Navigating Waves of Change: Driving Academic Improvement Through Challenging Times

Sam Howe November 2010 Scholastic Inc.

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Presentation Focus

• How to build academic plans that achieve their targets • In the midst of two waves of significant change – Rising number of economically disadvantaged children – The economic uncertainties surrounding the Great Recession • And, with the recognition that these waves of change vary by geographic location Scholastic Inc.

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Help for These Questions

• Demographics: – How much longer will the number of economically disadvantaged students continue to rise? – What’s the demographic profile for my incoming kindergarten students, three years from now?

• Economics: – What’s the 3-5 year outlook for my state and local funding?

– When can I bring a school budget increase or bond issue to my community?

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Help for These Questions

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Academics:

– Where can I focus my investments to get the greatest gain in academic achievement over the next 24 months?

– How do I estimate the number of students that I must place into an intervention treatment program to reach a specific proficiency target in 3 years time?

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Annual Data Review

Key Academic Indicators

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Reading

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Mathematics

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Graduation & Dropouts

Leadership and School Culture •Professional Development Needs of Academic Leaders •360 Degree Survey of Stakeholders regarding Leadership Practices Teaching Effectiveness •Professional Development Needs of Teachers •360 Degree Survey of Stakeholders regarding Teaching Practices Curriculum Review •Alignment between Curriculum and Tested Standards •Alignment between Curriculum and Needs of Business/ Community

State & Community Review

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Demographics

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Economics

•Real Estate •360 Degree Survey of Community Stakeholders 5

Demographic Trend Analysis

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Demographic Data

• American Community Survey – Annual data from 2006 through 2009 – Detailed demographic data for states, counties, and major cities (population 65,000+) – Data covers topics including population, housing, income, education, fertility, language, and poverty – US Census Bureau web site • Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) – US Census Bureau web site • Brookings Institution – Metropolitan Policy Institute and Hamilton Project – Demographic research in multiple areas, including poverty, immigration, and children – Brookings web site Scholastic Inc.

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US Demographic Trend

Demographic Change in Chidlren Under 18 Years of Age in US from 2006 Through 2009 in ACS Data

2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5%

Below Poverty Hispanic All Under 18 ELL Asian Foreign Born African Amer White

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Poverty for Children Under 18 in 2008

Source: SAIPE Scholastic Inc.

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Poverty Challenge for Children

Source: Brookings Institution Scholastic Inc.

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Demographics for Kindergarten Students

• 48 students will have attended preschool • 46 students will be from low income families • 23 students will be from families on public assistance • 21 students will have moved within the past 12 months • 21 students will be from households that speak a language other than English • 5 students will be from linguistically isolated families Scholastic Inc.

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Economic Forecast

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Economic Forecast

• Economic Data – County and MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) forecasts: Moody’s economy.com

– County and State employment data: Bureau of Labor Statistics – State economic forecasts: Moody’s economy.com

– Federal economic data and analysis: Brookings Institution Scholastic Inc.

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Unemployment Challenge

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Scholastic Inc.

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Unemployment Challenge

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Scholastic Inc.

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Employment Loss in Recession

Source: Brookings Institution Scholastic Inc.

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Employment Loss in Recession

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Source: Brookings Institution Scholastic Inc.

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IL State Economic Forecast

Source: Moody’s Economy.com June 2010 Report Scholastic Inc.

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Monitor Economic Challenges

• Monitor the health of top employers • Monitor state tax revenue collection trends and pension obligations • Monitor local real estate trends Scholastic Inc.

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Educational Attainment

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Education Pipeline Challenge

Source: National Center on Education and the Economy Scholastic Inc.

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High School Completion Challenge

Ohio State High School Graduation Rates

90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% SPED Econ Dis LEP SY04-05 SY05-06 SY06-07 SY07-08 Scholastic Inc.

