Transcript SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD SCATTER Helsinki Model sprawl analysis Paavo Moilanen DGResearch SCATTER WORKSHOP, Brussels, June 8th PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD DGResearch Summary •

SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
SCATTER Helsinki Model sprawl analysis
Paavo Moilanen
DGResearch
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Summary
• Methodology
• Trends – both population and employment are
sprawling
• Public transport policies make population to
deconcentrate and employment to concentrate
• Road pricing measures invert this
• Land use policies (pricing/regul.) can contribute
• Packaging can thus be efficient
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Superzones in the analysis
• Rural
• Urban outside the HMA
Helsinki Metropolitan area (HMA)
• HMA suburbs
• Outer Helsinki Metropolitan Area
• Inner Helsinki Metropolitan Area
• Helsinki centre
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Population and densities in the base forecast
Polpulation and employment:
Relative densities vs 1990:
1990
Households
200000
1995
2000
150000
2005
2010
100000
2015
2020
50000
Rel. change in Households/sq-km
250000
0
Hel
Centre
Inner
HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Oth Urban
Suburbs
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Rural
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Rural
1995
2000
200000
2005
2010
150000
2015
100000
2020
50000
0
Hel
Centre
Inner
HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA Oth Urban
Suburbs
Rural
Rel. change in Employees/sq-km
1990
250000
Employees
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
1990
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Rural
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Speed up current rail services 25%?
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In general (big/radial) rail enhancement
contribute to sprawl!
113 H – Decrease current rail travel times 30%
5.0%
Diff2005
% 2005
Diff2010
% 2010
ur
al
R
rb
an
th
H
O
Su
b
M
A
O
% 2005
5.0%
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
ur
al
R
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
M
A
H
-5.0%
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
O
er
H
In
n
el
C
en
t
re
M
A
0.0%
H
Employees
% 2010
Diff2015
ur
al
Diff2010
R
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
M
A
U
ur
bs
A
M
H
ut
er
H
O
M
A
In
n
er
H
re
en
t
el
C
-10000
U
ur
bs
A
M
M
A
In
n
er
H
re
en
t
el
C
H
ur
al
R
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
M
A
U
ur
bs
A
M
Diff2005
0
H
0.0%
-5.0%
5000
-5000
% 2020
H
O
In
n
er
H
en
t
el
C
H
ut
er
H
M
A
0
-5000
Employees
% 2015
Diff2020
Households
5000
re
Households
Diff2015
ut
er
H
10000
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Like reduction of public transport fares
Relocation from HMA
512 H – Decrease public transport fares by 20 %
5.0%
10000
% 2005
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
0
-5000
He
e
tr
en
C
l
In
rH
ne
M
A
e
ut
O
rH
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
Households
Households
5000
Diff2005
% 2020
0.0%
He
e
tr
en
C
l
In
rH
ne
M
A
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
-5.0%
-10000
From suburban areas towards centre and from rural areas to urban
5.0%
Diff2005
% 2005
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
0
He
-5000
e
tr
en
C
l
In
rH
ne
M
A
e
ut
O
rH
M
A
HM
A
Su
b
bs
ur
th
O
b
Ur
an
l
ra
Ru
Employees
Employees
5000
0.0%
He
-5.0%
e
tr
en
C
l
In
rH
ne
M
A
e
ut
O
rH
M
A
HM
A
Su
s
rb
bu
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
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Planned Metropolitan Area Rail
Investments…
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do not however seem to contribute to sprawl
112 H – HMA plan-public transport rail investments, compare with do-nothing :
5.0%
Diff2005
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
n
HM
A
O
th
Su
Ru
ra
l
bu
H
O
ut
er
Ur
ba
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
He
l
-5.0%
5.0%
Diff2005
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
-5.0%
Ru
ra
l
n
Ur
ba
bu
HM
A
Su
H
O
ut
er
O
th
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
Ce
nt
re
Ru
ra
l
n
Ur
ba
bu
0.0%
HM
A
Su
H
O
ut
er
O
th
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
Ce
nt
re
Employees
% 2010
Diff2015
0
He
l
% 2005
Diff2010
He
l
5000
Employees
0.0%
Ce
nt
re
n
HM
A
O
th
Su
Ru
