Transcript Sivakumar

COMMUNICATION OF
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
INFORMATION – GLOBAL
PERSPECTIVES
M.V.K. Sivakumar
Agricultural Meteorology Division
World Meteorological Organization
PRESENTATION
•
Introduction
• Importance of Information
• Communication of information – examples from
different
regions
• User community and information for users
• Types of products needed by the users
• Recent developments - technological advances
• Future challenges
• Conclusions
User concerns for environment
and sustainable agriculture
point to the urgent need for a
transition from chemical- and
machinery-intensive to
knowledge- and labor-intensive
farming technologies.
Commercial Energy Use and Cereal Output per Hectare (1972)
4,000
30
3,500
3,000
20
2,500
15
2,000
1,500
10
output per hectare (kilogram)
energy per hectare (109 joules)
25
1,000
output
5
500
0
North
America
Western
Europe
Oceana
Africa
Latin
America
Near
East
Far
East
energy
0
Source: Stout, B.A. 1982. Energy for World Agriculture. In Energy Management and Agriculture. Royal Dublin Society.
INFORMATION
IS
KEY ...
We are drowning in information,
while starving for wisdom …
The World henceforth will be run by PEOPLE
able to put together the
RIGHT INFORMATION
at the
RIGHT TIME.
IMPORTANCE OF AGROMETEOROLOGICAL
INFORMATION
• Useful for both strategical
•
•
and tactical decisions.
Strategic decisions
- Crop planning
- Management practices
- Marketing
Tactical decisions
- Sowing
- Cultivation
- Spraying
- Irrigation scheduling etc.,
COMMUNICATION OF
AGROMETEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION EXAMPLES FROM DIFFERENT REGIONS
ISSUES FROM AFRICA (Akeh and Muchinda, 2002).
• Based on responses from 29 NMHSs and 4 institutions to a
questionnnaire
• All respondents issue agrometeorological bulletins and advisories
• 75% of the respondents do not involve agricultural research and
extension agencies in the preparation or dissemination of agromet
bulletins.
• 80% of respondents stated that their products are targeted at Govt
agencies, NGOs, regional and international organizations.
• 80% of the respondents have not made any effort in obtaining
feedback from users.
• 90% of the respondents have not made any efforts to assess the
economic value and benefit of the use of information provided.
ISSUES FROM ASIA (Kamali and Lee, 2002).
• Based on responses from 14 NMHSs to a questionnnaire
• With the exception of 2 NMHSs, all respondents issue
agrometeorological bulletins and advisories
• In most cases, products are targeted at Govt agencies, large
farming and industry companies. Some provide information to
farmers.
• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.
• Some efforts are made to assess the economic value and
benefit of the use of information provided.
• Early warnings are given and distributed to the authorities.
ISSUES FROM SOUTH AMERICA (Carvajal et al. 2002).
• Based on analysis of eight countries.
• With the exception of 2 NMHSs in South America, all
respondents issue agrometeorological bulletins and advisories
• In most cases, products are targeted at general public,
farmers, association of producers, technicians, authorities, and
commercial companies.
• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.
• No effort is made to assess the economic value and benefit of
the use of information provided.
• Early warnings are given and distributed to the authorities and
farmers.
ISSUES FROM NORTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE CARIBBEAN (Solano and Frutos 2002).
• Very few NMHSs have independent agrometeorological
services. Only Canada, Colombia, Cuba and USA have such
services.
• Few NMHSs
advisories
issue
agrometeorological
bulletins
and
• In most cases, products are targeted at farmers, association of
producers, technicians, authorities, and commercial companies.
• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.
• Yearly evaluation is conducted on the cost of preparing the
bulletins.
• Early warnings are given and distributed to the authorities and
farmers.
ISSUES FROM SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC
(Chan and Whitaker 2002).
• Based on responses from 7 countries to a questionnaire.
• Generally agrometeorological services are provided together
with other services of the NMHSs. Only one country has an
independent service.
• No agricultural research and extension agencies are involved
in issuing agrometeorological bulletins and advisories
• In most cases, products are targeted at farmers, land users,
agricultural researchers, extension workers, land development
personnel, foresters etc.,
• No systematic effort is made to obtain feedback from users.
• Developing countries do not assess the economic value of the
information provided.
ISSUES FROM EUROPE (Dunkel 2002)
• Based on responses from 30 countries and one agency.
• Seventeen of the 30 respondent countries have independent
agrometeorological units.
• In 19 countries, agricultural research and extension agencies
are involved in the preparation of the agrometeorological
bulletins and advisories.
• Nine of the countries target farmers. In seven countries the
target is the government while in 12 countries extension
services or private companies were mentioned as the target.
• In most countries, no systematic effort is made to obtain
feedback from users.
• Most countries also do not assess the economic value of the
information provided.
