南相馬市内避難所 Shelters in Minamisoma

Transcript 南相馬市内避難所 Shelters in Minamisoma

Impacts of the mass and long evacuation on local community and handicapped people after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident - Report from the Genpatsu frontline district 南相馬からの報告 Minamisoma Municipal General Hospital Assistant Director Tomoyoshi Oikawa, MD 南相馬市立総合病院及川友好 2015/03/15 in Sendai

南相馬市立総合病院 Minamisoma Municipal General Hospital Cities around the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Powerplant Soma Minamisoma Namie Futaba Ohkuma Tomioka Naraha Hirono 1F: Fukushima No.1 Nuclear power plant 2F: Fukushima No.2 Nuclear power plant 1F から 20km 圏内 20km from 1F 20~30km 圏内 20-30km from 1F

震度６の地震の後、8mを超す大津波が南相馬市を襲った (3月11日15時37分） Terrible Tsunami 8 meters tall followed by the earthquake with a seismic intensity of 6 2011 March 11 th 15:37 Minamisoma

3 月 13 日：南相馬市内避難所（石神一小）１次避難 Minamisoma City Evacuation Center (Ishigami Daiichi Elementary School) 2011.Mar.13

南相馬市内避難所 Shelters in Minamisoma 震災の後、 146 の避難所が設置されたが、 1 か月後には 5 か所に集約された。殆どの避難所が 7 か月以内に閉鎖、最後の避難所は 2012 年 2 月 23 日に閉鎖した。 Just after disaster, 146 shelters was set up.

All shelters was aggregated into 5 large refuges within 1 month.

Most of the shelters was closed within 7months.

Last shelter was closed 2012.Feb.23

The Genpatsu frontline district Minamisoma city is located in 10~40km away from Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant where residents are able to live in 南相馬市福島第一原子力発電所から 10km~40km 地点に位置する居住区では最も原発に近い地方自治体 Governmental instruction 20km in radius : evacuation zone : 2011.Mar.12~ 20-30km in radius: indoor restriction zone: 2011.Mar.15

evacuation-prepared zone: 2011.Apr.22~2011.Sep.30

These restrictions were lifted except for 10km in radius 政府指示 20km 圏内 20~30km 圏内：避難指示： 2011 年 3 月 12 日：屋内退避指示： 2011 年 3 月 15 日緊急時避難準備区域： 2011 年 4 月 22 日～ 2011 年 9 月 30 日

2011.Mar.15~Mar.18

： 2 nd Evacuation of Citizen to Other Prefectures by Bus There was no choice but the long distance evacuation to avoid nuclear contamination 放射線の被曝を避けるためバスによる市民の２次避難が行われた 6

Mass and long distance evacuation in hospital in 2011.Mar.20

Hospital also had no choice 107 inpatients remained in hospital had to be transported to over 200km away institutions by self-defense viechles 病院でも同様に遠隔地の病院へ全患者 107 人が搬送された。 7

新潟県への搬送患者

Patients taken over in Niigata Prefecture 92

福島医大への搬送患者

Patients taken over at Fukushima Medical Univ 96 4 11 107

Impact of long distance and mass evacuation

大規模避難と避難は地域社会に何をもたらしたか

number of residents 80000 70000 60000 震災前後の南相馬市居住人口比較

71561

Population in Minamisoma City before and after the 3.11

緊急時避難準備区域解除

’Emergency Evaluation Preparation Zone’ Lifted on 9/30/2011

50000

2011.May.8

24163 residents

40000 30000 20000 10000 0

51534

（

％） 10

number of residents 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 南相馬市の年代別居住人ロ（震災前後の比較

)

Comparison of the population of Minamisoma City before and 4 years after the 3.11

震災前 Before 2015/2/19 Green: Population by age before the earthquake (2011.Mar) Orange: Population by age after the earthquake (2015.Feb)

Comparison of the Population Ratio of Minamisoma city and the National Average by age category 震災前後の年齢別人口構成全国平均 National average 南相馬市 Minamisoma city

2011 年 11 月 2011.Nov

2011 年 1 月 (Before disaster) 2015 年 2 月 (4yrs. after) 年少人口

(0-14 year olds)

生産人口

(15-64 year olds)

老年人口

(65 years and older)

13.1% 63.6% 23.3% 13.8% 60.5% 25.9% 9.0% 48.1% 32.9% 12 短期間で少子高齢化社会へ移行 Minamisoma city has turned to be aging society just after disaster

The impact of mass evacuation itself

Mortality risk amongst nursing home residents evacuated Increase of stroke incidence rate

避難それ自体の影響

老人保健施設入居者の死亡率脳卒中発症率の増加 13

Mortality Risk amongst Nursing Home Residents Evacuated after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident

Estimated pre- and post-earthquake survival.

Nomura S, Gilmour S, Tsubokura M, Oikawa T , et al. (2013) Mortality Risk amongst Nursing Home Residents Evacuated after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident: A Retrospective Cohort Study. PLoS ONE 8(3): e60192. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0060192

http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0060192

Impact on stroke incidence rate of the Great East Japan Earthquake in Minamisoma city 南相馬市における東日本大震災の脳卒中発症率への影響

Monthly incidence of Stroke Patients per 100,000 (population/age-quota adjusted) 1 ヶ月毎の人口 10 万人あたりの入院者数 ( 人口調整、年齢調整後） The Great East Japan Earthquake 2011.3.11 2013.12

Poisson regression analysis

Poisson 回帰分析

Relative Risk 95% C.I.

P Value

性別 Gender 女性 female 男性 male 年齢 Age 35-64 yrs.

1 1.77

1 NA 1.52-2.06

NA <0.001

<0.001

over 65 yrs.

発症率 Incidence 震災前 pre disaster 震災後 post disaster 発症率ｘ年齢 Incidence ｘ age 35-64 yrs.

over 65 yrs.

4.32

1 1.49

1 1.02

3.51-5.30

NA 1.01-2.21

NA 0.70-1.48

震災後相対リスクは 2.4

倍に Relative Risk increased by 2.4 times after 3.11

0.04

<0.001

震災関連死の割合

Proportion of disaster-related deaths

（ 2014/10/04 死亡届より）福島県全体 Fukushima prefecture 南相馬市 Minamisoma 直接死 Direct deaths 1603 死亡届等 Deaths registration 225 震災関連死 Disaster-related deaths 1777 525 111 458 合計 Total 3605 1094 災害関連死は様々な要因で起こっているが、大規模避難が最も重大な因子であったと考えられる。 Disaster-related death can be occurred by various factors Mass evacuation may be one of the most important factor

銘記すべきこと Please don’t forget 原発事故は起こり得る It is no doubt Nuclear power plant will be out of order 社会構造の破壊により高齢化は促進する Social structure will turn to be aging society after mass Evacuation 17 の原子力発電所 51 基の原子炉 Red circles indicate NPP in Japan 大規模避難は深刻な悲劇（災害関連死）を引き起こす Mass evacuation itself makes severe tragedy (disaster-related death)

Thank you for your attention 20