Transcript Slide 1
Dr. Ron Lembke Sun sends UV? Infrared – show on spectrum CO2 collects in Troposphere Ozone O3 layer – absorbs ultraviolet radiation from sun Magnetic field of Earth creates radiation belts. These protect us from particles flying at Earth via solar wind (stream of ionized gases at 400 km/sec) Frank Capra, 1958 Find the Pie chart ~ 30% cooling “The Myth of The 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus,” Thomas C. Peterson, William M. Connelly, and John Fleck, American Meteorological Society, Sept. 2008, p. 1235 In the US, it’s a political issue, so there must be two sides? CO2 280 ppm for human history Last 250 years up to 384 ppm – where we are now Milankovich Cycles (pp 117-8): Earth’s orbit not circular, 100,000 year cycle Tilted axis shifts: 40,000 year cycle Plane of orbit relative to sun: 21,000 year cycle Seems unlikely 400 390 380 370 360 350 340 330 320 310 300 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Graph: Ron Lembke, 1/12/2010 2020 3.2 billion metric tons of carbon added to atmosphere annually from human activities Agriculture represents 25% Cars and transport? http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggccebro/chapter1.html Increased emissions from Both industrial and developing world Carbon Intensity by Region, 2001-2025 (Metric Tons of Carbon Equivalent per Million $1997) We’re at 384 ppm 450 ppm would be 2°C increase 550 ppm would lead to 3° C increase Used to be target Pests not killed by freezes Ice sheets melting faster than predicted Oceans more acidic than thought 350? Really hard Methane = 23x CO2 CO2 lasts for thousands of years 1. Yes, I think the globe has warmed a bit! Approximately 0.74 degree Celsius (+/- 0.18 degree) in the past 100 years. Yes, I think that man might be responsible for some part of that warming, although I’m not 100 percent convinced of how much The cost of generating power from wind has dropped by 60 percent since 1990, and power from the first solar cells in satellites is now 98.7 cheaper than when it was introduced. These technologies will be adopted by the world when and only when-- they make economic sense, not when we have to depend on countries like Russia and China to be virtuous. Sure, our government can help in the form of tax breaks and incentives, but capitalism is already well on its way to solving this problem itself. Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction. We must transform the way we use energy, and of course not only because of climate change... When I look around the world today, I see continued dependence on oil from vulnerable regions... and oil money going to leaders of countries hostile to us. Then there's accelerating development in China, India and other developing economies that are reliant on fossil fuels. News Corp. owns Fox. “Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats” and that “We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can’t afford the risk of inaction.” Rupert Murdoch, May 9, 2007 James Murdoch, heir apparent “Thanks to friendships with Al Gore and Bill Clinton, he has developed deep green instincts,” London Telegraph Wife Kathryn Hufschmid works for Clinton Climate Initiative Asked if climate change was a current or imminent threat, 83% of Britons agreed, with just 14% saying global warming poses no threat. Compared with August 2009, when the same question was asked, opinion remained steady An analysis of those who think climate change poses no threat reveals them to be predominantly men (70%) and about twice as likely to be over 65 and to have voted Conservative in 2010 than the general population. In 2007, the UN's science panel collated the work of thousands of scientists to conclude that the link between the emission of greenhouse gases by human activities and climate change was 90% certain. GE – Frank Mantero, Director Corporate Citizenship Programs Audited, like financial statements 40% of value based on reputation It’s not “giving” back – it’s a partnership Wal-Mart Sustainable Supply Chain “We’re making money at this”