Transcript ‘Changing Face of Global Footwear Sourcing and Distribution’ – China and Beyond EXPOPELE 2015, New PT Leather Industry Event Multiusos Pavilion, Alcanena, Portugal May.

‘Changing Face of Global Footwear Sourcing
and Distribution’ – China and Beyond
EXPOPELE 2015, New PT Leather Industry Event
Multiusos Pavilion, Alcanena, Portugal
May 2, 2015
Peter T. Mangione
Managing Director
Global Footwear Partnerships LLC
[email protected]
1
Global Footwear Overview
•
•
•
•
Supply and Demand: Big Picture
Demand Details: US, EU, China
Sourcing Details: China and Beyond
Demographics: Race to get rich before getting
old
• Summary
Shoe Sector – What’s Next?
World Footwear Supply, Selected Countries (millions of pairs), 2014
Source: Industry estimates. ( ) % of change
Country
Production
Exports
Imports
China
India
Vietnam
Brazil
Indonesia
EU
Mexico
Thailand
Russia
Korea
Japan
Taiwan
US
14,500 (2.1)
2,065 (0)
1,035 (15.0)
900 (4.1)
725 (0)
570 (-5.0)
230 (-6.0)
250 (0)
114
85 (6.3)
69.2(-6.5)
40 (0)
40(8.0)
10,740 (1.5)
130 (10.0)
920 (15.0)
130 (5.4)
332 (0)
225.6 (-1.4)
26 (0)
100 (-9.0)
4.8
30 (22.0)
1.2 (0)
17.2 (3.6)
18.0(5.0)
73 (32)
90 (10.0)
40 (10)
37(-6.0)
33 (10.0)
2,592.4 (8.3)
100(17.0)
45 (0)
354.4
169 (30.0)
629 (1.6)
75 (5.6)
2,332.7(-0.3)
March 2015
4
World Footwear Consumption, Selected Countries (millions of pairs), 2014
Source: Industry estimates, ( ) % of change
Country
Consumption
Pairs Per Person
Import Penetration
China
EU
US
India
Brazil
Japan
Indonesia
Russia
Mexico
Korea
Thailand
Canada
Vietnam
Australia
Taiwan
3,833 (4.1)
2,936 (6.8)
2,332.7 (-0.3)
2,029.1(0)
807 (-1.0)
697 (0)
426 (0)
463.6
330 (8.6)
224 (20)
195 (5.0)
164 (0)
172 (15)
100 (0)
98 (3.2)
3.0(3.5)
5.9(2.0)
7.4(-2.0)
1.7 (0)
4.0(-4.7)
5.5 (0)
2.2(0)
3.25
2.7(3.6)
4.6 (21)
3.0(10)
5.2 (0)
1.9 (12)
4.6 (0)
4.3 (4.9)
1.9 (27)
88 (1.5)
99 (0)
4 (0)
4.6 (-4.2)
90 (1.1)
6 (-10)
76
30(7.1)
75 (7.1)
24 (0)
99 (0)
58(-3)
95 (0)
77 (0)
March 2015
5
Decline of Leather Shoes Accelerates
Share of leather shoes in exports
•
vol%
value%
6
US Consumption by Upper Material 2011
(Pairs)
Leather 32%
Plastic/rubber 32%
Textile 35%
Waterproof 1%
Other
0%
EU 27 Consumption by Upper Material 2011
(Pairs)
Leather 29%
Plastic/rubber 39%
Textile 24.5%
Waterproof 2.5%
Other
5%
US Imports of Leather Goods
2014
Total US
Imports
Category
US Imports from
China
2014
2013
% Change
2014
2013
% Change
Footwear
12,690.4
12,238
3.7
7,250.0
7,230.6
0.3
Apparel
542.1
560.4
-3.3
235.5
263.0
-11.7
Gloves
445.7
391.9
13.7
319.6
286.5
11.5
Other
624.7
580.8
7.6
396.7
374.5
5.9
Finished
2,171.6
2,099.2
3.4
66.5
72.3
-8.7
Total
16,477.0
15,870.3
3.8
8,268.3
8,226.9
0.5
All amounts are in millions of US dollars
9
President Obama – Did you lose power?
