Transcript Presentation name

The Great Recession and its
Lasting Impacts
Mark A. Berreth, Regional Economist, LMEA
Sept. 28, 2011
1
Job growth
Washington nonagricultural employment
U.S. nonagricultural employment (in thousands)
Seasonally adjusted
3,000,000
138,000
2,925,000
136,000
2,850,000
134,000
2,775,000
132,000
2,700,000
130,000
2,625,000
128,000
01
2
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
11
Employment growth for WA
Change in employment
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
Washington
3-month average
3
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
-10,000
Employment growth by industry
in WA
Month-over-month change by industry
Seasonally adjusted
July 2011 to August 2011
Total nonfarm
Manufacturing
Aerospace product and parts manufacturing
Education and health services
Information
Construction
Retail trade
Other services
Professional and business services
Mining and logging
Transportation, warehousing and utilities
Government
Leisure and hospitality
Wholesale trade
Financial activities
4
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3,800
3,500
600
2,000
1,800
1,400
400
400
100
0
-100
-400
-1,300
-1,600
-2,400
Industry employment in WA
Year-over-year change by industry
Seasonally adjusted
August 2010 to August 2011
Total nonfarm
Professional and business services
Manufacturing
Aerospace product and parts
manufacturing
Education and health services
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
Transportation, warehousing and utilities
Wholesale trade
Information
Other services
Construction
Mining and logging
Financial activities
Government
5
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
46,600
13,400
12,200
7,500
7,500
5,900
4,700
4,000
2,800
2,100
1,800
900
100
-2,200
-6,600
Agricultural employment in WA
Total covered agriculture employment
12-month moving average, Washington state
104,000
104,000
100,000
100,000
96,000
96,000
92,000
92,000
88,000
88,000
84,000
84,000
00
6
01
02
03
04
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA
05
06
07
08
09
10
Slow GDP growth
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally adjusted, annual rate, $ in billions
16,000
16,000
14,000
14,000
12,000
12,000
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
98
7
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis
09
10
11
Private investment spending lags
consumer spending
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Seasonally adjusted, annual rate, billions $
12,000
12,000
10,000
10,000
8,000
8,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
4,000
2,000
2,000
0
0
55
8
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Economic Analysis
05
10
Consumer confidence
U.S. Consumer Confidence
Aug. 2011 = 44.5, seasonally adjusted, 1985=100
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
85
9
90
95
00
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, The Conference Board
05
10
Unemployment rate
11.0
Unemployment rate
10.0
Washington
9.0
U.S.
8.0
Seattle
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
10
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar-11
Sep-10
Mar-10
Sep-09
Mar-09
Sep-08
Mar-08
Sep-07
Mar-07
Sep-06
3.0
Top 10 states by lowest July 2011
unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
11
State
North Dakota
Nebraska
South Dakota
New Hampshire
Oklahoma
Vermont
Wyoming
Iowa
Hawaii
Virginia
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau
Rate
3.3%
4.1%
4.7%
5.2%
5.5%
5.7%
5.8%
6.0%
6.1%
6.1%
Bottom 10 states by July 2011
unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted
12
Rank
State
Rate
42
42
44
45
46
46
48
48
50
51
Georgia
North Carolina
Mississippi
Florida
District of Columbia
Rhode Island
Michigan
South Carolina
California
Nevada
10.1%
10.1%
10.4%
10.7%
10.8%
10.8%
10.9%
10.9%
12.0%
12.9%
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau
Third decile of states by
unemployment rate
Rank
13
State
Rate
31
Ohio
9.0%
32
Connecticut
9.1%
33
Washington
9.3%
34
Arizona
9.4%
34
Idaho
9.4%
36
Illinois
9.5%
36
Kentucky
9.5%
36
New Jersey
9.5%
36
Oregon
9.5%
40
Tennessee
9.8%
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment rates
by education level, in U.S.
For ages 25 and up
College grads
HS diploma, no college
16
16
12
12
8
8
4
4
0
0
01
14
Less than bachelor's degree
Less than HS diploma
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
09
10
11
Washington population educational
attainment, 2009
Less than high school diploma
10.3%
High school graduate
24.0%
Some college or associates degree
34.6%
Bachelors degree
19.9%
Graduate or professional degree
11.1%
0%
15
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau
Youth unemployment rates in U.S.