ra
l
bu
H
O
ut
er
Ur
ba
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
Ce
nt
re
Households
% 2010
-5000
-5000
% 2005
Diff2010
0
He
l
Households
5000
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Road pricing is efficient reducing (population)
sprawl
411 H – Car operating costs +50%
Relocation to HMA
5000
e
tr
en
C
l
I
H
er
nn
M
A
er
ut
O
H
M
A
HM
A
Su
b
bs
ur
th
O
b
Ur
an
% 2005
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
l
ra
Ru
Households
Households
0
He
-5000
5.0%
Diff2005
0.0%
He
A
H
er
ut
O
Diff2005
% 2005
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
0
re
nt
e
lC
In
rH
ne
M
A
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
S
ub
bs
ur
th
O
b
Ur
an
l
ra
Ru
Employees
Employees
M
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
l
ra
Ru
n
5.0%
5000
-5000
In
rH
ne
-5.0%
-10000
He
e
tr
en
C
l
0.0%
He
-5.0%
e
tr
en
C
l
In
rH
ne
M
A
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
b
Su
bs
ur
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
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Marginal cost-based pricing
412 H – Cordon (peak) pricing
Radial Cordons 1.25 €/passage
Orbital Cordons 2.5 €/passage
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Road pricing is efficient reducing (population)
sprawl
412 H – Cordon (peak) pricing
10000
% 2015
In
rH
ne
M
A
e
ut
O
rH
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
Households
0
% 2020
5.0%
0.0%
-10000
He
-5.0%
10000
5.0%
5000
Employees
% 2010
Diff2015
Diff2020
e
tr
en
C
l
% 2005
Diff2010
-10000
M
A
% 2005
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
-5000
He
In
rH
ne
Diff2010
0
e
tr
en
C
l
re
nt
e
lC
Diff2005
In
rH
ne
M
A
e
ut
O
rH
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
Employees
Households
5000
-5000
He
10.0%
Diff2005
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
% 2020
0.0%
He
-5.0%
e
tr
en
C
l
In
rH
ne
M
A
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
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Land use measures
A-type land-use zones
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Pricing land-use seems (also) very efficient
311 H – Annual tax (development impact fee) in non urban zones
+ fiscal incentive (tax reduction) in urban zones
Diff2005
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
n
HM
A
O
th
Su
Ru
ra
l
bu
H
O
ut
er
Ur
ba
A
M
A
M
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
-5.0%
Ru
ra
l
n
Ur
ba
bu
HM
A
Su
H
O
ut
er
O
th
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
rb
s
0.0%
Ce
nt
re
Ru
ra
l
n
Ur
ba
bu
Employees
% 2010
HM
A
Su
H
O
ut
er
O
th
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
Ce
nt
re
% 2005
Diff2010
0
He
l
ne
rH
5.0%
Diff2005
He
l
5000
Employees
In
He
l
-5.0%
-10000
-5000
rb
s
0.0%
Ce
nt
re
n
O
th
Su
Households
% 2010
HM
A
% 2005
Diff2015
Ru
ra
l
bu
H
O
ut
er
Ur
ba
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
Ce
nt
re
-5000
5.0%
Diff2010
0
He
l
Households
5000
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But not always?
331 H – ABC-type land use pricing policy applied to private services
Diff2005
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
0
l
He
nt
Ce
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
Diff2005
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
0
nt
Ce
re
r
ne
In
A
HM
O
er
ut
HM
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
% 2005
5.0%
l
ra
Ru
Employees
Employees
nt
Ce
-5.0%
5000
-5000
0.0%
l
He
-5000
l
He
% 2005
5.0%
Households
Households
5000
0.0%
l
He
-5.0%
nt
Ce
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
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Policy package 3 – we can get both
households and employment contained
813 H = 411 (VOC+50%) + 512 (fares –20%) + 311 (dev.fee) + 331 (LU pricing)
Diff2005
Households
5000
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
ur
al
R
rb
an
0.0%
th
l
He
nt
Ce
re
rH
ne
In
A
M
O
H
er
ut
M
A
A
HM
H
O
Su
b
M
A
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
O
H
In
n
er
H
el
C
en
t
re
M
A
0
-5000
% 2005
5.0%
Households
10000
5000
Employees
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
0
nt
Ce
re
r
ne
In
A
HM
O
er
ut
HM
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
% 2005
5.0%
Diff2005
l
ra
Ru
Employees
10000
-10000
s
rb
-5.0%
-10000
l
-5000
He
bu
Su
0.0%
l
He
-5.0%
nt
Ce
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
l
ra
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
