Transcript Projected World Energy Supplies Solar, Wind Geothermal World Energy Demand Natural Gas Crude Oil JMA Nuclear Electric Coal Decreasing Fossil Fuels Billion Barrels of Oil Equivalent 60 per Year (GBOE) 100 BILLION BARRELS Hydroelectric New Technologies Careers in Oil & Gas Remain Important 024839-2 after Edwards,AAPG.

Projected World Energy Supplies
100
80
Solar, Wind
Geothermal
World Energy Demand
Natural
Gas
Crude Oil
20
1900
JMA
Nuclear Electric
Coal
Decreasing
Fossil Fuels
Billion
Barrels
of Oil
Equivalent 60
per Year
(GBOE)
40
100 BILLION
BARRELS
Hydroelectric
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
New Technologies
1993
Careers in
Oil & Gas
Remain Important
2060
2080
3000
024839-2
after Edwards,
24929
AAPG 8/97
Wells Drilled in the USA
Most Desired Resource
80
80
Gas
70
70
Oil
Gas
Oil
60
60
50
50
Percent
Percent 40
40
Dry
30
30
20
20
Gas
10
10
00
1920
1920
JMA
1930
1930
1940
1940
1950
1950
1960
1960
1970
1970
1980
1980
1990
1990
American Petroleum Institute, 1994
US Domestic Production
Natural
Natural Gas
Gasoline
and
and Other
Other Hydrocarbons
Hydrocarbons
12
12
10
10
88
Thousand
Barrels 66
per Day
44
Crude Oil
22
00
1950
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
1998
American Petroleum Institute, 1999
JMA
United States Petroleum Imports
1950’s
1960’s
1970’s
1980’s
1990’s
2000’s
JMA
15%
20%
36%
42%
50%
?
American Petroleum Institute, 1999
Major Suppliers of Oil to the U.S.
Millions of Barrels Per Day
1.68
1.61
1.48
1.36
Venezuela
Canada
Saudi Arabia
Mexico
U.S. Dept. of Energy
Embassy of Venezuela
12/98 U.S. News & World Report
JMA
DOE Oil Price Forecasts
Linear Trends Predicted Beginning From the Actual Price of Year Listed
Dollars per Barrel
120
1982
100
1981
80
1984
60
1985
1986
40
1987
Actual
1991
20
0
1975
JMA
1995
1980
1985
1990
Year
1995
2000
2005
after U.S. Department of Energy, 1998
1998 Oil Price Forecasts
Nine Organizations
35
$/BBL (1996 Dollars)
30
Widely Divergent Forecasts
Make Planning Difficult
IEA
DOE High
Mobil
25
DRI
20
DOE Base
Nat. Res. Canada
15
Nat. West Sec.
10
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Pet. Econ. Ltd.
Year
DOE Low
JMA
U.S. Department of Energy, 1998
US Oil & Gas Consumption/Efficiency
Technology Drives Efficiency: Population Drives Consumption
18
18
50,000
50,000
(Trillion BTU)
Total
O&G Consumption
Consumption
otal O&G
12
12
40,000
40,000
30,000
30,000
20,000
20,000
10,000
10,000
1975
1975
14
14
V8 mpg
O&G
O&G Consumption
Consumption per
per $$ of
of
Gross
Gross Domestic
Domestic Product
Product
88
66
1971 - 13.6
1982 - 18.6
1988 - 24.3
1980
1980
10
10
44
22
1985
1985
1990
1990
Total O&G Consumption per GDP
16
16
(1987$-1000BTU)
Total O&G Energy Consumption
60,000
60,000
1995
1995
Robert McGill - AAPG Explorer, 11/95
JMA
Impact on Students
Linkage of Petroleum Industry and Geoscience Students
60
120
50
Oil Price
(1996 dollars/barrel)
$/Barrel
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
Year
JMA
100
Petroleum Engineer
Graduates
(Colorado School of Mines)
1960
1970
1980
1990
Colorado School of Mines and
US Department of Energy, 1997
Worst Case Employment Scenario
1,600,000
1,400,000
Global Energy
Demand will
Counter Trend
1,200,000
Total Number
of Petroleum 1,000,000
Industry
Employees 800,000
(FRS Companies)
600,000
400,000
200,000
1974
1979
1984
1989
1994
2000
2005
Arthur L. Smith, CFA - Abilene, Texas, 1996
JMA
Geoscience Demographics
For a Typical Major Oil Company
Age Brackets for Geoscientists Worldwide (2008*)
300
255
250
191
200
100
Gone Fishing
76
50
23
3
0
>25
JMA
153
140
150
26-29
30-34
35-39 40-44
Age (YRS)
45-49
50-54
55-59
60+
*with normal attrition and
no replenishment
US Geoscience Student Enrollment
40,000
40,000
Undergraduate
30,000
30,000
Number
Number
of
of Majors
Majors
20,000
20,000
Arab-Israeli
Arab-Israeli
War
War
US
US Govt.
Govt.
Price
Price
Controls
Controls
Graduate
10,000
10,000
00
JMA
1955
1955
1965
1965
1975
1975
1985
1985
1995
1995
Marcus
Marcus Milling
Milling
AGI,
AGI, 1993
1993
024583
Supply
Bachelor’s Degrees, 1970-1994
800,000
659,495
600,000
Degrees
Granted
400,000
244,348
200,000
94,826
88,906
0
Physicists
John Holbrook Occupational Outlook Handbook
Palaios, Dec. 1997 US Bureau of Labor Statistics
JMA
Geologists Chemists
Biologists
24929
Job Competitiveness
1970-1997 BS Degrees/1997 Jobs
8
6
5.6
4.7
Persons
per Job
4
2.5
1.9
2
0
Physicists Geologists Chemists
John Holbrook Occupational Outlook Handbook
Palaios, Dec. 1997 US Bureau of Labor Statistics
JMA
Biologists
24929
Job Competitiveness
Years to Replace Currently Employed Scientists
20
17.2
15
Years
to
Replace
10.3
10
5
5
2.5
0
Physicists
John Holbrook Occupational Outlook Handbook
Palaios, Dec. 1997 US Bureau of Labor Statistics
JMA
Geologists Chemists
Biologists
24929