Transcript Creating an Operations-Based Travel Forecast Tool for

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Creating an Operations-Based
Travel Forecast Tool for Small
Oregon Communities
10
TRB National Transportation Planning Applications Conference
May 20, 2009
Chris Maciejewski, P.E. – DKS Associates
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Presentation Outline
 Traditional
Planning Issues / Shortcomings
 Methodology
Overview
 Outcomes
 Applications
 Conclusions
in Transportation Plans
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Transportation Planning Issues
in Small Communities
State Highways
 Capacity
needs
dominate system
More lanes
 Couplet
 Bypass
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 Reduced
state funding
capacity [how is this
unique to small cities?]
Local Perspective
 Highway
congestion
20-30 days per year
 Limited
matching
funds for highways
 Looking
for solutions
to protect community
livability
Limitations of Traditional Methods
for Travel Forecasts
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Travel Demand Model Not
Available
Manual Methods Exist…
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Unconstrained
Trend-line?
Trend-line
Cumulative (TIS-style)
But They Cannot:
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Volume
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Congested
Corridor?
Consider operations
React to congestion
Evaluate multiple scenarios
Year
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An Integrated Tool Needed
to Meet All Study Requirements
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Assess Corridor Management
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Local Circulation Enhancement
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Relief Valves For Seasonal Congestion
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Balance Of Community Livability with Highway
Capacity
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New Elements Needed to
Strengthen Forecast Process
Weakness of Current Process
Tool Features
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Cannot dynamically
assess route changes
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Develops trip tables to
test circulation patterns
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Does not consider
effects of congestion
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Uses node delays for
assignments
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Cost effective scenario
testing
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Rapid Evaluation Of
Alternatives
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Key Methods Applied
 Parcel
Level Land Use
 Use
Of NAVTEQ Network
Files
 ITE Trip
 Simple
 HCM
Rates
Gravity Model
Node Delays
 Export
Network/Volumes To
Synchro/SimTraffic
Forecast
Process
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It Looks a Model and Talks Like a
Model, but it is a Forecast Tool
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Quality Review Process

Calibration Exceeded
Expectations
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R2 = 0.98, slope = 1.03
Reasonable turnmovements
Local circulation
patterns captured
Simple Gravity Model
Reasonable For Small
Communities
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Volume to Capacity Results for
Links and Nodes
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Other Useful Results
 Volume
Difference Plots
 Quickly summarize alternative effects
 Useful to communicate changes in traffic flows
 Conversion
of VISUM file to Synchro/Simtraffic
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Sample Application – Sisters, OR
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Forecasts Responded to Corridor Congestion
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Detailed Evaluation of Corridor Management Options
 Visual tools facilitated participation from all interested parties
 Led to City and ODOT consensus (first time in 20 years)
 Corridor solution with seasonal ITS, City arterial corridor
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Key Findings & Recommendations
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Ability to rapidly/accurately test network changes
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Graphic display tools help build consensus
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Corridor Management = Fewer Unfunded Highway
Projects
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Most appropriate application for:
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Small urban areas (less than 15,000 pop.)
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Significant growth forecasts
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Multiple scenarios need to be evaluated and tweaked for
consensus building
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What About Larger Urban Areas?
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Integrate Operations Into
a Travel Demand Model?
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Sub-area plans
Corridor plans
Circulation studies
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Utilize Travel Demand
Model Trip Tables
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Take Advantage of
Operations-Based
Assignments
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Quasi-Mesoscopic
Sub-Area Model
Forecast Process
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Next Steps
 Can
travel times in the forecast tool (including the
HCM node delays) be utilized for greenhouse gas
estimations?
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VMT (by speed bin) x Emissions Rate = Greenhouse Gas?
Valid for relative comparison of alternatives?
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Acknowledgements
 DKS
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Associates Staff
Carl Springer
Garth Appanaitis
Mat Dolata
Brad Coy
 Oregon
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Department of Transportation
Transportation Planning Analysis Unit (TPAU)