Transcript Masood AhmadLead Water Resources Specialist

Project Preparation, and
Appraisal in the Water Sector –
Pakistan Punjab Barrages
Improvement Project
Masood Ahmad
Lead Water Resources Specialist
ADFD/WB Project Preparation and Appraisal Workshop Abu Dhabi, April 2010
Pakistan Punjab Barrages Improvement Project
 Project to rehabilitate Jinnah Barrage on the Indus River (see Map for
Location)
 The Barrage was constructed in 1946
 Whole of the Indus river flow passes through the barrage
 Water is diverted to one canal namely the Thal Canal
 Thal Canal Coves are area of about 2.1 million acres - in Thal desert
 Direct beneficiaries of Barrage/Thal canal are four districts Mianwali,
Khushab, Bhakkar, Layyah and Muzafargharh districts
 Total popluation about 5 million people dependent of water supplies for
from the canal
 About 700,000 farm families derive their livelihood directly and indirectly
from irrigation
 The canal is the source of water for all uses, irrigation, drinking, domestic,
municipal and industrial water use.
 Bararge is 3,781 Feet long, 56 gated bays 60 feet each
 Two undersluices on left and right side with seven bays each, Navigation lock,
Fish ladders etc.
 A 95 MW power plant is being installed on the barrage would be completed
in 2 years
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Jinnah
Barrage
Problems of the Barrage and Project Design
 Barrage is unsafe and partial or full failure is likely
 It is being undermined as the river bed on the downstream side has
been lowered
 The gates malfunction
 Emergency repairs have been done – but the structure needs major
revamping
 The project would construct a weir done stream to check erosion of
the river bed close to the barrage
 All gates would be repaired, and motorized and improved with
monitoring system
 The project would deal with social and environmental issues
 The project is to be implemented on an operational system, water
supplies cannot be interrupted
 Interruption of water supply for to the project area and downstream
would be economic and social crises for the country
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Proposed Project
 Objectives: Strengthen and modernize Jinnah
Bararage to enable un-interrupted supply of water
to2.1 m a; and build capacity of IPD in improved water
resources and irrigation management
 5 million people in 5 districts, about 600,000 farm
families direct beneficiaries of Jinnah Rehabilitation
 Component A: Rehabilitation and Modernization of
Jinnah Barrage (US$112 million)
 A1, A2 Civil and mechanical works ($94 m)
 A3 , Social Development and Environmental Management
plans (US$9 million)
• Water Supply Schemes, Seed distribution, social development
initiatives
 A4 Construction Supervision and Project Management
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Proposed Project
 Component B: Improvement and modernization
of the Irrigation and Water Management Systems
(US$15 million)
 B1.1 Improvement and Water Management ,
simulation models, decision support and water
accounting systems etc. (US$5 million)
 B1.2 Modernization of equipment for water
management (US$4 million)
 B2. Future Project Preparation (US$6 million)
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Proposed Project-- Benefits
 Component C: M&E of progress, impact and
supervision of SADP and EMP Implementation
(US$2.5 million)
 Component D: Support for project implementation,
technical assistance and training (US$6.5 million)
 IDC and Upfront Fee US$19 million
 Benefits are large, ERR 21%, continued supply for
2.1 million acres, 5 districts, 5 million people and
for 96 MW power plant, road, utility crossing etc.
 Improved water resources management in the
province
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Risks, Safeguard Issues Environment, Social
 Project is rated “Substantial” risk