Growth and Jobs Picking Up
• US economy slowly growing, but with 9 million unemployed, it will take years to
recover – 2.4% GDP growth for 2014 and maybe 3.0% in 2015
• Banks are starting to lend to businesses and consumers --- auto and housing sales are
up but credit is still tight
• Hiring held back due to government imposed costs for health care, financial
regulation, and prospect of higher taxes
•Lack of confidence and uncertainty still restraining investment
• Massive injections of Fed money in banking system raise specter of future inflation
and slow growth, trend back to normal interest rates, when? Impact of souring
dollar?
•New CULTURE OF THRIFT has taken hold in the US, and spending levels by consumers,
that accounts for 70% of GDP, may never reach pre-crisis rates
11
11
US Growth Looks Good – But …
12
US Footwear Market: The Fundamentals
•Some $60 billion in annual retail shoe sales
•On average, some 7 pair person sold annually, more than 2.2
billion pair
•Highly concentrated retail and brands, dominated by mega firms
•Nearly half of all retail shoe sales by Wal-mart, Payless, Target,
K-mart, etc.
•Some 45% of all shoe sales are athletic, mostly Nike, adidas, New
Balance
•National brands, those sold by numerous retailers, have less
than 50% market share
•All national brands sold in the US are US based, just a handful
of exceptions
•Only about a third of shoe sales are leather items, rest are
synthetic and textile
13
US Footwear Imports 2014
Country
Pairs
% Change
Value
% Change
Unit Value
% Change
China (79.0%)
1,841.7
-2.7
16,678.2
0.3
9.05
3.1
Vietnam (11.2%)*
273.2
18.1
3,532.5
22.6
12.93
3.3
Indonesia (3.7%)
85.6
0.5
1,218.4
5.9
14.23
5.4
India (0.8%)*
18.1
10.3
336.6
17.6
18.60
6.5
Mexico (0.8%)
17.7
-9.2
446.1
-7.9
25.20
1.7
Italy (0.7%)
16.6
9.7
1,427.6
8.3
86.02
7.3
Cambodia (0.6%)*
13.6
134.5
123.8
118.0
9.10
-7.0
Brazil (0.5%)*
12.7
18.7
203.5
3.5
16.02
-12.8
Dom Rep (0.4%)
10.0
10.4
255.4
9.8
25.54
-1.0
Thailand (0.3%)
7.2
-3.3
109.3
3.0
15.18
5.9
Spain (0.2%)
3.8
10.4
211.8
14.5
55.73
5.6
Bangladesh (0.1%)
2.6
55.3
61.6
83.8
23.69
17.3
Portugal (0.1%)
2.1
27.0
104.3
28.8
49.99
0.9
Ethiopia (0.1%)
1.6
22.1
NA
NA
11.75
NA
Nicaragua (0.1%)
.916
82.0
NA
NA
15.00 (Est)
NA
World Total
2,332.7
-0.3
25,309.6
4.7
10.85
4.5
14
US Leather Footwear Imports 2014
Country
Pairs
% Change
Value
% Change
Unit Value
% Change
China (65.0%)
381.8
-6.5
7,250.1
-1.0
18.99
5.9
Vietnam (15.8%)*
92.8
14.7
1,643.6
21.3
17.71
5.7
Indonesia (7.0%)
41.0
-2.3
636.5
0.0
15.52
4.9
India (2.5%)*
14.4
21.0
310.0
18.4
21.53
5.2
Italy(1.9%)*
10.9
8.4
1,214.0
7.2
111.38
-1.6
Dom Rep(1.4%)*
8.4
3.0
233.6
7.3
27.74
3.5
Mexico (1.4%)
8.1
-13.7
379.7
-9.6
46.88
1.7
Brazil (0.8%)
4.9
-1.1
163.6
0.5
33.39
2.6
Thailand (0.7%)
4.2
-11.1
73.1
-2.9
17.40
10.9
Spain (0.5%)*
2.9
8.7
179.6
15.5
61.93
7.6
Cambodia (0.5%)*
2.7
28.6
43.8
53.7
16.22
19.5
Bangladesh (0.4%)*
2.2
67.2
58.7
93.7
26.68
14.5
Portugal (0.3%)*
1.9
29.5
95.3
26.6
50.16
-5.9
Ethiopia (0.2%)*
1.4
57.9
17.2
14.7
12.29
-29.4
Nicaragua (0.1%)
.916
82.0
NA
NA
15.00 (Est)
NA
World Total
587.5
-1.8
12,690.4
3.7
21.60
5.6
15
US Footwear Consumer Distribution – Radical Changes
• US shoe sales to consumers up 7% (about $3.5 billion) to $56 billion since
2011 – largely driven by strong performance of branded athletic items,
surging boot sales (both women and men) and fashion sandals
• Since 2011, nearly half the shoe sales growth has been in the age group
55 and above – the ‘boomers’ seem unstoppable!
