Slide 1

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 2

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 3

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 4

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 5

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 6

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 7

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 8

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 9

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 10

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 11

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 12

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 13

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 14

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 15

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 16

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 17

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 18

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 19

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 20

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 21

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 22

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 23

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 24

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 25

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 26

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 27

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 28

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 29

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 30

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 31

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

•
•
•
•
•

Online: nhpolicy.org
Facebook: facebook.com/nhpolicy
Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

32


Slide 32

Public Policy
in New Hampshire:
A Regional Approach

Board of Directors
Todd I. Selig, Chair
David Alukonis
Michael Buckley
William H. Dunlap
Sheila T. Francoeur
Stephen Reno
Stuart V. Smith, Jr.
Donna Sytek

Brian F. Walsh

Steve Norton, Executive Director
NH Center for Public Policy Studies

Kimon S. Zachos
Martin L. Gross, Chair
Emeritus
John D. Crosier, Sr., Emeritus

“…to raise new ideas and improve policy debates through quality
information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

1

What is NH?

Thinking Regionally

26

How to understand
New Hampshire?

• On town/city scale?
– History of local control: Selectboards, police &
fire departments
– Large, highly-representative State House:
Almost every town gets a vote.

• On statewide scale?
– Public education: Equity across the state
– Economic development: tax policy, business
climate
– Tourism: the New Hampshire “brand”

3

But what about
across the borders?

• Transportation
– Commuting patterns
– Mass transit & rail

• Housing
– Workforce housing, senior housing

• Environment
– Water quality

4

New Hampshire:
A state of regions

5

ou

ar
tm
e

re

at
e

hu
a

te
r

ch
es

rd

eg
io
n

eg
io
n

R

R

eg
io
n

R

rN
as

rM
an

s

eg
io
n

R

C
on
co

oa
st

at
er

re

G

at
e

re

G

Se
ac

k

ee

oo
d

eg
io
n

R

W

74.5

G

na
p

ad
no
c

Su

s

ns

ta
i

La
ke

ou
n

or
th

93.0

M
on

La
k

th
/

M

at
N

19.2

D

W
hi
te

re

G

How crowded is it?
2010 People per Square Mile
783.7

655.9

378.6

187.6

112.7

28.1

6

Income?
Adjusted Gross Income per taxpayer (2007)

$68,370

$66,789

$65,231

$52,897

$54,781

$55,237

$56,329

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

$43,106

$31,358

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater Nashua

7

Education?
Percent of adult population with a B.A. or higher
38.0%
35.4%

35.1%

33.2%
30.5%

25.6%

30.4%

26.0%

14.4%

Great North
Woods

White
Mountains
Region

Lakes Region Dartmouth/Lake
Sunapee
Region

Monadnock
Region

Seacoast
Region

Greater
Concord

Greater
Manchester

Greater Nashua

8

What matters to
Greater Nashua?

• Transportation
– Links to Boston economy.
– 1 in 4 residents here commutes out of state.

• Water

9

What matters to White Mountain Region?

• Housing
– More than one-third of housing stock is seasonal and
second homes.

– Where do the workers live?

• Economy
– How to add balance to employment?

10

Demographics

11

12

13

‘Weight’ of
the State is
moving South
(and East)

14

15

16

We’re still growing –
but slower
Percent Change in NH Population

30.0%
24.8%
25.0%

21.5%

20.5%

20.0%
13.8%

15.0%

11.4%
10.0%

8.5%
6.9%

5.0%
0.0%
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Source: New Hampshire Center for Public Policy Studies, analysis of U.S. Census data

2010

17

Understanding the past to see the Future:
Here come the baby boomers ….

188

Are we old? Not yet, but getting there …

14
19

15
20

The new 60? Significant growth of the population 75 - 79

16
21

17
22

23

24

01/11

01/10

01/09

01/08

01/07

01/06

01/05

Monthly NH NonFarm Employment, January 1969 - June 2011

01/04

01/03

01/02

01/01

01/00

01/99

01/98

01/97

01/96

01/95

01/94

01/93

01/92

01/91

01/90

01/89

01/88

01/87

01/86

01/85

01/84

01/83

01/82

01/81

01/80

01/79

01/78

01/77

01/76

01/75

01/74

01/73

01/72

01/71

01/70

01/69

Thousands of Jobs

The History (and Future)
of State Budgeting In One
Slide
Grey boxes represent
recessionary periods

700

600
5% Job Loss

500
3% Job Loss

10% Job Loss

400

300

200

100

0

Spending reductions began
in 2008 and continue ….
Actual General Fund Expenditures (Millions $)

$1,600
Actual General Funds Spent
acccording to the states
consolidated financial reports

$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

12
20

10
20

08
20

06
20

04
20

02
20

00
20

98
19

96
19

94
19

92
19

19

90

$0

25

The Changes
• The Biggies ($)
– The Retirement System
– Hospital DSH Program
– Corrections
– Higher Education
– Personnel

• Other (bigger ?) impacts on smaller/more
vulnerable populations?
26

Potential Unraveling of budget …..

Will cause additional pressure to reduce spending
27

Federal Budget Changes

28

Federal Spending in NH

Federal Spending in New Hampshire FFY 83 to 99: Supporting an Aging Population in Peacetime
$6
Safety Net Programs
Retirement and Medicare programs

$4

889 Other Programs

FY99

FY98

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY90

$0

FY89

Non-Defense Salaries and Procurement

FY88

$1

FY87

Highways and Community Development

FY86

$2

FY85

Education and Research

FY84

$3

FY83

Billions of Dollars

$5

Fiscal Year

29

Safety Net Spending in NH

Federal Spending on 17 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
$1,400

$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY97

FY95

FY93

FY91

FY89

FY87

FY85

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid)
Veterans Dependency And Indemnity Compensation For Svc-Connected Death
Veterans Compensation For Service-Connected Disability
Handicapped-State Grants
Foster Care Title IV E
Unemployment Insurance
Unemployment Compensation Benefit Payments
Lower Income Housing Assistance Program-Section 8 Moderate Rehabilitation
Low Income Home Energy Assistance
National School Lunch Program
Food Stamps
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Special Supplemental Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
Supplemental Security Income
Federal Government Payments For Excess Earned Income Tax Credits
Social Security Disability Insurance
Social Security Survivors Insurance

Fiscal Year

30

Small Program Changes
Could Have Big Impacts
Federal Spending on 'Safety Net' Programs in New Hampshire: 1983-1999
$1,600
Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC)
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food Program For Women, Infants, And Children
(WIC)
Assistance For Needy Families (AFDC & TANF)
Food Stamps
School Lunch Program
Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP)
Unemployment Benefits
Foster Care
Special Education
Veterans Benefits for Disability and Death

Low Income Housing Assistance

$1,400

Medicaid
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200

FY99

FY98

Social Security Disability
Insurance

FY97

FY96

FY95

FY94

FY93

FY92

FY91

Social Security Survivor's
Insurance

FY90

FY89

FY88

FY87

FY86

FY85

FY84

$0

FY83

Millions of Dollars

$1,200

Fiscal Year

31

Want to learn more?

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Twitter: @nhpublicpolicy
Our blog: policyblognh.org
(603) 226-2500

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information and analysis on issues shaping New Hampshire’s future.”

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