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The effect of package 3 is still small
compared to the base trend
Sprawl from 2000 in the base
% 2005
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
% 2010
% 2015
% 2015
% 2020
% 2020
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
l
He
0.0%
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
nt
Ce
re
rH
ne
In
A
M
O
H
er
ut
M
A
A
HM
Rural
bu
Su
s
rb
O
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2015
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
% 2020
% 2020
Employees
35.0%
30.0%
10.0%
5.0%
HMA
Suburbs
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
0.0%
l
He
0.0%
Outer
HMA
Ru
% 2005
5.0%
% 2010
Hel Centre Inner HMA
th
n
ba
Ur
-5.0%
40.0%
Employees
% 2005
5.0%
% 2010
Households
Households
813 H = Policy Package 3 vs. base
Oth Urban
Rural
-5.0%
nt
Ce
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
l
ra
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
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Conclusions
• There are measures that increase sprawl
and can reduce it – these are just examples
• Packaging is needed to increase the good
effects and even out side-effects of single
policies
• The effects of policies are usually small in
the end as there are big background
”basetrends” in operation
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Removal of basetrend 1: Transport prices
10.0%
% 2005
% 2010
Households
5.0%
ur
al
R
rb
an
O
th
Su
b
H
140
U
ur
bs
A
M
O
M
A
er
H
H
In
n
-5.0%
160
ut
er
H
re
M
A
0.0%
el
C
180
% 2020
en
t
200
% 2015
-10.0%
120
100
Freight
40
Public transport
% 2010
20
% 2015
5.0%
-10.0%
rb
an
O
th
U
ur
bs
H
M
A
Su
b
M
ut
er
H
-5.0%
A
0.0%
O
2025
M
A
2020
er
H
2015
In
n
2010
re
2005
en
t
2000
el
C
1995
% 2020
H
1990
Employees
0
1985
% 2005
10.0%
ur
al
Person cars
60
R
80
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
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Removal of basetrend 2: Land use plans
HCU%2005
% 2010
HCU%2015
% 2015
ur
al
R
rb
an
th
H
O
Su
b
M
A
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
O
H
In
n
er
H
re
M
A
0.0%
el
C
50%
% 2020
en
t
Households
HCU%2020
ur
al
R
rb
an
th
U
ur
bs
O
HCU%2005
H
O
M
A
Su
b
ut
er
H
M
M
A
In
n
er
H
en
t
el
C
H
0%
A
-5.0%
re
Housing plan utilisation %
100%
% 2005
5.0%
HCU%2010
HCU%2010
HCU%2015
% 2005
10.0%
HCU%2020
% 2010
ur
al
R
rb
an
O
th
U
ur
bs
M
A
Su
b
M
H
er
H
ut
er
H
O
-5.0%
In
n
en
t
el
C
H
ur
al
R
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
M
A
H
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
O
M
A
In
n
er
H
re
en
t
el
C
0%
A
0.0%
re
50%
% 2020
5.0%
M
A
Employees
% 2015
H
Emp floorspace utilisation %
100%
-5.0%
H
O
th
ur
al
th
M
A
R
ur
al
rb
an
ur
bs
U
Su
b
O
M
A
ut
er
H
M
A
re
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
R
rb
an
ur
bs
U
Su
b
H
2020
M
A
A
O
er
H
en
t
0.0%
M
-5.0%
In
n
el
C
Free
ut
er
H
30
H
5.0%
O
2015
M
A
50
2010
er
H
60
In
n
2005
Households
70
re
S
2000
en
t
M
A
80
el
C
H
Speed(km/h)
100
H
M
A
90
Employees
H
tr
ee
ts
S
O
tr
rb
ee
ita
ts
lA
rte
R
ad
rie
ia
s
lA
rt
A
er
ll
ie
R
oa
s
ds
pe
ak
Sm
H
M
M
A
ai
S
n
tr
ee
H
M
ts
A
S
O
tr
rb
ee
ita
ts
lA
r
R
te
ad
rie
ia
s
lA
A
rt
ll
er
R
ie
oa
s
ds
da
yh
r
M
ai
n
Sm
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
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DGResearch
Removal of basetrend 3: Congestion
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
40
-10.0%
20
5.0%
% 2005
% 2010
% 2015
% 2020
0.0%
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Combined effect of removing all base trends
Diff2005
15.0%
% 2005
Diff2010
ur
al
R
rb
an
th
Su
b
H
M
A
U
ur
bs
A
M
M
A
O
H
O
th
-10.0%
ut
er
H
el
C
ur
al
R
rb
an
-5.0%
H
M
A
U
ur
bs
Su
b
ut
er
H
M
M
A
O
H
In
n
-10000
er
H
re
en
t
el
C
-5000
A
0
% 2020
0.0%
In
n
5000
% 2015
5.0%
er
H
Households
Diff2020
% 2010
re
Diff2015
10000
Households
10.0%
en
t
15000
O
20000
-15000
-15.0%
Diff2005
% 2010
Diff2010
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
M
A
H
-10.0%
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
er
H
In
n
el
C
H
-5.0%
O
M
A
0.0%
re
Employees
ur
al
R
rb
an
% 2020
-15000
-20000
% 2015
5.0%
th
O
Su
b
M
A
H
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
O
In
n
er
H
re
en
t
el
C
-10000
M
A
0
H
Employees
Diff2020
ur
al
Diff2015
5000
en
t
10000
-5000
% 2005
10.0%
R
15000
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
What is left: The growth of population and
economy (mobility) – the megatrend?