• During 2013, retail store customer traffic fell by some 3% (May and June
2014 down 8% and 10%)
• Three quarters of the growth in shoe sales since 2011 has been on line!
• Overall in 2013, on line accounted for about 20% of all shoe sales or some
$10.5 billion (Germany by contrast, 12% of shoe sales are online)
• About 60% of on line shoe sales are by companies that operate retail
stores, while 40% is pure internet players like Zappos
• Women’s 51% Men’s 36% and Kids 13% (Germany: 69%,19% and 7%)
• NPD data for US
Leading US Department Stores
2014 Same Store
Sales 4/3/2/1 Q
2013Same
Store Sales
4/3/2/1 Q
Average
Square
Footage
Shoes %of
Total Sales
Store
Count
2.2/0.1/-0.7/3
Nordstrom's
4.7/3.9/3.3/3.9
Sales
2014/2013
Total
$13.1/12.2
130,000
21%
292
182,000
36%*
833
$28.1/27.9
2.3/3/-0.8/4
Macy's
2.5/-0.7/3.4/-1.6
2.0/1/1/1
Dillard's
3.0/-1.0/1.0/2.0
171,000
14%
277
$6.6/6.5
Wal-Mart US
1.5/0.5/0.0/-0.8 -.4/-.3/-.3/-1.4
180,000
1-2%
4,203
$288/279
Target
3.8/1.2/0.0/-0.3 -2.5/-.9/1.2/-.6 160,000
2-4%
1,790
$71.3/72.0
Kohl's
3.7/-1.6/1.3/-3.4 -2/-1.6/-.9/-1.9 100,000
4-5%
1,162
$19.0/19.0
*Includes women’s accessories, cosmetics, and intimate apparel as
well as shoes. Note that sales percent of change is based on
comparable sales for the entire store, not just shoe sales. Comp store
17
sales excludes units opened/closed during the year.
U.S. Footwear Retail/Brands
Percent of Change 2014 - 2013
Company
DSW*
Famous*
Genesco*
Finish Line*
Footlocker*
4th/ 3rd/2nd/1st Q
2014
7.6/2.6/0.8/-3.7
4.0/-0.2/1.6/1.3
10/1.0/4.0/1.0
2.6/4.5/1.5/5.0
10.2/6.9/7.0/7.6
Nike+
adidas+
Brown Shoe(|)
Steve Madden+
Sketchers+
WWW+
7.0/18/15/10.9
6.0/6.2/10/-6.0
6.3/18.2/7.7/5.6
-6.3/-0.7/0.0/ 9.2
26.4/31/37/21.0
9.2/-0.8/4.4/-2.8
2013 4th 2013 2nd
Q/3nd Q
Q/1st
0/-0.7
4.4/-2.4
-1.8/4.9
6.8/1.1
0/-2
-1.0/-2.0
6.3/0.9
2.4/0.7
5.3/4.1
1.8/5.2
Brands
13/8
8/7
12/-7
-4/-2
13.5/4.5
12/-3
9/11
3/5
14/20
11/28
14/9
6/8
Total Stores
433
1,129
2,824
1,167
3,473
Sales 2014
$2,500.0
$1,589.3
$2,860.0
$1,670.0
$7,151.0
384
3,446
306
121
204
444
$25,300.0
$15,987.0
$982.5
$1,330.0
$2,337.6
$2,760.0
*Comparable stores sales for retailers.
(|) Wholesale only.
+Wholesale and retail.
Retail year ends January 30, while brands have various closings.
18
Nike’s Dominance Accelerates
US shoe store landscape -- like no other in the world








It is dominated by mega store chains.
There is only a modest share for independents.
It is mostly a multi-brand retail environment.
US consumers seem to prefer multi-brand formats to mono brand concepts -- the former being
more ‘destination –oriented’ and more convenient as a consequence.
