Transcript Presentación de PowerPoint

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE RISK ASSESSMENT SUPPORT
WP2 Concept of the risk assessment tool
with the planned components
1st Stakeholders’ Workshop
Katowice, March, 5th, 2015
Andrzej Białas, Dariusz Rogowski, Jacek Bagiński
Design of the CIRAS tool – Input
1. State of the art – analysis of the existing
solutions
2. Requirements based on the stakeholders’
needs and expectations
3. Ciras project requirements and constraints
4. Early experimentations
Design of the CIRAS tool
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State of the art – legal requirements
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• Council Directive 2008/114/EC of 8 December 2008 on
the identification and designation of European critical
infrastructures and the assessment of the need to
improve their protection
• COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT on a new
approach to the European Programme for Critical
Infrastructure Protection Making European Critical
Infrastructures more secure
• COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION on a
European Programme for Critical Infrastructure
Protection 2006
• national regulations
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State of the art – standards
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Risk and assets management standards
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ISO 31000:2009 - Risk management – Principles and guidelines
ISO/IEC 31010:2009 - Risk management – Risk assessment techniques
ISO Guide 73:2009 - Risk management – Vocabulary
ISO/IEC 27000 family - Information technology – Security techniques – Information
security management systems
ISO 55001:2014 - Asset management – Management systems – Requirements
Risk related technical standards
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ISO 17776:2000 - Petroleum and natural gas industries – Offshore production
installations – Guidelines and tools for hazard identification and risk assessment
ISO/DTS 16901 - Guidance on performing risk assessment in the design of onshore
LNG installations including the ship/shore interface
NORSOK standard Z-013 - Risk and emergency preparedness analysis
MIL_STD_1629A - Procedures for performing a Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality
Analysis (FMECA)
IEC 61025 (2006) - Fault tree analysis (FTA)
IEC 62502 (2010) - Analysis techniques for dependability – Event tree analysis (ETA)
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State of the art – frameworks
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BMI (ger. Budesministerium des Innern) - The Federal Ministry of Interior
(Germany), the Federal Office for Civil Protection and the Disaster Response
and the Federal Criminal Police Office have issued a baseline protection plan
DECRIS (Risk and Decision Systems for Critical Infrastructures) approach – a
programme funded by the Norwegian Research Council
EURACOM - EUropean Risk Assessment and COntingency planning
Methodologies for interconnected energy networks
MIN (Multilayer Infrastructure Network) – developed by the Purdue School of
Civil Engineering (US).
NIPP (US National Infrastructure Protection Plan)
NISAC (National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center) - a program
within the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS)
NPOIK (National Critical Infrastructure Protection Programme for Poland)
RAMCAP Plus - an extended version of Risk Analysis and Management for
Critical Asset Protection developed by ASME (American Society of Mechanical
Engineers)
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State of the art – methods
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Bayesian Networks
BIA (Business impact analysis)
Bow Tie Analysis
CBA (Cost/benefit analysis)
Consequence/probability matrix
ETA (Event tree analysis)
FMEA/FMECA (Failure mode effect analysis)
FTA (Fault tree analysis)
HAZOP (Hazard and operability)
LOPA (Layers of Protection Analysis)
MCDA (Multi-criteria decision analysis)
PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis)
RVA (Risk and Vulnerability Analysis)
SWIFT (Structured “What if” Technique)
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State of the art – tools (1/2)
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BowTieXP - BowTie Analysis
CAFTA (Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System) – FTA, ETA
Expert Choice - MCDA (Multi-criteria decision analysis)
Free Web-based Fault Tree Analysis Software - FTA
GeNIe 2.0 - Bayesian Networks, Influence diagrams, Probabilistic
models
GRC (Governance, Risk and Compliance) - risk identification and
assessment
HAZOP Manager - HAZOP, PHA, Hazid (Hazard identification),
FMEA/FMECA
HAZOP+ 6.0 - HAZOP
InfraRisk - Preliminary Hazard Analysis, Bow Tie model with Faultand Event Tree Analysis
LOPAWorks® 3 - LOPA
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State of the art – tools (2/2)
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Open FTA - FTA
OSCAD - Business Impact Analysis, Consequence/ Probability Matrix
PHAWorks® 5 - PHA, HAZOP, SWIFT, FMEA
QCA tool – ValueSec toolset for MCDA (Multi-criteria decision
analysis)
RAM Commander - FMEA/FMECA, Fault Tree Analysis, Event Tree
Analysis
Reliability Workbench - FMEA/FMECA, FTA, ETA, Markov Analysis
RiskSpectrum PSA - FMEA, FTA, ETA
THESIS BowTie - BowTie Analysis, Layers of Protection Analysis
(LOPA)
WCK GRC – risk management
Xfmea (Synthesis Platform) - FMEA/FMECA
XFTA – FTA
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State of the art – method
assessment criteria
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State of the art – methods
assessment summary
Threshold for choosing the best methods >=30 points (max 48)
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State of the art – tools assessment
criteria
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State of the art – tools assessment
summary
Threshold for choosing the best tools >=30 points (max 46)
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Requirements based on the
stakeholders’ needs and expectations
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CIRAS STAKEHOLDERS’ WORKSHOP
QUESTIONNAIRE
Objective:
to collect expert input from CI stakeholders
for an appropriate functional concept
of the toolset to be implemented within
the CIRAS toolset.