PROBLEM

LACK OF ADEQUATE INTERACTIONS WITH USERS
INADEQUATE SYNTHESIS
Learn from users about
their requirements and
tailor the information
to their needs
ABUNDANCE OF DATA
 Know which data fit
the information needs
Develop analytical
tools
HOW DO WE DEFINE THE USER COMMUNITY
?
The user community for
agrometeorological data and
information can be understood in its
broadest sense to cover the “spectrum
from institutions and governments to
farmers at the subsistence level”
CATEGORIES OF USERS COULD VARY
• Farming Community
• Research Community
• Governmental Bodies
• Private sector
• Public
• International Agencies.
CONTENT OF INFORMATION VARIES
WITH END USERS






Depending on its purpose, the content of
information can be related to:
special advisories provided to farmers through the
national extension service
general advisories accessed by farmers directly
through the electronic media
early warning advice to prevent famine crisis
development of agricultural planning policies
development of national climate policies as a
follow-up of the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change
general issues disseminated to the public.
INFORMATION MUST BE RELEVANT TO
THE NEEDS OF THE USERS
• In order to be valuable for the end-users, the content of
information must correspond to the particular needs of
the end-user.
• Agrometeorological
information
is
often
not
comprehensive. In many cases, it refers only to the
"meteorological" component (i.e., weather conditions,
forecasts of future weather events, analyses of past
weather)
• It neglects the "agricultural" part, which is the linkage
between physical and biological parameters. This
linkage is required by farmers to make informed
agricultural decisions.
WE NEED TO BE AWARE THAT
USER DEMANDS
ARE DYNAMIC AND SHOULD
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY
LONG-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING
One of the persistent demands from the agriculturists is
to have reliable forecasts of seasonal weather patterns
as it could help them take appropriate decisions.
Farmer demands can vary from multi-year to seasonal
to within-season forecasts.
The activity for which each of these forecasts is needed
and the scale of forecasts vary, but their utility is
unique and hence the demand is consistent.
MULTI-YEAR FORECASTS AND AGRICULTURE
Area
Activity
Parameter
Scale of
Forecast
Response
10 years
Species choice,
spacing in
plantation
Choice of
appropriate
ranges of crops &
varieties
Issue appropriate
seeds, Distribute
hardy smallstock
Culling policy,
retention of
young females in
herd, grazing
development
FORESTRY
Plantation
establishment
Temperature
Rainfall
SEED
PRODUCTION
Strategy
Rainfall
5-10 years
DROUGHTRECOVERY
SUBSIDIES
Rain
2-5 years
Rain
5-10 years
LIVESTOCK
Herd size
MANAGEMENT
SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FARMERS
Weather feature
Response Area
Lead time
Required
Minimum
Precision/Accuracy
Required
Drought
1. To farm/Not to farm
2. Choice of crops & tillage
systems
3 months
90%
Mid Season Drought
- start date
Mid Season Drought
- length
Dry Season - length
Choice of variety &
planting date
Choice of crop
3 months
80%
3 months
60%
1. Disposal of crop residues
2. Fodder rationing to
livestock
1 month
40%
SEASONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FARMERS
Weather feature
Overall Quality of
Rainy Season
Response Area
1. Choice of Crops, crop
varieties & tillage systemsy
Planting Rains - date Timing of field operations
3 months
Minimum
Precision/Accuracy
Required
80%
0.5-1 month
80%
Lead time
Required
Planting Rains nature
End of rainy season
- date
Whether to risk dry
planting
1. Timing of harvest
operations
2. Possibility of late
catchcrops
0.5 month
80%
2 months
80%
Winter rains amount
1. Plan summer crops of
optimum winter ceral crop
2. Possibility of other crops
6 months
80%
WITHIN SEASON FORECASTS AND THE FARMER
Common Farming
Operation
Key Weather Feature(s)
Lead time
Minimum
Precision Response
required
80%
Timing
95%
“
95%
“
80%
“
80%
“
Planting
- seeds
Transplanting
Fodder
- hay
making
- silage
Spraying -
Rain
Dry weather
Dry weather
Dry weather and wind
Dry weather and wind
1-3 days
1-3 days
1-3 days
1-3 days
1 day
General
- top
dressing
Field
- weeding
Operations - inter-row
cultivation
Irrigation
Rain
1-3 days
80%
Timing
Dry weather
Dry weather
1-3 days
1-3 days
80%
60%
Timing
Timing
Past evapo-transpiration data
expected
“
“
“
1 week
1 week
80%
80 %
Adjust
irrigation
schedule
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS -
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
BETTER TOOLS
• Enhanced
computing
manipulation easy.
power
makes
data
• Advances in forecasting techniques are increasing
the lead time and the accuracy.
• Information is becoming available rapidly and at low
cost through modern communication tools such as
internet.
What is best about the internet?