Men & women of all ages compared to
youths aged 16-19 years
28%
24%
28%
Youths: 16-19 years
24%
20%
20%
16%
16%
All working-age men
12%
12%
8%
All working-age women
4%
4%
2008
16
8%
09
10
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Alternative measures of
labor underutilization
Unemployed+marginally attached+part-time
for economic reasons
Unemployed + marginally attached
Unemployed + discouraged workers
Unemployment rate: Age 16+
17.5%
(Seasonally adjusted)
15%
12.5%
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
2007
17
08
09
10
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Jobs in goods-producing sectors
in WA
Service-providing industry
Goods-producing industry
2,475,000
520,000
500,000
2,400,000
480,000
2,325,000
460,000
440,000
2,250,000
420,000
2,175,000
400,000
2001
18
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
09
10
11
Jobs in goods-producing sectors
in WA
Service-providing industry
Goods-producing industry
105%
105%
As a percent of December 2007 employment
Dec. 2007 = 100%
100%
95%
95%
90%
90%
85%
85%
80%
80%
75%
75%
2001
19
100%
02
03
04
05
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA
06
07
08
09
10
11
Employment over time
Washington:
Construction
Manufacturing
U.S.:
Construction
Manufacturing
140%
140%
As a percent of December 2007 employment
Dec. 2007 = 100%
120%
120%
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
2001
20
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
09
10
11
No recovery in home prices
Zillow Housing Index
Washington
Nevada
140%
140%
Dec. 2007 = 100%
120%
120%
100%
100%
80%
80%
60%
60%
40%
40%
2001 02
21
Arizona
California
03
04
05
06
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Zillow
07
08
09
10
11
22
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau
2010 Quarter 4
2009 Quarter 4
2008 Quarter 4
2007 Quarter 4
2006 Quarter 4
2005 Quarter 4
2004 Quarter 4
2003 Quarter 4
2002 Quarter 4
2001 Quarter 4
2000 Quarter 4
1999 Quarter 4
1998 Quarter 4
1997 Quarter 4
1996 Quarter 4
1995 Quarter 4
1994 Quarter 4
1993 Quarter 4
1992 Quarter 4
130.00
120.00
110.00
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
50.00
1991 Quarter 4
1990 Quarter 4
New hires for youths drop faster
Fourth-quarter new hires
Total
Age 65+
Age 19-21
Dec. 2007 = 100%
Hiring takes place throughout
the economy
New hires and beginning of fourth-quarter
employment, selected industries,
2008, 2009, 2010
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
23
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2008 Q4 beginning of qtr employment
2009 Q4 beginning of qtr employment
2010 Q4 beginning of qtr employment
2008 Q4 accessions
2009 Q4 accessions
2010 Q4 accessions
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, U.S. Census Bureau
Job creation and destruction
in WA
24
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor force participation rate
remains near 25 year low
U.S. labor force participation rate
Washington state labor force participation rate
Seasonally adjusted, %
72.5
72.5
70.0
70.0
67.5
67.5
65.0
65.0
62.5
62.5
60.0
60.0
57.5
57.5
65
25
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
05
10
Older workers working longer, pushing up
their labor force participation rate
U.S. labor force participation rate: 55 years & over
U.S. labor force participation rate: 25-54 years
U.S. labor force participation rate: 16 - 24 years
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
75
26
80
85
90
95
00
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
05
10
Washington’s employment to population
ratio mirrors the nation
U.S. employment-population ratio
WA employment-population ratio
Seasonally adjusted, %
66
66
64
64
62
62
60
60
58
58
01
27
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
09
10
11
Employment to population ratios
have yet to recover
Employment-population ratio: men
Employment-population ratio: women
Seasonally adjusted, %
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
65
28
70
75
80
85
90
95
00
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA, Bureau of Labor Statistics
05
10
Top ten occupational groups by
projected annual openings, 2014-2010
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
29
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA,
$60.00
$50.00
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$0.00
Other occupational group by projected
annual openings, 2014-2019
7000
6000
$45.00
$40.00
$35.00
5000
$30.00
4000
$25.00
3000
$20.00
2000
$15.00
$10.00
1000
0
30
Source: Employment Security Department/LMEA,
$5.00
$0.00
Questions?
31