Transcript Prezentacja programu PowerPoint

Governmental Centre for Strategic Studies
SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR
DEMAND IN POLAND
FEASIBILITY WORKSHOP ON SKILL NEEDS FORECASTING
IN EUROPE
20-21 October 2005
PAFOS, CYPRUS
Elżbieta Majchrowicz
Governmental Centre for Strategic Studies
www.rcss.gov.pl
ORIGIN OF THE SYSTEM OF
FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND
IN POLAND
 establishing the Intergovernmental Task Force on Forecasting Labour
demand within the Governmental Centre for Strategic Studies (GCSS)
as an auxiliary body for the Council of Ministers - 1998
 Composition of the Task Force:
- chairman – vice-president of GCSS
- vice-chairmen – vice-president of Central Statistical Office (CSO),
deputy minister of labour
- members - representatives of GCSS, CSO, ministries, the world of
research and the world of work.
 Objective of the Task Force: drawing up a concept of computerised
integrated system of forecasting labour demand in Poland.
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RESPONSIBILITIES OF THE
INTERGOVERNMENTAL TASK FORCE ON
FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND
 initiating studies, working papers and research related to
forecasting the situation on the labour market;
 defining needs in terms of information sources necessary to
conducting labour demand projections;
 consulting and approving research methodology and
programmes of implementation of particular parts of the forecast;
 periodically presenting conclusions emerging from the forecasts
to the Council of Ministers.
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RATIONALE FOR ESTABLISHING THE
SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND
IN POLAND
Projecting labour demand is crucial to proper decision-making in
the field of social, educational and labour market policy. Knowledge
on the economic potential and its effectiveness should be based upon
reliable and credible information: gathered, verified, processed and
updated on the grounds of a rational and objective information
system.
For the existing limitations there is a necessity of establishing an
appropriate system of forecasting the situation on the labour
market as a prerequisite for adequate planning and programming
economic, social and education policy.
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NOVEMBER 2004
LAUNCH OF THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING
LABOUR DEMAND IN POLAND
The System is available on the website
www.sppp.gov.pl
(access to certain modules is restricted)
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SPECIAL ROLE OF THE SYSTEM
 allows the decision-makers and politicians to competently inform the
society about expected changes on the labour market, related to projected
directions of the economic development;
 enables more optimal allocation of human resources;
 allows to plan changes in the education system with adequate time
advance;
 facilitates preparation and organisation of upskilling and retraining
persons performing occupations for which the demand in the labour
market will be declining;
 this sort of data provided to pupils and students before they have taken
decisions on further education or training, will help them plan their
educational and professional career in a more informed way.
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THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR DEMAND IS
FIRST EVER IN POLAND A PROPOSAL OF
COMBINING
DATABASES,
PREDICTIVE
INSTRUMENTS AND COMPUTING TOOLS INTO AN
ENTIRETY CONSTITUTING AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM
AIMING AT PRESENTING AND PROJECTING
ECONOMIC PHENOMENA, ESPECIALLY SITUATION
ON THE LABOUR MARKET AND LABOUR DEMAND.
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THE SYSTEM OF FORECASTING LABOUR
DEMAND UTILISES THE FOLLOWING
FORECASTING METHODS AND MODELS:
 exponential smoothing
 trend model with seasonality
 autoregressive model
 single-equation model
 vector-autoregressive models VAR
 multi-equation models - seemingly unrelated (regression) SUR
 macroeconomic forecast
 expert forecast
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SCOPE OF THE FORECAST
 total demand only
not included: replacement demand, expansion demand
not included: supply side, interaction between demand
and supply
time coverage: 5 years
frequency of the forecast: annual
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DATA SOURCES FOR THE SYSTEM
 yearly
macroeconomic data produced by Central
Statistical Office (e.g. budget revenues and expenditures,
export volume, GDP, inflation indicator, etc.);
 quarterly data derived from the Labour Force Survey in
Poland;
 monthly data produced by labour offices (structural
statistics).
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CLASSIFICATIONS USED BY THE SYSTEM
 Classification of Occupations for the labour market needs
(in line with International Standard Classification of
Occupations ISCO-88 and its new version ISCO-88 COM of
1994 adjusted to the requirements of the EU)
 International Standard Classification of Education
ISCED-97
 Polish Classification of Activities PKD (based on European
Classification of Activities NACE)
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EXAMPLES OF FORECASTS
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Employed by section of activity (NACE) – real estate, renting and business activities (1000) – forecast till 2010
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Employed by minor groups ISCO-88 COM – computing professionals (1000) – forecast till 2010
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Employed by minor groups ISCO-88 COM – miners, shot-firers, stone-cutters and carvers (1000) – forecast till 2008
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Thank you for your attention
Governmental Centre for Strategic Studies
www.rcss.gov.pl
email: [email protected]
[email protected]
Tel. 0048-22-661-89-04
www.rcss.gov.pl