The stakeholders’ answers and conclusions will influence
• the functions of the toolset
• the layout of the toolset
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Ciras project requirements and
constraints
• Use of the ValueSec solution in CIRAS assessment
o Integration of risk assessment tools
o Cost-benefits assessment
o Consideration of social, political, legal
restrictions
• Identification of components (incl. their
communication aspects)
• Technology of the project fulfilment determined
• Time /budget constraints
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General scheme of the ValueSec
decision framework
Security measures
to assess
Aggregated results for decision
maker
Assets
Decision contexts
Threats
#1public mass event
#2 mass transportation
#3 air transport/airport
RRA – Risk Reduction Assess. (OSCAD)
CBA – Cost-Benefit Assessment
QCA – Qualitat. Criteria Assess.
#4 communal security
planning
#5 cyber threats
Budget
Social
values
Ciras has quite a different
decision context 15
Ciras toolset concept
Authentication module
Reporting
/dashboard
Ciras framework facade
Interdependencies
diagram
Knowledge base
RRA –
Risk Reduction
Assessment
Analyses manager
OSCAD-Ciras
component
FTA component?
CBA – Cost-Benefit
Assessment
CBA
component
QCA – Qualitative
Criteria Assessment
QCA
component
This colour –
„Candidate component”
ETA component?
Other
component?
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RRA: OSCAD-based early
experimentations
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Dictionaries, configuration, management
External event acqusition
Document management
Technical system,
SCADA
Tasks management
Risk analysis (AORA/PORA,ABIA/PBIA)
Audit management
Tasks scheduler
Incident management
External interfaces
OSCAD system
Asset inventory
Fire protection,
antiburglary
systems
ERP
Business continuity planning
Measures of effectiveness
IT monitoring
Reporting
Redundant
OSCAD
Incident
statisctics
Other OSCAD
Other OSCAD
• BS25999 (ISO 22301)
• ISO/IEC 27001
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RRA: Bow-tie model
implementation
Analyzing causes of hazardous events:
• AORA – Asset Oriented Risk Analyzer
• PORA – Process Oriented Risk Analyzer
Analyzing multidimensional consequences:
• ABIA – Asset Oriented Business Impact Analyzer,
• PBIA – Process Oriented Business Impact Analyzer
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RRA: Causes/consequences
diversifications
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Causes: AORA/PORA
Consequences: ABIA/PBIA
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Scenario relevant analyses
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CBA: CBA environment for CIs
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QCA: QCA environment for CIs
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Experiment – summary
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• indirect implementation of the bow-tie model
• enhanced focus on CIs reporting is needed
• FTA (Fault Tree Analysis), ETA (Event Tree
Analysis), FMECA (Failure Mode Effects Analysis),
… additional modules needed?
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Ciras toolset concept
Authentication module
Reporting
/dashboard
Ciras framework facade
Interdependencies
diagram
Knowledge base
RRA –
Risk Reduction
Assessment
Analyses manager
OSCAD-Ciras
component
FTA component?
CBA – Cost-Benefit
Assessment
CBA
component
QCA – Qualitative
Criteria Assessment
QCA
component
This colour –
„Candidate component”
ETA component?
Other
component?
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Way ahead of tool implementation
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• Interdependencies and cascading effects
• OSCAD-Ciras, CBA, QCA will be integrated into the
Ciras toolset
• All three components (RRA_OSCAD, CBA, QCA)
will be updated to be more focused on CIs
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Thank you for your attention!
Andrzej Białas
Project manager
EMAG
[email protected]
+48 32 2007711
www.cirasproject.eu
Co-funded by the Prevention, Preparedness and Consequence Management of Terrorism and other Securityrelated Risks Programme of the European Union