Transcript Slide 1

Minnesota Demographic
Change And Dentistry
Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer
Mn Dept of Administration
March 2008
Minnesota Ranks Highly in Many
Social/Economic Indicators
• 2nd percent of 16-64
• 4th lowest rate of disability
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employed (76.9%)
8th lowest poverty rate
1st percent with health
insurance 2004-06 ave
9th median family income in
2006
1st Kids Count 2007
Updated October 2007
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among people age 16-64
1st with at least high school
degree (90.7%)
12th with at least a bachelor’s
degree
1st home ownership
2nd United Health Foundation
ranking of state healthiness
2007
Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many
Health Outcome Measures
2005 United Health Foundation Rankings
Rank
Motor Vehicle Deaths
Mn Rate
US Rate
3
1.0
1.5
21
22.6%
23.1%
1
8.9%
15.7%
27
75.8%
75.4%
Public Health Spending
6
$249
$162
Immunization (children
19-35 months)
11
85.2%
80.9%
Infant Mortality
2
4.8
6.7
YPPL
1
5728
7564
Obesity
Lack of Health Insurance
Pre Natal Care
Successful, Yes
But Demographic Mega-trends Are
Altering The Face Of Minnesota
Suburban growth/ rural and
central city not growing
Increasingly diverse
Aging
And these changes are altering
the client base for dentistry as
well as the workforce
Minnesota Is Projected To Add 1 ¼
Million People In The Next 30 Years
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
20
00
20
07
20
10
20
15
Minnesota State Demographic Center Projections
20
20
20
25
20
30
20
35
Most Growth Is In The Twin City
Suburban Doughnut
• Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the
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state
Suburban ring is spreading outward
7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing
of the nation
Rural and central city declines since 1950
Increasing metropolitan and lakeshore
development have implications for natural
resource management
Population Change 2000-04
Census Bureau Estimate
Population Change
Loss
Gain Under 1,000
Gain 5,000 to 1,000
Gain More Than 5,000
Minnesota is Growing More Diverse
• Minnesota is one of the least diverse
states in the nation—13% minority v US
32%
• Over half of total population growth
this decade is minority.
• And this is related to age—new, diverse
population is younger
Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse
But Still Less Than The Nation
33%
United States
24%
14%
Wisconsin
9%
13%
South Dakota
2005
1990
9%
9%
North Dakota
6%
14%
Minnesota
6%
9%
Iowa
4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Percent Population of Color
Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2005 Census Bureau estimate
Minnesota’s Children Are More
Diverse Than Older People
20%
20%
17%
16%
15%
12%
10%
8%
6%
5%
5%
3%
Age Group
2000 Census
70
+
69
60
to
59
50
to
49
40
to
39
30
to
29
20
to
19
to
10
er
10
0%
U
nd
Percent Minority
25%
Students Speaking Non-English Language At Home:
Much Of The Growth In ESL Enrollment Is Directly Related To Growth In
Local Employment
State 93-94
State 06-07
National 03
St. Paul
Worthington
Richfield
Brooklyn Center
Pelican Rapids
Columbia Heights
Minneapolis
Sleepy Eye
Westbrook-Walnut Grove
Madelia
Mountain Lake
0%
3.0%
11.0%
18.7%
43.4%
37.5%
37.3%
36.6%
32.8%
31.6%
30.6%
30.5%
27.6%
26.2%
25.9%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Percent of Students in 2006-07
Source: Mn Dept of Education data, Districts of more than 100 enrollment.
50%
Aging Is The Dominant Demographic
Trend In Minnesota And The Nation
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It is not normal for a society to age
Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011
and beyond
The leading edge of “Boomers” turn 60 this
year!
By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will
increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double
Aging, combined with growth and increased
diversity will lead to challenges and
opportunities not fully anticipated
From 2005 to 2015, Largest Growth in
Minnesota Will Be in Ages 55 to 69
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
16,200
3,900
6,700
44,500
98,000
119,400
107,200
55,500
-43,400
-64,100
-700
67,200
51,800
-9,600
-29,200
Source: Minnesota State Demographic Center
Numbers are rounded
7,400
49,100
37,600
The Boom Generation Starts Turning 65 in 2011
65+ Passes School Age Around 2020
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
18-24
65+
5-17
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Census counts & State Demographer projection, revised 2007
Aging Will Alter Oral Health Services
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Baby-boom aging--maintenance on complicated
dental appliances and prosthetics, such as bridges.
Older Americans are retaining more of their teeth
than in the past, and are thus more likely to experience
destructive periodontal disease.
While the percentage of individuals older than age 65
without any teeth has declined tremendously over
past 20-30 years, it is still higher than for those
younger than 65.
Older adults often have additional medical
conditions that cause a higher level of maintenance
to be necessary in order to maintain their oral health.
Minnesota Will See a 30 Percent Jump in
Workers Turning Age 62 Beginning 2008
Worked Within Past 5 years
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
7/05 to
7/06
7/06 to
7/07
7/07 to
7/08
7/08 to
7/09
7/09 to
7/10
Year Turning Age 62
2005 ACS
7/10 to
7/11
7/11 to
7/12
Competition For The Future
Workforce Will Increase
14%
13.0%
Percent Change 18-24
12%
10%
8%
US
Mn
6.8%
6%
4.5%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-1.2%
-4%
-1.6%
-2.2%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-6%
2000-05
2005-10
2010-15
Census Bureau US Proj, Mn State Demographer revised 2007
2015-20
Migration Will Be An Increasingly
Important Component To The Slowing
Labor Force Growth
Net Labor Force Growth
500,000
400,000
Total
Natural
Part Rate
Migration
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
-100,000
2000-10
State Demographer projection revised 2007
2010-20
2020-30
Two Thirds of Active Minnesota
Dentist Are 50+
Percent Of Dentists
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
21%
30%
36%
50%
40%
26%
30%
20%
10%
0%
30%
14%
19%
14%
4%
5%
Nation
Minnesota
2006 American Community Survey
60+
50-59
40-49
30-39
Under 30
Dentists Are Older Than The
Overall Workforce
Total Workforce
28%
Dental Hygenists
& Assistants
20%
Dentists
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Percent Of Workforce Age 50+
2006 ACS
60%
70%
U.S. Age Structure Of Dentals And
Related Occupations
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
Dentist
Hyginests
Dental Asst
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
U
2006 American Community Survey
75
+
nd
er
25
25
-2
9
30
-3
4
35
-3
9
40
-4
4
45
-4
9
50
-5
4
55
-5
9
60
-6
4
65
-6
9
70
-7
4
0