 Fast
and efficient delivery of information
 Variety of resources in “one” place
 Universal(?) access
 Links
Internet for information dissemination
 The
internet can potentially provide an
efficient means of dissemination
 Currently there are several obstacles to its
widespread use
 Once infrastructure is overcome, it may be
limited only to the imagination
 As always, web development requires
knowledge of user needs
BETTER TOOLS (CONTD.)
• Revolutionary changes in audio-video media
make it easy to take the information to users.
• Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and
other spatial modelling tools make it possible to
integrate biological, physical and socio-economic
factors in a holistic manner
INNOVATIVE PARTNERSHIPS
RANET
RANET
Radio and Internet for the Communication of
Hydro-Meteorological and Climate Related Information
The project is a cooperative effort of many national to international
organizations that have come together to provide resources and
technical expertise in order to improve overall access to climate and
weather observations and products.
Person-Person
Technology & Knowledge
Dependency of
Seasonal Forecasts
Modeling
011001
010110
110110
Radio
Fax
Institutions
Other Clim-Weather
Products
Television
Observations
Internet
Training
Satellite and Digital Wireless
Computing
Communications
Institutions
TECH TOOLS FOR SUCCESS
3) At the top of nearly every hour the
uplink station sends the uploaded
information to the satellite for broadcast
over all of Africa.
2) The compiled information
is then sent via the internet
to a satellite uplink station
located in South Africa.
Some of this information is
automatically updated while
other
requires
manual
uploading.
4) The broadcast is then received by
digital radios that are hooked into
computers.
5) The broadcast can be used by
meteorological
services,
extension
agencies, or even local communities
who might use the content to improve
their own products or to translate
information into the local language and
according to local interest.
1) Global, regional, national, and local
information is gathered from various
producers and then blended into single
presentation that is compatible with
satellite broadcast.
6) Technologies, such as the VITA PGS
allow rural communities to and extension
agencies to send information requests,
provide feedback, and receive technical
support.
Current and Planned Coverage
Africa Learning Channels (ALC)
•Voice Content
•Data (multi-media content)
RANET Is Broadcast On the ALC Data Channel
•4mb of data at the top of nearly every hour
•several 25mb broadcasts each week
WorldSpace Foundation
Africa Learning Channel
Multi-Media Service Broadcast Capacity
The Africa Learning Channel (ALC) Multi-Media
service broadcasts content at a rate of 64kbps,
which is delivered in small packages that fit within
a 21 megabyte broadcast hour.
Currently the ALC Multi-Media Service rotates
material on a six hour basis each day. Although
much of the material is rebroadcast to ensure that
users have received content, there is nonetheless
a total weekly capacity, with the current schedule,
of 882 megabytes. Alterations to the schedule
could potentially expand this capacity to 1.2
gigabytes per week.
Information broadcast over the system is sent
directly to a user’s hard drive where it can be
viewed instantaneously and without bandwidth
restrictions associated with land line
infrastructure. Information remains on a user’s
hard drive until it expires or is replaced by
updated content.
The POWER OF NETWORKS
•Bankilare Experience
•Rural Women
•Environmental Issues
•Integration
WorldSpace digital radio receiver protected by
wooden box at low amplitude FM radio station in
Bankilare, Niger.
FUTURE CHALLENGES: ADAPT A BOTTOM-UP
APPROACH
Much of the agrometeorological information, despite
the rapid technological advances, does not reach
small farmers with limited means.
Back to the basics - involve the users right from the
beginning ie., adopt a bottom-up approach.
Recognize that users are many and they have
diverse needs.
FUTURE CHALLENGES: NEED A PARADIGM
SHIFT FROM DATA TO INFORMATION
Data collection in itself is a futile exercise if no
information is generated from the data. Data
gathering dust in filing cabinets is wasted human
effort and money.
Information in itself is of no value if nobody uses it.
Hence ask why we generate this information in the
first place.
Outdated information serves no one. If information
can not be generated on time for the end user, why
do we even bother to produce it ?
FUTURE CHALLENGES - NEED TO OPERATIONALIZE THE
FORECASTS
Operational Status Depending on Region
Forecast
Timescale
Multi-year
Seasonal
Within season
Untried
most areas
some
equatorial and
high latitude
areas
most areas
Experimental Pre-operational
at
global/hemispheric
al scale
many areas
many areas
including Southern
Africa
Operational
-
-
a number of
promising areas
including southern
Africa
parts of USA,
Australia and a
few favoured
areas
well researched
areas including
USA and Europe
some developed
economies
CONCLUSIONS
Exciting opportunities exist today to help the agricultural
world through agrometeorological advisory services.
A better understanding of the user needs is needed to
provide agrometeorological information in a timely and
useful manner.
More active collaboration among agrometeorologists,
agronomists, extension agents and non-governmental
organizations should be encouraged.
Improved two-way communication between farmers,
policymakers and researchers is crucial.
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION