Transcript Stabilisation of atmospheric carbon dioxide

NFFO and SRO
Features: • Scope limited to grid-connected electricity
generation
• Fixed-term, fixed-price contracts offered for
purchase of electricity
• Support only given to the renewable
technologies listed in the Order
• Scale (in terms of MW capacity) for each
technology restricted to figure quoted
in the Order
• Competitive bidding within each technology
band: lowest bids in terms of pence/kWh
are offered contracts
Contracted
Installed
NFFO and SRO
3500
3000
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1988
1990
1992
Contracted
1994
1996
1998
But in later years, difficulties
arose in the planning process,
particularly for wind farms and
waste incineration plant.
Completion rates then fell well
below 50% in both regions.
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1994
2000
Analysis for England and
Wales (upper graph) and
Scotland (lower) shows
that completion rates for
projects were initially very
high.
Installed
400
MW capacity
MW capacity
2500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Present UK arrangements: the Renewables
Obligation
 Licensed electricity suppliers must obtain a
specified percentage of their output from renewable
sources (steadily rising: will be 10% by 2010)
 Additional costs incurred may be passed on to
customers: there will be no subsidies
 Possible arrangements for trading of “Green
Credits”, or purchasing exemption from the
Obligation
 Existing NFFO and SRO contracts to be maintained.
The future for “immature” technologies is threatened:
electricity producers will inevitably go for the
cheapest renewable sources, at present on-shore
wind energy, land-fill gas or waste incineration.
Recent energy demands and future projections from
the UK Cabinet Office, 2002
domestic
industrial
transport
others
Note the
steady
increase in
total energy
demand,
and the very
rapid rise in
the transport
sector
80
energy consumption, mtoe
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Sources of supply for total UK primary
energy demand, from the UK Cabinet
Office, 2002
coal
oil
gas
nuclear
others
140
energy supply, mtoe
120
100
Note the
continuing
decline of
coal and the
rapid
expansion of
gas usage.
Is this wise? –
we are now a
net importer
of gas.
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
A revival of
nuclear power
is NOT
anticipated!
Stabilisation of atmospheric
carbon dioxide
Extracts from an
article by Aitken,
Billman and Bull in
Renewable Energy
World,
volume 7 number 6,
2004
Study covers total primary energy, not just electricity
Best current estimates on: • population growth
• GDP per person
• primary energy intensity
to predict growth in energy demand to 2100
Gaps between total energy demand and carbon fuel
consumption under a range of scenarios
Possible omission – no consideration given to
carbon sequestration processes from fossil fuels
Conclusion – no realistic chance of CO2
stabilisation at current levels of 350 ppm: need
zero carbon emissions from about 2045!
Scenario – stabilise CO2 at 550 ppm
But how damaging is that likely to be?
Stabilisation of CO2 at 550 ppm: required growth
of zero-carbon energy sources to 2030
Recent growth
rates in wind
energy markets
Recent growth
rates in the
photovoltaic
energy market
A possible
future
scenario of
energy
production
which would
stabilise
atmospheric
CO2 levels
at 550 ppm
by the year
2100
Roughly speaking, we need an extra 10% from
renewables each decade up to 2050, with
smaller increases thereafter; 80% in total by
the year 2100
Projections from the study are: • a rapid growth in biomass
• steady expansion of wind, solar and geothermal sources
• no significant expansion of nuclear power or hydro
• no significant contribution from marine energy