Transcript HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS AFTER THE WW2

European security
Conflicts in and around
Europe
Dr. Arūnas Molis
24 April, 2014
Tallinn
Military threats: main characteristics
 Potential or direct, internal or external but always
existential
 Intensity is decided by capabilities of potential
aggressor
 Geography matters – neighboring states threatens
more than distanced
 History of bilateral relations is important but
necessarily determining
Armed conflicts: global tendencies
Global peace index 2013
http://ww
w.yo
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e.co
m/w
atch
?v=
d3M
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Tf98
Major tendencies in the world
•Interstate wars have declined in number while
intrastate wars have increased in number.
•New wars are characterized by state failure and
a social transformation driven by globalization
and liberal economic forces.
•Ethnic
and
religious
conflict
are
more
characteristic of new wars than political ideology.
•Civilian
casualties
and
forced
human
displacement are dramatically increasing as a
proportion of all casualties in conflict.
Post Soviet space
Conflict in Crimea
http://www.thedailybeast.com/videos/2014/03/04/on-the-ground-in-ukraine.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/03/nato-suspend-co-operation-with-russia201435183125117503.html
Impact of Crimea conflict
on the energy security
• New route for South Stream
(shallower, shorter,
cheaper)
• The EU terminated
negotiations on South
Stream
• Black Sea off-shore
resources may be
redistributed
• Stalled production of
shale gas in Ukraine
• Export of US shale gas to
Europe – energy geopolitics
Who will win the race?
(this time – energy, not arms)
• ExxonMobil doubts
regarding cooperation with
Rosneft (shale gas techn.)
Is Russia reconstituting an empire?
 Building oil and gas cartels
 Supplying camp followers with gas, oil
and electricity at reduced prices
 Cultivating the system of virtual security
commitments (CSTO)
 Strengthening military presence in
Central Asia, South Caucasus, Eastern
Europe
Russian military expenditure
(as percent of GDP, in USD billions)
Year
Military expenditure
as % of GDP
In USD billions
1998
3.3
13.6
1999
3.4
14
2000
3.7
19.1
2001
4.1
21.2
2002
4.4
23.6
2003
4.3
25.1
2004
3.8
26.1
2005
3.7
28.5
2006
3.6
31.2
2007
3.5
35.4
2008
3.5
58.6
2009
4.3
53.3
2010
3.9
58.7
2011
DNA
71.9
Insights on what is happening..
 “The new times are already here. The interlude between
the cold wars (1989–2014) is over. Russia has assured
us it wants to restore her imperial glory. The interlude was
just an anomaly, a defeat, the results of which need to be
fixed”
 “we are facing a new reality, and a new kind of
confrontation between Russia and the West. It is no
longer about the clash of ideologies or the struggle between
systems and camps, as was the case during the Cold War”
 “Putin is trying to assert his right to interpret the global
rules of the game in such a way that Russia may violate
them with impunity. The Cold War, by contrast, was
marked by both sides’ adherence to the rules”
 “Putin isn’t just attempting to dismantle the post-Cold
War settlement; he is undermining the remaining
elements of the post-Yalta order”.
• “Ukraine crisis is proof that the Kremlin has begun to
experiment with the Putin’s Preventive Doctrine,
which seeks to ensure the survival of autocratic rule
by restoring militarism and a fortress mentality in
Russia”
• “By invoking the concepts of the “Russian World” and
“Russians as a divided nation,” Putin has begun to
tinker with the explosive revanchist ideas that
Europe attempted to lay to rest in the 20th century”
• “Putin could mean anything, or he could mean nothing
in particular. He wants you to keep guessing”.
• “Russia will not necessarily be invading other countries
and annexing their territory. Rather, the Kremlin is
aiming at creating a perpetual air of suspense and
uncertainty”.
On response..
• “When it comes to explaining Russia’s Ukrainian
adventurism, the West has attempted to hide
behind a wall of myths and hope its problems will just
go away”
• "When it comes to pushing back Russia's actions in
the former Soviet Union, there is no strategy and
there is no appetite.“
• “The Russian ruling elite has used globalization to
corrupt the West, and it will find the ways to use the
laundry machine it has created (with the assistance of
many Western helpers) to circumvent the
“financial containment.”
• “Every morning, I wake up wondering if this is the
day that Eastern-Europe is sold, again”
Latest exercise close to BS borders
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxX8SuUPC88
RF-BLR exercise “Zapad 2013”
 Officially 12,000 Russian troops and 10,400 Belarusian troops
participated. Real number of troops was closer to 70,000.
 Took part in both Russian and Belarusian territory, including the
Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, as well as a location near the RF
border with Norway.
 Unlike during Zapad 2009, the Zapad 2013 exercise did not
simulate a nuclear strike on Warsaw. The exercise was intended:

to test the efficacy of Russia’s military modernization efforts in its
Western Military District

To test Russia’s ability to rapidly reinforce the Western Military
District from less vital military districts (obilization of 20,000 troops)
 The Zapad exercises highlighted the growing military and political
partnership between Russia and Belarus
 NATO was the unstated adversary in the Zapad 2013
Increasing air space violations in the BS
Is the military threat in the
BSR real?
 “NATO is finally drawing up
plans for the defence of the
Baltic countries”
 “NATO military exercises
planned as Baltic States
hit panic button”
 “anything that might happen
to the Baltic states or Poland,
also happens to the other
Baltic Sea countries, the EU
and NATO”
 “Security of the Baltic
States poses a problem
first of all because the
Baltic region will always
remain the one of
strategic importance to
Russia”
 “region is peaceful with
relatively low military conflict
potential”
And finally, then impossible becomes a
reality..
only 14 percent
of the 905
interviewed
scholars
answered
affirmatively on
the eve of the
intervention
The poll was
conducted from 9
p.m., Feb. 24 to
11:59 p.m., Feb.
27. Russian forces
controlled the
Sevastopol airport
on Feb. 28
Rise of Extremist Terrorism






The Twin Towers 2001
Istmabul 2003
Madrid 2004
London 2005
British Airports 2006
Moscow, Minsk, Oslo, Liege and others in 2011
 The war in Afghanistan
 The war in Iraq
Conflicts in former Yugoslavia
Africa
Middle East
Afghanistan case: time frame
1955 – 1978
Cold war – USSR
military aid to
Afghanistan.
XIX century:
Tsarist Russia
versus UK
1978–present –
Afghan civil war
1978 Saur
revolution
1989 Soviet
withdrawal
1979 Soviet
intervention
2001 Operation
Enduring
Freedom
1996-2001
Taliban’s
rule
Questions?