Transcript Demographic Trends Affecting Cities

Demographic Trends
Affecting Cities
Aging
Outline
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Trends
Implications for cities
Checklist for cities
Information resources
Trends
 Aging is dominant demographic
trend
 Number of Minnesotans over 65 will
double in next 25 years to 1.3 million
 By 2020, there will be more individuals
over 65 than school age
 Significant service impacts
Trends
Age Distribution of Minnesota 2000 Population
80 to 84 years
70 to 74 years
60 to 64 years
50 to 54 years
40 to 44 years
30 to 34 years
20 to 24 years
10 to 14 years
Under 5 years
-0.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-0.05
Males
0
0.05
Females
0.1
Trends
More 65+ than school age by 2020:
budget priorities likely to change
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
18-24
65+
5-17
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Source: Census counts & State Demographer projection
Trends
 All regions will see growth in population
over 65
 Over 65 will concentrate in central lakes
region and metro corridor
 Over 65 will grow fastest in corridor
between St. Cloud and Rochester
 In south and southwest regions, the only
population growth will be among over 65
Trends
 Aging today:
 Better overall health, longer life
expectancies
 More chronic illness (e.g. diabetes)
 Trend of aging in place (only 10% of
older Minnesotans plan to move)
 Working longer
Implications for Cities
 New service needs can include:
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Transit
Easy-to-read signage, more parking
Sidewalks and ramps, better lighting
Public safety; crime prevention
Different housing
Implications for Cities
More empty nesters and single elderly households In the
future — Will housing change?
Other Nonfamily
Hhds
41,800
65+ Living Alone
165,800
Under 65 Living
Alone
93,100
Families without
Children
295,000
Families with
Children
19,200
0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000
Change Number of Households 2005-2030
Source: Office of State Demographer
Implications for Cities
Different stages =
different housing characteristics sought
Young families with
children
 Good Schools
 Good
neighborhood
 Access to
outdoors
 Kids rooms
 Closets and
storage
 Convenient to job
Older couples or singles
 Secure
 Accessible
 Little maintenance
 Convenient to friends
and relatives
 Quality construction
 Transit/pedestrian
friendly
Implications for Cities
Minnesota labor force growth will slow down
Net Labor Force Growth
600000
450000
300000
150000
0
1970-80
1980-90
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
1990-00
2000-10
2010-20
2020-30
Implications for Cities
Minnesota government has fewer young workers and more
old workers than the private sector
%
53
.1
%
23
.5
%
23
.4
%
27
.6
%
25
.5
30%
%
35
.3
%
37
.1
%
40%
39
.7
%
50%
34
.8
Percent of Workforce
60%
20%
10%
0%
Under 40
2004 American Community Survey
40's
50+
Local Government
State Government
Private For Profit
Implications for Cities
 Minnesota cities’ workforce
 Almost 37% of city employees are over
age 50 (excluding police and
firefighters).
 Almost half of the cities in Minnesota
have at least 25% of their employees
over age 50.
 In 150 cities, at least half of the
employees are over age 50.
Source: PERA
Implications for Cities
 Choices employers have when
faced with a tightening labor
market
 Encourage retention or hiring of nontraditional workers such as older workers
 Increase per worker productivity
 Export jobs
 Import workers--means more residents
Implications for Cities
 The sense of community is changing
with changing population
 Differences between cities and suburb/exurb
areas increasing
 Differences between metro area and rest of
the state increasing
 Many new residents
 New cultures, languages and other
characteristics
Checklist for Cities
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What is age make up of current residents
What will service needs be for: over 65, over 85,
mobile/less mobile residents, active/less active
residents
Do we have plan to develop new services
Will finances allow new services; how will we pay
How will we keep aging citizens engaged
Have we done workforce analysis
How will we capture knowledge of retiring
workers
Checklist for Cities
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What changes in job structure and work rules
might be needed to retain older workers
What are less labor-intensive ways to deliver
services
How do ethnic groups view city employment
What training do supervisors/employees need to
deal with diverse workforce
What has county done already to address aging
needs
Checklist for Cities
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What types and ages of people are likely
to stay in or move to our community
Do we have good understanding of future
age makeup
Are there steps we can take to change
future age makeup
Is housing stock consistent with needs of
projected population
Resources
 Minnesota Board on Aging
 www.mnaging.org
 Area Agencies on Aging
 www.minnesota-aaa.org
 League of Minnesota Cities
 www.lmc.org