Transcript Document
In-Depth ASEAN 2015 Presented by Monsinee Keeratikrainon, Ph.D. February 26, 2015 About Author Positions held: Executive Advisor, McKansys (Thailand) Partner, Deloitte (Thailand and Southeast Asia) Country Director, Frost & Sullivan (Thailand) Delivery Head, Wipro Technologies Senior Consultant, True Corporation Product Manager, British Telecom Academic works: Guest Lecturer, Mahidol University College of Management (International MBA) P/T Lecturer, Assumption Univeristy, Faculty of Science and Technology Publication: “Development of Telecommunications Infrastructure and Policy in Thailand: A Case Study in Political Economic View of Telecommunications” (2010, Lambert Publishing House) “Strategy Cookbook” (2013, McKansys ‘s Copyrighted Handbook) Education: Master’s and Ph.D., majoring in Telecommunications , Temple University (USA) 1997-2001 Agenda Understanding AEC Opportunities in ASEAN Market AEC Readiness Preparation What will happen after AEC? Establishing ASEAN Trade Repositary (แหล่งเก็บรักษาข้ อมูล การค้ าอาเซียน) Integration of logistics and transportation systems 0% import & export tax No custom barriers ASEAN will become a single market and production hub Regional hub of production and sourcing Free movement of labors in 8 MRA categories ASEAN investors are free to invest in service sector (70%) Integration of capital markets Opportunity for Thailand Country Highlights Lao • Long-term risk from 1) corruption 2) relying on Hydropower 3) poverty and ethnic gaps • Agriculture accounts for 27.98% of GDP and employing 85% of the population • Besides trading and consumer business as the second largest GDP contributor, garment is heavily promoted Vietnam • Start 2013, inflation stabilized, real GDP growth recognized • Biggest sectors are food and beverage (many export to Cambodia and Lao) and also textiles (2.2 illion workers) • High growth in ICT & electronics, followed by automotive Phillipines • Electronics sector used to dominate ($21 billion value) but in 2016 BPO is expected to exceed at $26 billion. • World’s largest BPO center • Biggest export of education professionals Myanmar • Lowest BMI’s Business Envionroment Rating in ASEAN, second lowest in Asia after N. Korea • • • • • Prone to economic mismanagement due to leapfrogging (like Vietnam). No proper protocol to control is in place. Basic infrastructure, i.e. ICT and utilities are still limited and not stable. Gas and mineral are highest exported goods (56% of total) Initiated excitement from awarding offshore exploration licenses in oil & gas and building 3 major seaports with support from Japan, China, Thailand Big benefit to tourism sector, from 1million tourists in 2012 to 3 million in 2015. Indonesia • Manufacturing sector has been the largest contributor, followed by argriculture and consumer businesses • In 2013, Indonesia hits the highest growth record in the tourism industry. It contributed 8.4 percent to the economy. Malaysia • Electronics and electrical - more than half of industrial exports • Biggest palm oil exporter, second largest producer in ASEAN (about 6% of GDP) Cambodia • The next Vietnam, driven by agri, 38% GDP • Biggest manufacturing is garment, 16% GDP and 45% of manufacturing workers • Construction sector growth at 30% per annum • Tourists rise to hit 5 million in 2015, almost 20% growth for the past 5 years. • High short-term political risk, until CPP reform • Big income gap, need strong population control Singapore • • • 72% of GDP in service sector, i.e. financial, ICT Regional hub of MNCs, leading AEC initiatives 6 Remaining industrial sector is high-tech CLMV trade-off between politicalrisks and economic growth • • • CLMV is emerged as major “new export destination” for Thailand. Growth especially noted in Myanmar, Lao, and Cambodia (Average 7-7.5% GDP growth accordingly). Consumer goods, especially commodity products (rubber, refined oil, chemicals and materials) are increasingly exported with support from removal of tariff from AEC and more development of transport links. 7 ASEAN Growth Accelerators • • • Strong growth in consumption in almost all sectors, especially in emerging SEA countries, i.e. Indonesia and Vietnam. Promising opportunity in consumer business and imported goods Licensing and more investments in infrastructure driving economic growth Foreign Investment More Imported Goods Rise of Middle Class ASEAN Growth Accelerators Urbanization Young Workers 8 AEC Readiness Preparation ขั้นตอนการตรวจสุ ขภาพธุรกิจ (AEC CHECK3-UP STEPS ) pillars of dianogsis Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 3-Pillar Business Environment Diagnosis AEC-ready Organization Alignment AEC Disruptors Assessment Step 1 การวิเคราะห์ ความผันผวน (DISRUPTORS)3จาก AEC pillars of dianogsis เปิ ดเสรี การค้ าสินค้ า • ลดภาษีเหลือร้อยละ 0 ในปี 2553 • ยกเว้น CLMV ปี 2558 เปิ ดเสรี การค้ าบริ การ • เปิ ดเสรี บริ การเร่ งรัด 4 สาขา ได้แก่ ICT (e-ASEAN), สุ ขภาพ, ท่องที่ยว, โลจิสติกส์ เคลื่อนย้ ายแรงงานฝี มืออย่างเสรี เปิ ดเสรี เคลื่อนย้ ายเงินทุน เปิ ดเสรี การลงทุน • ลงนาม MRA วิชาชีพ 8 สาขา ได้แก่ วิศวกร พยาบาล สถาปนิก นักสารวจ แพทย์ ทันตแพทย์ นักบัญชี มัคคุเทศน์ • เชื่อมโยงตลาดทุน และพัฒนาตลาดพันธบัตร พร้อมมาตรการเปิ ดเสรี บญั ชีทุน • ส่ งเสริ มและคุม้ ครองการลงทุนระหว่างประเทศในอาเซียน ด้วยหลักการ National Treatment เพื่อสนับสนุน 3 pilliars of analysis Industry Factors Risk Opportunity Readiness Step 2 วิเคราะห์ สภาพแวดล้อมธุรกิจ BUSINESS ENVIORONMENT DIANOGSIS 3 pillars of dianogsis High Blue Ocean Red Ocean รุ ก 100% รุ กรับ 50:50 Opportunity Readiness Strike Zone Monitor Guarding รอจังหวะ รับ 100% High Low Risk Step 2 ความพร้ อม คือ จุดเปลีย่ นสู่ ความสาเร็จ Step 3 พัฒนาแผนธุรกิจให้ รองรับ AEC (AEC-READY ORGANIZATION) Step 3 COMMON ORGANIZATION ROADBLOCKS Step 3 ALIGNING ORGANIZATION WITH AEC ROADMAP The new quality management approach Sales/Marketing Customer Support Sales/Marketing PR/CSR HR VM Product R&D IT Operation Step 3 ALIGNING ORGANIZATION WITH AEC ROADMAP Brainstroming Exercise How does your industry impact from AEC disruptors? 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