Transcript Slide 1

Demographics And Higher
Education In Minnesota
Presentation to Citizens League
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Mn Dept of Administration
May 2004
Minnesota Ranks Highly In
Education Attainment
•
Ranks 11th highest in percent age 25 and older with at
least a bachelors degree
•
Ranks 2nd lowest in percent age 25 and older with less
than high school diploma
•
•
Educational attainment improved substantially in the 90s
•
Migration also added people with levels of education
attainment
Part of the reason for Minnesota’s high rank is the state’s
low proportion of minority people
Percent Of Population 25+
Educational Attainment Rises
35%
30%
25%
20%
27.4%
24.8%
19.6%
24.4%
20.3%
21.8%
17.6%
15%
1990
2000
12.1%
10%
5%
0%
US Less
Than High
School
US
Bachelors
Degree or
More
Mn Less
Than High
School
Mn
Bachelors
Degree or
More
Minnesota Education Attainment
Rose Sharply In The 90s
Graduate or Prof Degree
51.8%
Bachelor's Degree
40.3%
Associate Degree
2.5%
Some College
44.1%
High School
Less Than HighSchool
-0.1%
-22.0%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Percent Change 90-00 In Population 25+
2000 Census
Net Migration To Minnesota By Educational
Attainment For People Age 25 And Older
9,700
Advanced Degree
14,900
Bachelors Degree
Some College
9,500
10,000
High School
Less than High
School
16,400
0
00 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000 ,000
0
,
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 Census PUMS 5%
Increased Diversity
Will Affect Higher Education
Minnesota’s High Rank Partially
Due To Lack Of Diversity
• Minnesota’s minority population is growing
rapidly, especially in younger ages
• One reason for Minnesota’s high rank in
education attainment is its lack of racial
and ethnic diversity
• A major challenge facing Minnesota higher
education is increasing participation of
minority students
Growth In Minority Population Accounted
For More Than 100% Of Minnesota’s
Increase In 18-24 Year Olds 1990-2000
500,000
450,000
470,434
442,809
400,000
350,000
300,000
1990
2000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
72,220
31,916
50,000
0
Total
1990 & 2000 Census
Minority
Non-English Speaking Students:
While Minneapolis and St. Paul have the largest numbers, some
smaller districts also have substantial proportions
State 93-94
State 00-01
State 01-02
State 02-03
State 03-04
Worthington
Sleepy Eye
St. Paul
St. James
Pelican Rapids
Mountain Lake
Minneapolis
Madelia
Butterfield
Brooklyn Center
0%
3.0%
7.0%
8.0%
8.8%
9.3%
26.9%
26.2%
25.8%
25.1%
29.7%
27.9%
27.7%
32.8%
10%
20%
30%
Percent of Students in 2003-04
Source: Mn Dept of Education data
38.5%
40.9%
40%
50%
Education Attainment Population
25 To 34
31.7%
% Bachelors
or more
34.5%
MnStd to US Minority
Population
Mn
27.5%
US
11.7%
% less than
High School
7.6%
16.1%
0%
2000 Census
10%
20%
30%
40%
Age 25 to 34 Percent With
Bachelors Degree or More
55.0%
Asian, Not Hisp
46.1%
Am Indian, Not
Hisp
10.7%
7.2%
15.3%
15.7%
Black, Not Hisp
32.5%
36.7%
White Not Hisp
10.4%
12.9%
Latino
27.5%
Total
34.5%
0%
2000 Census
United States
Minnesota
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Age 25 to 34 Percent With Less
Than High School Diploma
10.2%
Asian, Not Hisp
15.9%
Am Indian, Not
Hisp
20.6%
22.6%
18.7%
18.6%
Black, Not Hisp
United States
Minnesota
9.0%
White Not Hisp
4.3%
43.6%
42.2%
Latino
16.1%
Total
7.6%
0%
2000 Census
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Percent Of Population 18 To 24
Enrolled In Higher Education
Total
36%
Latino
13%
Asian
41%
American Indian
21%
Black
22%
White
38%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percent Enrolled In Higher Education
2000 Census PUMS 5%
40%
45%
Distribution Of The Population
Will Influence The Delivery
Of Education Services
New Suburbs Are Receiving Most
Of The Growth
• Minnesota is growing faster than its neighboring
•
•
states
Most growth is in the growth donut around the
Twin Cities
Many areas of rural Minnesota have
experienced long term population loss and aging
• Political power in the legislature is increasingly
reflecting the shifts
Population Change 1920 To 2000
Source U.S. Census
Lost Population
Gained Population
Projected change in population 15 to 24
2000 to 2010
State: +63,555
-2,959 to -60
-60 to 300
300 to 9,343
Higher Education Critical
To Future Economic Growth
The Level of Future Economic Growth Will
Depend Ever More On A Highly Productive
Labor Force
• Slower growth of the labor force will place more
importance on increasing per worker productivity
• Minnesota’s labor force growth will depend
largely on continued activity of older workers
and migration to the state
• Training of young Minnesotan’s, retraining of
older workers and training and certifications of
migrants will be key roles of education
Total Annual Earnings, Currently Employed
Minnesotans Age 25 to 54
$57,000
Advanced Degree
$46,000
Masters Degree
$38,000
Bachelors Degree
$30,000
Some College
$26,000
High School Diploma
2000 Census PUMS 5%
$8
0,
00
0
$7
0,
00
0
$6
0,
00
0
$5
0,
00
0
$4
0,
00
0
$3
0,
00
0
$2
0,
00
0
$20,000
$1
0,
00
0
$0
Less Than High
School
Projections for 2010—Labor Force
• Labor force will increase to a range of 2.9 mil
and 3.1 mil, increases of between 7% and 16%.