Sprawl in the base forecast
Sprawl without base trends
30%
30%
1990
1990
25%
25%
1995
20%
Households
Households
1995
2000
2005
15%
2010
2015
10%
2020
5%
2000
2005
15%
2010
10%
2015
5%
2020
0%
0%
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Hel
Centre
Rural
Inner
HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth
Urban
Rural
1990
25%
1990
25%
1995
1995
2000
20%
20%
2010
15%
2015
10%
2020
5%
Employees
2005
Employees
20%
2000
2005
15%
2010
10%
2015
2020
5%
0%
0%
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Rural
Hel
Centre
Inner
HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Oth Urban
Suburbs
Rural
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Conclusions II
• The combined effects of various base
trends create a ”straightjacket” to policies
• What matters in the end is the growth in
population and economy (leading to
increased mobility and standard of living)
that requires ever more space
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Base forecast changes the policy outcome
HMA Plan without base forecast
Plan with base forecast
% 2005
% 2005
1.0%
% 2010
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
H
M
A
O
U
ur
bs
A
M
M
A
In
n
ut
er
H
el
C
H
O
er
H
re
en
t
ur
al
R
rb
an
0.0%
H
M
A
% 2020
-0.5%
th
Su
b
U
ur
bs
A
M
O
H
In
n
-0.5%
ut
er
H
el
C
er
H
en
t
re
M
A
0.0%
Households
% 2020
% 2015
0.5%
-1.0%
-1.0%
% 2005
% 2005
1.0%
% 2010
% 2010
% 2015
-1.0%
ur
al
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
M
A
H
-1.0%
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
O
M
A
In
n
el
C
-0.5%
H
% 2020
er
H
re
en
t
ur
al
0.0%
R
rb
an
th
O
Su
b
% 2020
H
M
A
U
ur
bs
A
M
ut
er
H
O
M
A
In
n
er
H
re
en
t
el
C
% 2015
Employees
% 2010
0.0%
% 2015
0.5%
% 2020
% 2005
H
Employment
0.5%
R
1.0%
-0.5%
ur
al
% 2015
0.5%
Households
% 2010
R
1.0%
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
Other tests
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Population and densities in the base forecast
Polpulation and employment:
Densities:
4000
250000
Households
200000
1995
2000
150000
2005
2010
100000
2015
2020
Households / sq-km
1990
50000
1990
3000
1995
2000
2500
2005
2000
2010
1500
2015
1000
2020
500
0
0
Hel
Centre
Inner
HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Oth Urban
Suburbs
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Rural
1990
250000
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Rural
1990
15000
1995
1995
2005
2010
150000
2015
100000
2020
2000
Employees/sq-km
2000
200000
Employees
3500
2005
10000
2010
2015
2020
5000
50000
0
0
Hel
Centre
Inner
HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA Oth Urban
Suburbs
Rural
Hel
Centre
Inner
HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Oth Urban
Suburbs
Rural
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Future trends in sprawl
Relative densities vs 1990:
30%
1990
25%
Households
1995
20%
2000
2005
15%
2010
2015
10%
2020
5%
Rel. change in Households/sq-km
Sprawl:
0%
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
1995
2000
Employees
2005
2010
15%
2015
10%
2020
5%
0%
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Rural
Rel. change in Employees/sq-km
1990
20%
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Rural
25%
Hel Centre Inner HMA
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Rural
1990
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Hel Centre Inner HMA
Outer
HMA
HMA
Suburbs
Oth Urban
Rural
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Other investment tests
• Effect of Road inv. plan in HMA was small
• Effect of PLJ plan overall in HMA was small
• Effect of orbital investments in HMA was
small
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Regulation OK (but how done in practise?)