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High School Loss Analysis

High School Student Loss Analysis

Based on District Enrollment Data Group All Grade 9 in 2006 636 Grade 10 in 2007 562 Grade 11 in 2008 524 Grade 12 in 2009 452 Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 10 Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 11 Cumulative Student Loss at Grade 12 74 112 184 Estimated State & Federal Funding per Capita per Year = 2006 State Average $3,871

Estimated Annual State & Federal Funding Loss per Cohort from Grades 9 12

Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 10 Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 11 Loss of State & Fed Funding at Grade 12

TOTAL

$286,454 $433,552 $712,264

$1,432,270

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Educational Attainment Challenge

Educational Attainment for Adults 25+ Years of Age in 2009 Percent Distribution Median Income Did not complete ninth grade Did not complete high school High school graduate (includes equivalency) Some college, no degree Associates degree Bachelors degree Graduate or professional degree 6.3% 14.8% 28.5% 21.3% 7.5% 17.6% 10.3% $18,432 $26,140 $31,906 $31,906 $47,510 $62,313 Percent Below Poverty 25.7% 12.5% 9.0% 9.0% 3.9% 3.9% Percent Not Employed Percent Unemployed 47.1% 33.0% 26.4% 26.4% 18.0% 18.0% 15.2% 10.6% 8.3% 8.3% 4.5% 4.5% Source: ACS 2009 USA data Scholastic Inc.

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Review Key Academic Performance Indicators for Reading and Math Achievement

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Subgroup Reading Challenges

Percent of Students Reading Below Proficient on WA State Test in 2007 Number of Students Reading Below Proficient on WA State Test in 2007

Hispanic White Asian LEP SPED African Amer Econ Dis All 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% % Level 1 % Level 2 Hispanic White Asian LEP SPED African Amer Econ Dis All 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 # Level 1 # Level 2 Scholastic Inc.

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Subgroup Reading Trends

Mean Annual Percent Growth in ELA Proficiency for Grade 6-10 Students on CST from 2003 Through 2006

3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Asian Hispanic Econ Dis Af-Am All White SPED ELL Scholastic Inc.

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Grade Level Reading Challenges

Percent of Students Reading at Levels 1-2 on FCAT in 2007

Grade 10 Grade 9 Grade 8 Grade 7 Grade 6 Grade 5 Grade 4 Grade 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% % L1 % L2 Grade 10 Grade 9 Grade 8 Grade 7 Grade 6 Grade 5 Grade 4 Grade 3 0

Number of Students Reading at Levels 1-2 on FCAT in 2007 Total = 49,443 Students

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 # L1 # L2 Scholastic Inc.

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Reading Challenge

Mean Annual Growth in Ohio State Reading Proficiency from 2006 Through 2009

2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0%

Grade 4 Grade 3 Grade 11 Grade 7 Grade 6 Grade 5 Grade 8 Grade 10

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School Reading Challenge

Percent of Students Scoring Below Proficient on State Test

ML King MS Eisenhow er MS Jefferson MS Coolidge MS Hoover MS Adams MS McKinley MS Kennedy MS Jackson MS Truman MS Revere MS Lincoln MS Grant MS Roosevelt MS Washington MS 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % BB % B

Number of Students Scoring Below Proficient on State Test Total = 8,408 Students

ML King MS Eisenhow er MS Jefferson MS Coolidge MS Hoover MS Adams MS McKinley MS Kennedy MS Jackson MS Truman MS Revere MS Lincoln MS Grant MS Roosevelt MS Washington MS 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 # BB # B Scholastic Inc.

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Critical Mass to Move the Needle

• In __ City Schools, with 10,000 students tested • 1% gain = moving 100 students to proficiency • Intervention program at 25% conversion rate (1 out of every 4) • 400 students in intervention = 100 students proficient = 1% gain • A 5% gain = 2,000 students in intervention Scholastic Inc.

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Building Blocks for Academic Improvement

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Academic Management

• Assessment Data – Screening, progress monitoring, and summative assessments for all students – Assessments for math and reading for all students on a single vertical scale – Growth and trajectory analyses • Program Data – Individualized student skills data – Progress monitoring data – Usage data – Implementation fidelity data – Data that rolls up from student to class to school to district Scholastic Inc.

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Academic Success

• Tiered Instruction – Tier #1: Core instruction – Tier #2: Intervention for students 1+ years below grade level – Tier #3: Intensive intervention in foundational skills • Human Capital – Leadership training – Job embedded teacher professional development and in-classroom coaching for teachers delivering intervention – Training of a cadre of coaches to build internal capacity Scholastic Inc.

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Recommended Actions

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Take Action Today

• Conduct an annual data review – Review economics and demographics – Review academic indicators in reading and math – Review human capital needs of leaders and teachers • Use results from the annual data review to update your strategic and improvement plans Scholastic Inc.

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Take Action Today

• Set up time for a free consultation to discuss your district’s data challenges • Set the appointment through your Scholastic Account Executive • Or, contact me… – Sam Howe – Vice President Academic Planning & Analysis – [email protected]

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