It is also heavily penetrated by self-service shoe retailers, both in mass market low price
environments, as well as better grade nationally branded shoes. The latter stands out as a
unique US practice and is the fastest growing segment in a highly competitive and constantly
shifting sales environment.
Remarkably, the powerhouse department stores and the big box self-service sellers of nationally
branded shoes have found a modus vivendi.
Both now work in harmony -- and along with the athletic and non- athletic specialists and the
mass market self-service retailers -- contribute to the un-paralleled choice and value in shoe
offerings that are available today to US consumers and as yet, in the world, only to them.
What’s next for this market?
o More consolidation?
o More internet and fewer retail shops?
o Invasion of foreign stores, brands, concepts?
o More of the same?
EUROPEAN SHOE MARKET 2014-2002
Units in millions of pairs. Only countries of the European Union. IP is import penetration proportion.
Year
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007**
2006*
2005
2003
2002
*EU 25
** EU 27
Production
570.0 (est)
600.0(est)
592.0
582.0
549.1
549.1
577.7
573.3
587.8
609.0
710.6
803.2
Imports
2,592.5
2,381.7
2,287.5
2,544.8
2,423.5
2,233.6
2,436.3
2,489.3
2,158.5
1,939.7
1,296.1
1,050.0
Exports (IP)
225.6 (88%)
228.7(87%)
217.0 (86%)
194.0 (87%)
154.4 (86%)
154.4 (85%)
177.2 (86%)
186.9 (87%)
173.4 (84%)
161.5 (81%)
192.6 (72%)
220.6 (64%)
EU Footwear Imports 2014
Country
Pairs
% Change
Value/Euros
% Change
Unit Value
% Change
China (74.1%)
1,921.2
6.1
8,027.5
6.1
4.18
0.0
Vietnam (9.5%)*
246.5
20.8
2,613.8
23.1
10.61
1.9
Indonesia (3.9%)*
100.5
1.1
1,174.8
0.1
11.69
-1.1
India (3.2%)*
82.8
14.6
1,132.2
15.4
13.67
0.7
Cambodia (1.2%)*
32.1
8.3
348.3
12.3
10.86
1.1
Turkey (1.2%)*
30.9
38.1
131.4
28.0
4.25
-7.3
Bangladesh (0.9%)
22.8
31.3
214.9
34.8
9.42
2.7
Brazil (0.7%)
19.0
65.5
118.8
0.1
7.26
-14.5
Tunisia (0.7%)
18.9
1.3
295.5
3.5
15.65
2.2
Bosnia & Hertz (0.7%)
18.8
11.1
275.5
18.1
14.60
6.4
Hong Kong (0.6%)
16.4
65.5
118.8
0.1
7.26
-39.6
Albania (0.6%)
15.4
31.8
184.6
31.8
11.97
0.0
Morocco (0.6%)
14.7
-3.0
246.6
-0.1
16.73
3.0
World Total
2,592.5
8.3
15,897.2
9.6
6.13
1.2
22
China – What’s Next?
China’s Major Challenges
•
•
•
•
•
•
Rising wages
Aging population
Declining productivity
Bloated and inefficient state enterprises
Internal party corruption
Dilemma of ‘tightening and loosening’ at the same time
– Restrain real estate speculation while keeping growth strong
– Fluctuating value of RMB may discourage speculation but saps
stability need to drive investment.
– Too much govt. stimulus spending, tripled money supply to $20
trillion since 2008 and now more money circulating in China
than in US with an economy twice the size of China!