321 H – ABC-type land use regulation policy applied to private services
re
nt
e
lC
In
rH
ne
M
A
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
S
ub
bs
ur
th
O
b
Ur
an
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
l
ra
Ru
In
rH
ne
M
A
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
10.0%
Diff2005
5000
l
ra
Ru
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
0
re
nt
e
lC
In
rH
ne
M
A
H
er
ut
O
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
% 2005
Diff2010
l
ra
Ru
Employees
Employees
re
nt
e
lC
-5.0%
10000
-10000
0.0%
He
-5000
-5000
He
% 2005
Diff2010
0
He
5.0%
Diff2005
Households
Households
5000
% 2020
5.0%
0.0%
He
-5.0%
e
tr
en
C
l
In
rH
ne
M
A
e
ut
O
rH
M
A
HM
A
S
u
ub
s
rb
th
O
ba
Ur
n
l
ra
Ru
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
A new employment centre?
DGResearch
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
A new employment centre in the HMA?
211 H – New Centre in East (Vuosaari)
5.0%
Diff2005
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
25000
Diff2010
20000
Diff2015
n
HM
A
O
th
Su
Ru
ra
l
bu
H
O
ut
er
Ur
ba
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
20.0%
% 2010
Employees
15000
10000
5000
% 2005
15.0%
Diff2020
% 2015
% 2020
10.0%
5.0%
Ru
ra
l
n
Ur
ba
bu
Su
H
A
O
th
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
O
ut
er
HM
-10.0%
In
He
l
Ru
ra
l
n
Ur
ba
bu
HM
A
Su
H
O
ut
er
O
th
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
Ce
nt
re
-5.0%
Ce
nt
re
0.0%
0
He
l
Employees
Diff2005
-15000
In
He
l
-5.0%
30000
-10000
0.0%
Ce
nt
re
n
HM
A
O
th
Su
Ru
ra
l
bu
H
O
ut
er
Ur
ba
rb
s
A
M
A
M
ne
rH
In
Ce
nt
re
Households
% 2010
Diff2015
-5000
-5000
% 2005
Diff2010
0
He
l
Households
5000
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Policy package 1
811 H = 411 (VOC+50%) + 512 (fares –20%) + 311 (dev.fee)
Diff2005
10000
5.0%
% 2005
Diff2010
0
nt
Ce
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
% 2015
Households
Households
Diff2020
l
-5000
He
% 2010
Diff2015
5000
Diff2005
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
% 2005
5.0%
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
Ru
l
ra
Employees
Employees
re
Diff2010
0
-5000
nt
Ce
-5.0%
5000
l
He
0.0%
l
He
-10000
nt
Ce
% 2020
0.0%
l
He
-5.0%
nt
Ce
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
r
U
Ru
l
ra
SCATTER WORKSHOP,
Brussels, June 8th
PAAVO MOILANEN / STRAFICA LTD
DGResearch
Policy package 2
812 H = 411 (VOC+50%) + 512 (fares –20%) + 331 (LU pricing)
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
0
re
nt
Ce
r
ne
In
A
HM
O
er
ut
HM
A
A
HM
b
Su
bs
ur
O
th
n
ba
Ur
-5000
r
ne
In
A
HM
O
er
ut
HM
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
nt
Ce
re
rH
ne
In
A
M
O
H
er
ut
M
A
A
HM
bu
Su
s
rb
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra
th
n
ba
Ur
% 2005
5.0%
Diff2010
% 2010
Diff2015
% 2015
Diff2020
% 2020
0
l
He
l
He
l
ra
Ru
Diff2005
re
0.0%
-5.0%
5000
nt
Ce
% 2005
Diff2010
Households
5000
l
He
-5000
Employees
5.0%
Diff2005
l
ra
Ru
Employees
Households
10000
0.0%
l
He
-5.0%
nt
Ce
re
ne
In
A
M
rH
O
HM
er
t
u
A
A
HM
Su
s
rb
bu
O
th
n
ba
Ur
Ru
l
ra