Transcript All is not lost!

Climate Science
Sense and Nonsense
Keith Burrows
Australian Institute of Physics
Education Committee
“… the global warming theory itself is
based on just 16 years of warming –
from 1980 to 1996.”
Nothing could be further from the truth!
It is basic science that has been known for
almost 200 years!
Earth’s temperature is a balance between
energy coming IN from the Sun and going OUT as IR
Climate Science 101
 “The Earth should be a lot
colder than it is”
Joseph Fourier ~1820
Climate Science 101
 Tyndall found that water
vapour and carbon dioxide
in the air keep the Earth
warm and habitable.
John Tyndall ~ 1860
Climate Science 101
 Svante August Arrhenius figured it out in 1896. He
also found that doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere
would increase the Earth’s temperature around 5oC
Climate Science 101
 It’s a bit like a greenhouse...
 So it is called the “Greenhouse Effect”
 It keeps the Earth at a warm +15oC (average)
instead of a freezing –18oC
 Greenhouse Effect =
o
+33 C
ie. 40% increase
From 280 ppm pre-industrial to
400 ppm last year ie. 43% increase
Climate Science 101
So by how much will adding 40%
more CO2 in the atmosphere
add to the +33oC Greenhouse
Effect?
The denier view
560 ppm
560 ppm 2oC
BUT! This does NOT include
delayed and feedback effects.
Which are considerable!
280 ppm
Best guess is between 2oC and 4oC
Note that the figure is 1000 Gt of Carbon (not CO2)
It is equivalent to 3700 Gt of CO2
Limiting cumulative CO2 emissions to 2050 to
1,000 Gt CO2 yields a 25% probability of
warming exceeding 2oC
As 2000–2006 CO2 emissions were 234 Gt
CO2 , less
than half theCO
proven
economically
As 2000–2012
2 emissions were 500 Gt
recoverable
and
coal reserves
can still
CO2 ,oil,
lessgas
than
quarter
of the proven
be emitted
up to 2050recoverable
to achieve oil,
such
a goal.
economically
gas
and coal
reserves can still be emitted up to 2050 to
achieve such a goal.
From Meinshausen et.al.
Nature (April 2009)
2
0
1
4
A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years S.Marcott, et.al. 8 March 2013, Science
And the next 100 years?
Earth has not been this hot
for MILLIONS of years
Earth’s climate
July
2009
“Paul Blanchon's
team at the National
University of Mexico
has been studying
121,000 year old
coral reefs in the
Yucatan Peninsula,
formed during the
last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around 10 metres
higher than today. His findings suggest that at one point the sea
rose 3 metres within 50 to 100 years.”
Temperatures in that interglacial were only a degree or so warmer than the 20th C.
Earth’s climate – looking at the past
Pliocene
CO2 drops
from >400 ppm
to ~300 ppm
+3°C
Pliocene: Temperature around 3oC warmer, sea level around 20 – 30 m higher
http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/if-ice-melted-map
2012 – Record low September Arctic sea ice
Now about HALF what
it has been for tens of
thousands of years!
Climate extremes
 The RATE at which high temperature
records are being broken is INCREASING
“The latest estimate is that some 18.8 million km2 of northern
soils hold about 1,700 billion tonnes of organic carbon.
[Australia = 7.7 million km2 ]
That is about four times more than all the carbon emitted by
human activity in modern times and twice as much as is
present in the atmosphere now.”
International Permafrost Association
Is the Earth warming?
Satellites can measure the heat escaping
to space …
Low radiation
High radiation
Is the Earth warming?
 … and IT IS LESS THAN THAT COMING IN
from the Sun – by about ½ watt per sq metre.
 The Earth must warm until they balance!
Reflected visible radiation
Emitted IR radiation
Is the Earth warming?
 Half a watt per square metre! That’s about:
 20 times ALL the power being used by
humanity
 or 400,000 Hiroshima
bombs EVERY DAY
 This MUST heat
the Earth
Is the Earth warming?
Is the Earth warming? The Ocean
HOW many more manufacturing workers
must be sacked, thanks to green policies
that only pretend to stop global warming?
How many of the jobless won’t be able to
heat or cool their homes, with these same
mad policies helping to hike power prices
by 110 per cent in only five years?
“Minerals Council of Australia chief executive
Brendan Pearson said the 19 per cent recommendation
showed the CCA needed to be abolished. He said it
would destroy jobs and living standards and was the
equivalent of shutting down the electricity sector for
five years.”
What to do?
 By all means change the light bulbs (etc!)
 But the most important thing missing at
present is political will
 So we must TELL PEOPLE!
 Write to papers and politicians
 Join with others to spread the word
 AND – spread the GOOD NEWS!
(See the next presentation: And now the good news