner
W alsh
W illiams
Ram sey
McHenry
Mountrail
Pier ce
W ard
Bens on
Nelson
Grand F orks
McKenzie
Eddy
McLean
Sher idan
W ells
Foster
Dunn
Billings
Stark
Traill
Logan
Hettinger
Grant
Adam s
Stutsman
Kidder
Cas s
Barnes
Morton
Slope
Bowm an
Steele
Oliver
Burleigh
Golden
Valley
Griggs
Mercer
LaMoure
Ransom
Ric hland
Emmons
Sioux
McIntosh
Dic key
Sargent
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
26
1. Shifting concentration of seniors
2. Changes in household composition
3. Economic impacts from the
recession & oil energy development
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
27
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
28
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
29
Percent of All Householders that Live Alone in North Dakota by County: 2010 Census
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profile
Di vid e
B ur ke
Re n vi ll e
B otti n e a u
P em b i n a
Ca va l ie r
Ro le tte
North Dakota = 31.5%
17.4% to 24.9%
25.0% to 29.9%
30.0% to 34.9%
35.0% to 39.4%
To wn e r
W a ls h
W i lli a m s
Mc He n r y
Mo u n tr ai l
W ard
Ra m se y
P ie rc e
B en s o n
Ne ls o n
Mc K e n zie
E dd y
Mc L ea n
S he r id a n
W e ll s
Fo ste r
Du n n
B ill in g s
G ri g g s
S tee l e
Tr ai ll
Me r ce r
O li ve r
B ur le i g h
G o ld e n
V al le y
G ra n d F or ks
S tuts m a n
K id d e r
Ca ss
B ar n e s
S tar k
Mo r to n
S lo p e
Lo g a n
He ttin g e r
G ra n t
B ow m a n
A da m s
La M o u re
Ra n so m
Ri ch la n d
E mm o n s
S io u x
Mc In tos h
Di cke y
S ar g e n t
North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O.
Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone:
(701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
30
Of Householders Living Alone, Percent Under Age 65 in North Dakota by County: 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profile
Re n vi ll e
Di vid e
B otti n e a u
B ur ke
P em b i n a
Ca va l ie r
Ro le tte
North Dakota = 65.1%
40.2% to 49.9%
50.0% to 56.9%
57.0% to 64.9%
65.0% to 76.2%
To wn e r
W a ls h
W i lli a m s
Ra m se y
Mc He n r y
Mo u n tr ai l
P ie rc e
W ard
B en s o n
Ne ls o n
E dd y
Mc L ea n
Mc K e n zie
S he r id a n
W e ll s
Fo ste r
Du n n
B ill in g s
G ri g g s
S tee l e
Tr ai ll
Me r ce r
O li ve r
B ur le i g h
G o ld e n
V al le y
G ra n d F or ks
S tuts m a n
K id d e r
Ca ss
B ar n e s
S tar k
Mo r to n
S lo p e
Lo g a n
He ttin g e r
G ra n t
B ow m a n
A da m s
La M o u re
Ra n so m
Ri ch la n d
E mm o n s
S io u x
Mc In tos h
Di cke y
S ar g e n t
North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O.
Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone:
(701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
31
Of Householders Living Alone, Percent Age 65 Plus in North Dakota by County: 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Demographic Profile
Di vid e
B ur ke
Re n vi ll e
B otti n e a u
P em b i n a
Ca va l ie r
Ro le tte
North Dakota = 34.9%
23.8% to 33.9%
34.0% to 42.9%
43.3% to 49.9%
50.0% to 59.8%
To wn e r
W a ls h
W i lli a m s
Ra m se y
Mc He n r y
Mo u n tr ai l
P ie rc e
W ard
B en s o n
Ne ls o n
Mc K e n zie
E dd y
Mc L ea n
S he r id a n
W e ll s
Fo ste r
Du n n
G ra n d F or ks
G ri g g s
S tee l e
Tr ai ll
Me r ce r
B ill in g s
O li ve r
B ur le i g h
G o ld e n
V al le y
S tuts m a n
K id d e r
Ca ss
B ar n e s
S tar k
Mo r to n
S lo p e
Lo g a n
He ttin g e r
G ra n t
B ow m a n
A da m s
La M o u re
Ra n so m
Ri ch la n d
E mm o n s
S io u x
Mc In tos h
Di cke y
S ar g e n t
North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O.
Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone:
(701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
32
North Dakota Seniors Ages 85 and Older as a Percent of Seniors Ages 65 and Older
in North Dakota by County: 2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1
Di vid e
B ur ke
Re n vi ll e
B otti n e a u
P em b i n a
Ca va l ie r
Ro le tte
North Dakota = 17.1%
5.4% to 11.9%
12.0% to 16.4%
16.5% to 19.9%
20.0% to 24.3%
To wn e r
W a ls h
W i lli a m s
Ra m se y
Mc He n r y
Mo u n tr ai l
P ie rc e
W ard
B en s o n
Ne ls o n
Mc K e n zie
E dd y
Mc L ea n
S he r id a n
W e ll s
Fo ste r
Du n n
B ill in g s
G ri g g s
S tee l e
Tr ai ll
Me r ce r
O li ve r
B ur le i g h
G o ld e n
V al le y
S tar k
Lo g a n
He ttin g e r
G ra n t
A da m s
S tuts m a n
K id d e r
Ca ss
B ar n e s
Mo r to n
S lo p e
B ow m a n
G ra n d F or ks
La M o u re
Ra n so m
Ri ch la n d
E mm o n s
S io u x
Mc In tos h
Di cke y
S ar g e n t
North Dakota State University, IACC Room 424, P.O.
Box 6050, Dept. 8000 ,Fargo, ND 58108-6050 - Phone:
(701) 231-8621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
33
1. Shifting concentration of seniors
2. Changes in household composition
3. Economic impacts from the recession
& oil energy development
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
34
U.S. Household Net Worth, 2007 to 2010 est.
in billions
Average 24.5% decline since 2007
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
35
Nonfarm Employment Growth in U.S. and
Regional States; 2007 to 2009
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
36
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
37
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
38
Historical Rates of Unemployment, 1976 to 2009
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
39
U.S. rate 9.1%
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
40
ND Ranking in oil production
9th in 2006
6th in 2008 4th in 2009
(only behind Texas
Alaska, and California)
12,750 worked in the oil patch in 2010
compared to 2,000 in 2007
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
41
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
42
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
43



Shift in the distribution of seniors
Household composition shift to non-families,
especially single person HH
Robust economic climate has created
opportunities and challenges for western ND
◦ Strain for services
◦ Inflated housing demand (higher rents, higher
property taxes)
◦ Challenges with dynamic population
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 2318621 : http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
44

Dr. Richard Rathge, Director
◦ North Dakota State Data Center, Fargo, ND NDSU,
IACC 424, Fargo, ND 58108-6050
◦ [email protected]
◦ Phone: (701) 231-8621 Fax: (701) 231-9730
◦ URL: www.ndsu.edu/sdc
NDSDC at NDSU in Fargo, ND - Phone: (701) 231-8621 :
http://www.ndsu.edu/sdc
45