Transcript 危機に瀕する世界のコムギ World Wheat at Stake

Wheat/Barley Joint Conference
Tottori, Japan
27 – 28 November, 2004
World Wheat at Stake
-- Contemporary Global Grain
Supply Demand Competition –
危機に瀕する世界のコムギ
Shoichi Ito, Ph.D.
Tottori University, Japan
http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp
November 27, 2004
Crisis coming from Weak Demand
消費減退から来る危機…..
Losing the competition
among the crops….
競争に負けていく!!!
No population explosion!!
人口爆発は来ない！！
Fig. 8. Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Billions Million
Billions
10
80
8
60
40
?!
6
4
20
2
0
0
2075
2100
2125
Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion,
(http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)
2150
Population size
100
Annual Increments
Population size
Annual increments
Millions
Fig. 16. Evolution of world total production for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, ’61-‘04
(Million MT)
700
Rice
600
Wheat
Corn
500
Soybean
400
300
200
100
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, Japan June 15, 2002. (Original sources are
from ERS/USDA; PS&D View , November 2004).
Note: Rice is milled basis.
Evolution of world total consumption of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans
世界におけるコメ、コムギ、コーン及びダイズの消費量の推移（総消費量）
(Million tons, 百万ﾄﾝ)
800
Rice・コメ
Corn・コーン
700
Wheat・コムギ
Soybean・ダイズ
600
500
400
300
200
100
ソース：伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑﾍﾟｰｼﾞ(鳥取大学);　世界の食料統計(http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/graph/index.html), 2004年11月.
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
Growth Rates in Population and Grains in the World
世界の人口･食料増加率
(UN, USDA, 2001)
Pop. Growth rate/year
Prod’n. growth rate/year
人口増加率/年
（‘90-’10）
• 1990
1.6%
• 1992
1.5%
• 1994
1.4%
– 2000 1.3%
– 2025 0.8%
– 2050 0.3%
生産増加率/年
(1996-2000)
コメRice
1.7%
コムギWt 1.7%
コーンCn 2.8%
ダイズSb 5.5%
Fig.1. Per capita consumption of rice for Japan, Taiwan,
South Korea and China during 1961 - 2004
(Kg)
Milled basis
200
Japan
T aiwan
South Korea
China
160
120
80
40
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp)
Original data sources: USDA: PS&D View , November 2004; USBC: International Data Base, July 2003.
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0
(Kg)
Fig.2. Per capita consumption of rice for China during 1970 - 2004
Milled basis
115
110
105
China rate
-0.331%
100
2000’s
95
90
85
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp)
Original data sources: USDA: PS&D View , November 2004; USBC: International Data Base, July 2003.
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
80
Wheat per capita consumption in Asian countries
(Kg/capita, Kg/人)
アジア諸国及び旧ソビエト地域における一人当たりコムギの消費量
160
FORMER SOVIET UNION ・旧
ｿﾋﾞｴﾄ(Kg/capita, Kg/人)
CHINA ・中国
J APAN ・日本
INDONESIA・ｲﾝﾄﾞﾈｼｱ
MALAYSIA ・ﾏﾚｰｼｱ
FOR MER SOVIET UNION ・旧ｿﾋﾞｴﾄ
140
450
400
350
120
300
100
250
80
200
60
150
40
100
ソース：伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑﾍﾟｰｼﾞ(鳥取大学);　世界の食料統計(http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/graph/index.html), 2004年11月.
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
0
1964
0
1962
50
1960
20
Fig.4　Per capita pork consumption in Japan, S. Korea, China, and Thailand
（1961－2004)
(kg/capita)
50
Japan
China
Taiwan
45
40
S.Korea
Thailand
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Source：USDA: PS&D Online, September 2004.
伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑﾍﾟｰｼﾞ(鳥取大学)：世界の食料統計(http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/graph/index.html), 2004年10月.
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
0
Fig. 5　Per capita consumption of broiler in Japan, S. Korea, China, Taiwan and Thailand
（1964－2004)
(kg/capita)
35
Japan
S.Korea
Thailand
Taiwan
China
30
25
20
15
10
5
Source：USDA: PS&D Online, September 2004.
伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑﾍﾟｰｼﾞ(鳥取大学)：世界の食料統計(http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/graph/index.html), 2004年10月.
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
0
Evolution of per capita consumption of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans
世界におけるコメ、コムギ、コーン及びダイズの一人当たり消費量の変化
(Kg/capita, Kg/人)
120
Rice・コメ
Corn・コーン
Wheat・コムギ
Soybean・ダイズ
100
80
60
40
20
ソース：伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑﾍﾟｰｼﾞ(鳥取大学);　世界の食料統計(http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/graph/index.html), 2004年11月.
