Transcript Presentation name

State of Regional Economy
Benton-Franklin Region
City of Prosser
Prosser Economic Development Association
Ajša Suljić-Regional Labor Economist
Employment Security Department
February 7th , 2013
1
U.S. and state unemployment
rates in downward trend,
while local rate is trending up
11%
Recession Dec'07-Jun'09
7%
Prosser City Avg Annual UI Rate
2009----------------------------7.2%
2010----------------------------8.0%
2011----------------------------8.5%
5%
Source: U.S. Census ACS estimates
Source: WA Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic/LAUS -Seasonally Adjusted UI Rate
2
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
3%
Jun-08
Kennewick-Richland-Pasco MSA
Washington
U.S.
Dec-07
Unemployment rate
9%
Local economic growth stalls in 2012,
while U.S. and state are in slow recovery
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA vs Washington & U.S.
Employment (Index, Dec 2007 = 100)
115
Recession Dec'07-Jun'09
Nonfarm employment
110
105
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA
WA
U.S.
100
Source: WA Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic/CES
3
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
90
Dec-07
95
Declining employment
Employment
1.30
Prosser City
1.25
Benton-Franklin Counties
Washington State
1.20
1.15
1.10
1.05
1.00
0.95
0.90
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: WA Employment Security Dep, U.S. Census LED OnTheMap 2012
4
2008
2009
2010
Service based economy
Industry Share of Total Employment
All Other
Industries
11%
Accommodation &
Food Services
7%
Average Annual Wage 2011
Public
Administration
22%
Retail Trade
9%
Manufacturing
14%
Agriculture
10%
Educational
Services
13%
5
Health Care and
Social Assistance
14%
$ 41,733
OTY
5Y AAGrowth
1.8%
2.3%
120,000
14,000
112,000
12,500
104,000
11,000
96,000
9,500
88,000
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA
8,000
Total covered employment
80,000
Farm employment
Source: WA Employment Security Department/QCEW/CES/Ag Estimates 2012
6
6,500
Total covered employment
Farm employment
Agriculture added the most jobs
in the Region
Decreasing number of workers
with bachelor’s degree or higher
Jobs by Workers Educational Attainment
Educational attainment not available
(workers aged 29 or younger)
2009
2010
Bachelor's degree or advanced degree
Some college or Associate degree
High school or equivalent, no college
Less than high school
0%
7
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Prosser worker demographics
Jobs by Worker Age
2010
21.8%
Change
Age 29 or younger
2002
23.6%
Age 30 to 54
62.0%
57.4%
-4.6%
Age 55 or older
14.4%
20.8%
6.4%
Jobs by Earnings
2010
27.5%
Change
$1,250 per month or less
2002
32.5%
$1,251 to $3,333 per month
45.8%
36.6%
-9.2%
More than $3,333 per month
21.7%
35.8%
14.1%
Jobs by Worker Sex
2010
44.2%
Change
Male
2009
45.1%
Female
54.9%
55.8%
0.9%
8
-1.8%
-5.0%
-0.9%
Growth similar to the Region
Population Trend
6,000
290,000
5,500
260,000
5,000
230,000
4,500
200,000
4,000
170,000
3,500
Prosser City
Benton-Franklin Region
140,000
110,000
2,500
80,000
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
3,000
Source: WA Office of Financial Management 2012 Estimates , U.S Census Bureau 2011 Estimates
9
One of the youngest cities
in Benton County
Median Age
45
40
35
32.8
30
25
20
2016-2021
15
10
2006-2011
13%
2011-2016
7.6%
5
0
Source: WA Employment Security Department, U.S. Census-ACS estimates 2011
10
6.6%
Educational attainment below
national, state and county level
Educational Attainment:
Percent high school graduate or higher
120%
100%
80.9%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Source: WA Employment Security Department, U.S. Census ACS estimates 2011
11
Lowest household income
in the county
Median Household Income
$90,000
$75,000
$60,000
$47,357
$45,000
$30,000
$15,000
$-
Source: WA State Employment Security Department, U.S. Census- ACS estimates 2011
12
How long will it take to recover
that is the question?
1.10
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA
Employment Index (1.00= Peak)
1.05
Employment
1.00
0.95
1994-1997
2004-2006
2011-2012
0.90
0.85
1
13
25
37
Months
Source: Washington State LMEA, BLS-CES estimates
13
49
61
Outlook
▶
Employment to stabilize in 2013
▶
Population growth will have an effect on local
economic growth
▶
Industries that will be leading growth
▶ Healthcare
▶ Educational services
▶ Food manufacturing
14
Thank You
Ajša Suljić
Regional Labor Economist
[email protected]
509-734-5928
esd.wa.gov/employmentdata
15
19,000
85,000
18,000
80,000
17,000
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA
Total Private
Total Government
Source: WA Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic/CES-SA Employment
16
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
16,000
Jun-08
75,000
Public sector employment
90,000
Dec-07
Private sector employment
Private and public sectors growth similar
through Q3 ‘11, while 2012 is different
18,000
9,500
17,250
9,000
16,500
Leisure\Hospitality
10,000
8,500
15,750
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA
Leisure\Hospitality
Trade\Transportation\Utilities
Source: WA Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic/CES-SA Employment
17
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
15,000
Dec-07
8,000
Trade\Transportation\Utilities
Industries related to discretionary
spending have stabilized
Construction rebounding from 2011 decline,
while manufacturing stable
8,000
8,000
7,000
7,000
6,000
6,000
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA
Construction
Manufacturing
Source: WA Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic/CES- SA Employment
18
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
5,000
Dec-07
5,000
Manufacturing
Construction
Recession Dec '07-Jun '09
30,000
12,000
25,000
11,000
Beginning of Hanford Layoffs
20,000
10,000
Kennewick-Pasco-Richland MSA
Professional\Business Services
Private Education\Healthcare
19
Source: WA Employment Security Department/LMEA; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistic/CES-SA Employment
Dec-12
Jun-12
Dec-11
Jun-11
Dec-10
Jun-10
Dec-09
Jun-09
Dec-08
Jun-08
9,000
Dec-07
15,000
Private Education\Healthcare
Professional\Business
Education\healthcare stable and growing,
while professional\business declining