China’s Growth Slows
25
China’s Sputtering Investment Drive
Shoe Worker Cost Comparison 2014
Country
Cost per Hour
2014/2013 (all costs
included)
Cost % of Change
2014/2013
Exchange Rate USD
2014/2013 (% of
change)
Ethiopia
Bangladesh
Cambodia
India
Vietnam
Nicaragua
Thailand
Indonesia
Dominican Republic
China
El Salvador
Brazil
Mexico
Portugal
Italy
Japan
June data, costs in USDs
0.36/0.32
0.71/0.44
0.85/0.61
0.85/0.80
1.14/0.90
1.27/1.22
1.34/1.32
1.60/1.75
1.88/1.81
2.09/1.90
3.05/NA
3.48/3.59
3.75/3.87
6.37/6.35
18.68/18.26
25.66/32.48
12.5%
61.4%
41.0%
6.3%
26.0%
4.1%
1.5%
-9.4%
3.5%
10%
NA
-3.1%
-3.1%
0.0%
2.3%
-21.0%
19.4/18.8 (3.2%)
76.25/78 (-2.2%)
3,988/3,945 (1.1%)
58/59 (0%)
21,218/21,223 (0%)
25.5/24.7 (3.3%)
32.48/31.27 (3.8%)
11,800/10,200 (15.7%)
42.61/41.89(1.7%)
6.25/6.1 (2.5%)
1.00/1.00 (0%)
2.25/2.22 (1.4%)
12.93/12.69 (1.9%)
1.36/1.32 (-3.0%)
1.36/1.32 (-3.0%)
100/79 (26.6%)
27
Rates of Exchange vs. US Dollar
(Percent of change since January 1, 2015 in parenthesis)
July 1, 2005
April 23, 2015
Percent Change
Exchange Rate
8.28
6.20 (-0.2)
25.1
VIETNAM
15870
21,585 (-0.9)
-34.5
INDONESIA
9770
12,926 (-4.0)
-33.9
BRAZIL
2.34
3.01 (-13.3)
-28.6
EU
1.21
1.07 (-13.5)
-11.6
THAILAND
41.36
32.4 (-1.6)
21.2
INDIA
43.60
62.9 (-0.1)
-44.3
MEXICO
10.75
15.44 (-4.7)
-43.6
Country
CHINA
28
China
• Major challenge today: Unprecedented cost spiral
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Minimum wage increases
Social insurance costs
Inflation: food, fuel, electricity and water
Labor contract law empowers workers, strikes
Chronic, systemic labor shortages
Higher corporate taxes for JVs
Environmental regulations, energy and water conservation
Appreciation of the RMB/$
Power of domestic consumption
Worker Unrest
29
‘Paradise Lost’
2014 Shoe Worker Cost Per Hour in China
$2.20
$2.09
$2.00
$1.90
$1.80
$1.60
$1.60
$1.50
$1.40
$1.20
$1.16
$1.10
$1.00
$0.80
$0.70
$0.60
$0.60
$0.51
$0.40
$0.45
$0.20
$0.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
China SHOE MARKET 2014-2002
Units in millions of pairs.
Year
Production
Imports
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2002
14,500
14,200
13,600
13,300
13,200
11,500
10,000
10,000
9,600
9,000
7,000
6,500
73.0
55.5
50.3
41.4
32.9
29.0
34.0
22.0
13.8
10.6
8.6
3.8
Exports (% of
change)
10,740 (1.5)
10,577.2 (5.0)
10,071.2(2.0)
9,872.7 (-0.6)
9,929.9(21.5)
8.170.0(0.6)
8,120.0(-0.6)
8,170.0(6.1)
7,700.8(11.4)
6,913.6(38.3)
5,000.0 (29.3)
3,866.0 (NA)
China Shoe Exports Grow Again
The ‘scramble’ continues
Vietnam
• Pro
1. Low cost work force, large shoe making infrastructure with
dozens of industrial factories, mostly branded sport shoes.
2. Hospitable to Taiwan/China entrepreneurs – until recently!
• Con
1. Limited potential for new investment in labor intensive, low
value added industries, like shoes, that have energy and
pollution issues.
2. Severe labor and land limitations especially in HCHC area.
3. Competition for land/workers from high value added sectors.
4. Weak port facilities, and uncertain political climate, but
China/Taiwan investors are rebuilding.
Cambodia
• Pro
1.
2.
3.
4.
Ample, but limited, and low cost labor.
Good start up tax incentives.
Hospitable to China/Taiwan entrepreneurs.
Zero duties to Canada, GSP for EU.
• Con
1. All inputs must be imported, lead times several weeks longer than
China.
2. Active labor unions press for higher wages, new dormitories, and
shorter hours.
3. Small country (about 15.0 million people) – limited potential for
factory expansion, and much competition from higher value added
industries.
India
•
1.
2.
•
1.
Pro
Abundant and low cost labor.
Good supplies of local leather.
Con
Lacking in foreign investment in production and sector
infrastructure – only a few pilot programs to date.
2. Labor laws are not flexible enough on hiring/firing.
3. Shoe clusters are not located near one another – adding
buyer costs/challenges.