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
Sheer size of construction on operational system
Possible Procurement issues and country environment
Mainly due to possible Interruption to water supplies
Accidents, breaching of coffer dam etc.
Reputational risks
 Upgraded to Category “A”
 Environment: Positive impact in the long runs, issues
during construction which can be mitigated through the
proposed EMP
• Monitoring of Indus blind Dolphins by wildlife institute (best
estimate is 2 between Jinnah and Chashma barrge)
 Social: Positive in the long run, Issue: interruption to
supplies during construction -- SDAP to address
issues Water supply schemes, seed distr. Part, health
unit, girls school
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Construction Planning and
Operation of the System During Construction
 Extensive planning for construction
 System of coffer dams and timing to ensure supplies downstream
----250,000 cusecs for meeting downstream demands –fisheries
and aquatic life
 Sequencing to ensure continued supplies to Thal canal
 Extreme care to supply water for Mohajir Branch of Thal canal
which has saline groundwater and people depend on canal water
for drinking water.
 Provision of feeder canal with 1,500 cusecs
 Contingency plans in case of unforeseen situation, SDAP and
EMP
 Water supply schemes -rehab and construction
 Distribution of seed
 Hospitals, schools, etc. in the project area
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Construction Planning
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Construction Planning
Jan-Feb
complete
coffer dam
January
during canal
closure
March-May
construction
Proposed CofferMarch
Dam Arrangement
–May
Nov 30
Complete
coffer dam
FLOW
U/S RIGHT GUIDE BANK
For Subsidaryconstruction
Weir at 600 Feet
CL
1 Year
BARRAGE
2 Year
D
SILT
EXCLUDER
56 55
54
50
LEFT
RIGHT DIVDE WALL
B
THAL CANAL
381
53 52 51
Right Divide Wall
LEFT DIVDE WALL
RIGHT
UNDER
SLUICES
B
49 48
47
46
45 44
43 42 41
40
39 38
37
36 35
34
33 32
31 30
29 28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21 20
19 18
17
16
15 14
13
12 11 10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
E
C
A
A
D/S RIGHT GUIDE BANK
N.S
.L
N.S.L
Oct 15 start
construction of
coffer dam
Carry out
construction
December to May
Legend:
1st Year Coffer dam Arrangement
2nd Year Coffer dam Arrangement
Coffer dam to be constructed in left under sluices every year.
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Communication Strategy
 To keep people informed of the construction
schedule and possible implications of
operation of the system – allow to make them
plans
 To get feedback from people and use best
possible schedule to minimize negative affects
 Use of media, existing organizational structure
of IPD
 Special unit under PMO to for communication
during construction
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GOVERNMENT OF PUNJAB
CHART -I
PROJECT STEERING
COMMITTEE
Secretary (Irrigation & Power)
Secretary (Finance)
Secretary (Environment)
Secretary (Public Health)
Secretary (Forestry & Wildlife)
Chief Executive Officer, PRSP
Member, Infrastructure
Development, P&D Department
Head, PMO (Secretary of PSC)
CHAIRMAN P & D
SECRETARY
IRRIGATION & POWER
Punjab Barrages Monitoring
and Implementation Unit
Component B1
FINANCE UNIT
Director
Finance and Administration
(Jinnah)
Manager
(Administration)
Deputy Director
(Finance)
System Analyst
Accounts Officer
(Jinnah)
HEAD, PMO
Program Coordinator
Barrages Review Cell, P&D
Department
Deputy Program Coordinator
Barrages Review Cell, P&D
Department
PROCUREMENT UNIT
Director
Procurement & Contract
Administration
(Jinnah)
Deputy Director
(Procurement)
Deputy Director
(Contracts)
Deputy Director
(M&E)
Deputy Director
(Claims)
(Jinnah)
ENGINEERING UNIT
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL
UNIT
Director Technical/Deputy
Project Director
Director Mechanical
(Jinnah)
Director
Social & Environment
(Jinnah)
Deputy Director
Technical
Assistant Director
Technical
Design Engineer
QAC Engineer
(Jinnah)
Deputy Director
Mechanical
Deputy Director
Electrical
Assist. Director
Mechanical
Assist. Director
Electrical
(Jinnah)
Deputy Director
Environment
Deputy Director
Sociology
(Jinnah)
Deputy Director
Communication
Deputy Director
Development
Assistance /
Resettlement
(Jinnah)
Economic Analysis
Estimates of Financial and Economic costs
 Estimates of cost (financial cost) -- September 2009
prices

Construction costs
• estimates of quantities, use of unit rates, physical contingencies,
taxes, price escalation, and interest during construction

Supervision costs

Monitoring and evaluation costs

Cost of social action plan, cost of environmental
management etc,
 Estimates of economic cost

Taxes and duties are taken out

Price contingencies are taken out
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Economic Analysis
Estimates of Benefits
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Quantified benefits and
Unquantified benefits
Quantified benefits
Major benefits are from irrigated agriculture
The deterioration of Jinnah Barrage would lead to reduced water
and untimely supplies to the Thal canal covering some 2.1 million
acres of irrigated area
The current cropping intensity of 103 percent would gradually
decrease to 87% over a period of ten years -- without Project
Scenario
With the project the area would get full supplies and the cropping
intensity would increase to 113 percent
Crop production in without and with project scenarios is valued
in economic prices of each commodity and by products.
Crop budgets are prepared for each crop grown in the area
A farm level model is developed for a typical cropping pattern
and input outputs for a 5 ha farm
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Economic Analysis
Estimates of Benefits
 Unquantified benefits
 Avoided erosion of land and safety of infrastructure on it
 The power plant on the Barrage of 96 Mw would have reduced
energy production
 Catastrophic scenario
 If the barrage partially or fully collapses it would take about 5
years to reconstruct
 The reconstruction cost would be about US$500 million if all
bays do not collapse
 Estimated crop loss would be about US$87 million per year
 This would result in economic and social crisis for the country
 ERR is estimated about 21.7%
 NPV is US$80 million in economic terms at 12% discount rate
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Sensitivity Analysis
•
Economic Analysis
ERR
Response
%
21.7
19.3
18.8
16.7
Description
a. Base Case
b. Costs increase by 20%
c. Benefits Decrease by 20%
d. Combination of both (b&c)
Financial Analysis
FRR
Response
%
17.7
15.6
15.2
13.4
Description
a. Base Case
b. Costs increase by 20%
c. Benefits Decrease by 20%
d. Combination of both (b&c)
a.
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