13
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
Fig. 14. Substitute relationships among crops in production and consumption
Prod’n
Rice
Wheat
Prod’r
Soybn
Food
Feed
Rice
Corn
Wheat
Soybn
Men
Fruit
Vege
Other
Corn
Soybn
Syml
Livestk
Livestk
Corn
Rice
Wheat
P
Impacts of shift in supply and demand curves
A
S
p1
S’
E
E’
p2
B
B’
D
Q
０
q1
q2
World total rice, corn and wheat for food, 1961-2002
Million mt
450
400
Rice
Corn
Wheat
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0
World total rice, corn and wheat for feed, 1961-2002
Million mt
450
Rice
400
Corn
Wheat
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0
World total rice, corn and wheat for process, 1961-2002
Million mt
70
Rice
Corn
Wheat
60
50
40
30
20
10
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0
Competition among major crops:
Wheat, Rice, Corn, Soybeans
米、小麦、コーン、大豆の
作物間競争
Not only that------Meat and Dairy
それだけではない！！
肉類も競争に加わった！！！
Fig. 14. Substitute relationships among crops in production and consumption
Prod’n
Rice
Wheat
Prod’r
Soybn
Food
Feed
Rice
Corn
Wheat
Soybn
Men
Fruit
Vege
Other
Corn
Soybn
Syml
Livestk
Livestk
Corn
Rice
Wheat
World per capita consumption for wheat, corn and soybean,
1993-2013
kg/capita
90
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Rice
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
0
World consumption of grains for food, 1993-2013
Million mt
600
Wheat (Food)
Soybean (Food)
Corn (Food)
Rice (Consumption)
500
400
300
200
100
Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
0
World consumption of grains for feed, 1993-2003
Million mt
600
Wheat (Feed)
Corn (Feed)
Soybean (Feed)
500
400
300
200
100
Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
0
Fig. 20 World rice per capita consumption; 1960-2050
kg/capita
80.0
World (China Rate -0.331% )
World (China Rate -3.352)
World (China Rate -1.77%)
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
China rate
- 0.331%
China rate
-1.77%
China rate
-3.452%
30.0
20.0
10.0
Average rate formula: Xt+n = (1 + r)nQt
2050
2047
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
0.0
Fig. 21 World rice total consumption; 1960-2050
1000mt
600000
World (China Rate -0.331% )
World (China Rate -3.352)
World (China Rate -1.77%)
500000
400000
China rate
- 0.331%
300000
China rate
– 1.77%
China rate
– 3.452%
200000
100000
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
Weaker demand for wheat
means…
コムギの需要が減退すると・・・
•
•
•
•
Over-supply of wheat
Decline global market prices
Loss to producers
End up with smaller wheat
production
Fig. 12. Nominal
world
price
of corn
rice,
wheat,
Fig.&Table 1. Nominal
world prices
of rice, wheat,
and soybeans
(Annual corn
since 1961)and soybeans
（$/t）
600
500
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Soybeans
400
300
200
100
ｿｰｽ1：IMF：International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 2003.　（http://ifs.apdi.net/imf/)
注１：コメ：Bangkok, 5% broken, milled.　コムギ：No.1, Hard Red, US Gulf.　コーン：Yellow No.2, Chicago.　ダイ ズ：US(Rotterdam)
注２：2004年の価格ﾃﾞｰﾀは、USDAのWASDE, October 2004より算出した。但し、コメはUSDAのRice Outlook, October 2004 のThai100%のﾃﾞｰﾀより算出した。
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
0
Fig. 13. Real
price
wheat,
and1961)
soybeans
Fig.&Tableworld
2. Real world
prices of of
rice, rice,
wheat, corn
and soybeanscorn
(Annual since
（$/t）
2000
1800
Rice
Corn
1600
Wheat
Soybeans
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
ｿｰｽ1：IMF：International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 2003.　（http://ifs.apdi.net/imf/)
注１：コメ：Bangkok, 5% broken, milled.　コムギ：No.1, Hard Red, US Gulf.　コーン：Yellow No.2, Chicago.　ダイズ：US(Rotterdam)
注２：2004年の価格ﾃﾞｰﾀは、USDAのWASDE, October 2004より算出した。但し、コメはUSDAのRice Outlook, October 2004 のThai100%のﾃﾞｰﾀより算出した。
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
0
What to do for future?
1. Develop new strategies for
more food consumption
2. More feed use
3. Processed food using wheat
4. Cut production costs
Thank you!