• Uncertainty about labor force growth results from
uncertainty about migration and labor force
participation, especially over 60.
• Most growth will be among 45 to 64 (increase of
32% to 39%). Age 24 to 44 will see a decline as
much as 10%.
Projected Labor Force--2003
4000000
3500000
Census
Series A
Series B
Series C
Series D
3000000
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
State Demographer projections
Higher Education Workforce
Is Also Aging
Higher Education Workforce Is Also
Aging
• Corresponds to overall aging of the workforce
and especially the government workforce
• Many instructors, administrators, and other
workers are in their 40s and 50s
• Will higher education also face a retirement
boom in the next decade?
Minnesota Post Secondary Teachers
3500
3100 3000
3000
3000
2500
2300
2500
2700
2900
2200
2000
1700
1500
1100
800
1000
500
0
Under 25-29
25
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
Age Group
2000 Census PUMS 5%
55-59
60-64
65-69
70+
Median Age Of Minnesota Post
Secondary Teachers
43
Total
45
State Government
36
Private For-Profit
Private Not-forProfit
45
0
2000 Census, PUMS 5%
10
20
30
40
50
Trends In College Age
Population And Enrollment
Aging Population And Enrollments
• Traditional college age population will
increase this decade then level off
• K-12 enrollments have already begun to
decline
• Extrapolated future enrollment shows little
change over the next 25 years
• Most future growth will be in middle-aged
to older population likely changing the
ordering of budget and society priorities
Minnesota Population Age 18-24
600,000
558,498
500,000
535,332
442,809
433,382
507,083
529,325
470,434
400,000
300,000
297,071 284,222
200,000
100,000
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
Census & State Demographer projection
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Minnesota Public School Enrollments Have
Peaked: Declines Not Expected To Be
Sharp
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
Projections by MnDCFL
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
19
74
500
Though People Of Many Ages Groups Are
Enrolled In Higher Ed, Most Are 18 to 24
Percent Enrolled In Higher
Education
40%
35.8%
35%
30%
25%
20%
13.4%
15%
10%
7.8%
4.8%
5%
3.9%
3.1%
2.3%
0.9%
0.6%
0.4%
0.3%
Age
Census 2000 PUMS 5%
70
+
9
65
-6
4
60
-6
9
55
-5
4
50
-5
9
45
-4
4
40
-4
9
35
-3
4
30
-3
9
25
-2
18
-2
4
0%
Interstate Migration Also Affects Enrollments
10,263
Grad/Prof
15,542
Out Mig
In Mig
46,441
College
Undergrad
45,169
0
10,000
2000 Census PUMS 5%
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Extrapolated Higher Education
Enrollment For Minnesota
400,000
350,000
300,000
321,000
329,000
329,000
326,000
328,000
335,000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
299,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000
Extrapolated from 2000 Census enrollment by 5 year age group to state demographer projections
Impact Of Aging
On Higher Education
Aging Will Have A Profound Impact
On Society
• Most future growth will be in middle-aged to
older population
• Overwhelming growth in the older population will
likely change the order of budget and society
priorities
• Aging also offers some opportunities for higher
education—training for new careers, training and
certifying volunteers, learning for fun
Projected Change 2000 to 2030 By
Age Group In Minnesota
160
134.9 130.6
Percent Change
140
120
111
99.5
100
89.7
90.8
80
60
47.9
40
20
13
10.1 6.7
15.9 18.5
5.1
20.1
12
10.8
0.4
1.6
0
0-4 5-9 10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85+
14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84
Age Group
Source: State Demographer projection
Ratio Chang 65+ to Total Population
After 2010, Most Population Growth In
Minnesota Will Be In People Age 65+
95%
100%
80%
60%
60%
40%
26%
23%
16%
20%
9%
0%
1970-80
1980-90
State Demographer projection
1990-00
2000-10
2010-20
2020-30