4. Local production is heavily in men’s leather and women’s
sandals – more experience in tailored women’s, athletic or
synthetic items would help.
Bangladesh
• Pro
1. Ample and low cost labor, and attractive tax advantages.
2. Good supplies of certain local leather.
3. Access to South Asia shipping lanes.
• Con
1.
2.
3.
4.
Many CSR/political issues – strikes, demonstrations, etc.
Lead times around 30 days more than China.
Most inputs must be imported.
Only a few leading China investors have taken the plunge –
Golden Chang, Stella and Pou Chen.
Ethiopia
• Pro
1. Ample, low cost labor, favorable currency, US zero duties.
2. Good supplies of some leather types.
3. Supportive/stable government – new industrial park, social
stability, pro-investment regulations, etc.
• Con
1.
2.
3.
4.
Expensive and long time/distance logistics, but improving.
Language and culture require workforce training.
Inputs other than leather must be imported.
Foreign investment is essential to competitive production.
Burma in our future?
WSJ June 2014
Mexico
• Pro
1. Large shoe making infrastructure with many capable factories
making leather shoes and boots – Western and women’s items.
2. Good supplies of locally tanned leathers.
3. Zero duties and proximity to US -- fast delivery/reorders.
• Con
1. High labor costs and footwear inputs could be improved.
2. Financial issues for some factories and not all have competitive
management.
3. Currency fluctuations create uncertainties for buyers
4. Despite recent success with key US brands, past failures still weigh
on some buyers, and large segments of the sector are factories
that are too small for the capacity needs of US buyers.
Nicaragua – Very small (6.0), poorest country in Latin America, has no footwear infrastructure
and foreign investment is essential. Low costs, decent shipping and supportive government. Duty free
to US.
El Salvador – Small (6.0) like Nicaragua but more developed and higher cost. Again, there is
not much in the way of footwear infrastructure but some good local factories and input suppliers with
decent shipping and supportive government. Duty free to US.
Dominican Republic – This is a small country (10.0 million) with a long history of foreign
investment – WWW, Timberland, Rocky and now Paqueta from Brazil. Some are now working with Haiti
as well. Duty free like all the Central American countries, but costs close to China. Quick shipping to the
US.
Guatemala – Very similar to El Salvador.
Footwear Overview – China Still Rules
• While costs and labor issues will continue to plague shoe production in
China, they will not derail its dominance anytime soon.
• No where else will draw the massive infrastructure investment needed to
supplant China’s un-paralleled inventory of shoe supply chain investment.
• China remains the irreplaceable source for many shoe categories –
women’s fashion, low price, etc.
• Sport shoes and outdoor items for export have accelerated their move out
of China.
• Niche shoe production will strengthen in some emerging shoe markets –
Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, India, as will as in Ethiopia, Latin
America.
Population Implosion
44
China’s Workforce Decline
Tough Path to Passage (TPP)
• Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
• Participants -- Australia, Brunei Darussalam,
Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New
Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and
Vietnam. (The US has FTAs with everyone except
Brunei, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, and
Vietnam.)
• Complex negotiation especially with Japan on
farm products, and others with IP, environment,
labor issues and services.
Obama Makes TPP Priority
• Three tough hurdles to passage
– Congress must pass trade promotion authority (TPA), ‘fast track’ so deal
cannot be changed by Congress, no filibuster and no amendments – tough sell
to most Democrats in House, need 217 votes and many GOP will not support
Obama.
– Negotiations with 11 others can only be completed with TPA, otherwise no
one will come forward with final position if the know Congress could change
it, but even with TPA final deal is tough for Japan, Vietnam, etc.
– Passage by Congress of final negotiated deal. Even with TPA vote could be
very close in House. Many ‘wild’ card issues – currency manipulation, mistrust
of Obama, holding out for GOP president in 2017 to fix a better deal, etc.
– Overall, many hurdles, weak president who has never in his terms put
together a bipartisan deal, so hard to predict outcome.
Summing Up
• China still rules the shoe sourcing world.
• This is true especially for the US which is so dependent on it
big factory capacities and infrastructure investment to service
its mega retail and brand buyers.
• Niche producers in Asia, Latin America and Africa will grow
and sports shoes will grow the most out of China.
• US shoe business is still expanding, although not at break out
levels.
• Internet sales now are 20% of total sales with the bulk from
companies that have their own stores. MORE TO COME!
Thank you.
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