Transcript Document

Reducing the Gap
in Achievement &
Graduation:
Start With
Monitoring
Chronic Absence
(September 28, 2012)
Hedy Chang, Director
[email protected]
What does this
statement mean to you?
Talent is Abundant
But Opportunity is
Scarce
2
An Antidote to Drop-Out
Attendance Every Day
Achievement Every Year
Attainment Over Time
Developed by Annie E. Casey Foundation & America’s Promise Alliance
For more info go to www.americaspromise.org/parentengagement
3
Unpacking Attendance Terms
Average Daily
Attendance
Truancy
Chronic
Absence
• Definition: The % of enrolled students who attend school each day
• Answers: What resources are needed to serve typical number of students who
show up to school?
• Definition: Typically refers only to unexcused absences and is defined by each
state . In CA, truancy is defined as missing school 3 times without a valid excuse or
being late to class by more than 30 minutes without a valid excuse.
• Answers: How many/which students are skipping school and breaking the law?
• Definition: Missing 10% or more of school for any reason – excuse, unexcused,
etc.
• Answers: How many and which students are missing so much school they are
academically at risk? Do we need to improve attendance in order to raise
achievement?
4
When 90% Doesn’t Earn an “A”
Students Who Miss More Than 10% Of School
Are At Grave Academic Risk
0-90%
Chronic Absence
(=>10% absence)
91-94%
Warning Signs
(<10% but >5% absence)
95 %+
Satisfactory Attendance
(=<5% absence)
Emergency: =>20% absence
5
Chronic Absence is a Hidden
National Crisis
 Nationwide, as many as 7.5 million students
miss nearly a month of school every year.
 In some cities, as many as one in four students
are missing that much school.
 Chronic absenteeism is a red alert that
students are headed for academic trouble and
eventually for dropping out of high school.
 Poor attendance isn’t just a problem in high
school. It can start as early as kindergarten.
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Students Chronically Absent in
Kindergarten & 1st Grade Much Less
Likely to Read Proficiently in 3rd Grade
Percent Students Scoring Proficient or Advanced on 3rd Grade
ELA Based on Attendance in Kindergarten and 1st Grade
100%
80%
64%
60%
43%
41%
40%
17%
20%
0%
No attendance risks
No risk
Small risk
Moderate risk
High risk
Small attendance risks
Moderate attendance risks
High attendance risks
Missed less than 5% of school in K & 1st t
Missed 5-9% of days in both K & 1st
5-9% of days absent in 1 year &10 % in 1 year
Missed 10% or more in K & 1st
7
Source: Applied Survey Research & Attendance Works (April 2011)
In Baltimore, chronic absence in both preK
and K predicted significantly worse
outcomes including
 Greater likelihood of continued poor attendance.
50% chronically absent again in G1, 45% in G2.
 Lower outcomes in G1, G2 in reading and math, and
math in G3.
 More often retained (26% compared with 9% of
students with no chronic absence).
 More likely to be identified as needing special
education.
 Worst outcomes for children who did not attend
preK.
By contrast, children who participated in Head Start had
better attendance and higher 3rd grade test scores.
8
The Long-term impact of Chronic
Kindergarten Absence Is Most
Troubling for Poor Children
K Chronic Absence Associated with Lower 5th Grade Math and
Reading Performance Even When Attendance Improved in 3rd Grade
Average Academic Performance
52
50
48
46
Reading
Math
44
42
40
0-3.3% in K
3.3 - 6.6% in K
6.6-10.0% in K
>=10.0% in K
Absence Rate in Kindergarten
Source: ECLS-K data analyzed by National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP)
Note: Average academic performance reflects results of direct cognitive assessments
conducted for ECLS-K.
9
Chronic Absence is Especially
Challenging for Low-Income Children

Poor children are 4x more likely to be chronically absent in K
than their highest income peers.

Children in poverty are more likely to lack basic health and
safety supports that ensure a child is more likely to get to
school. They often face:






Unstable Housing
Limited Access to Health Care
Poor Transportation
Inadequate Food and Clothing
Lack of Safe Paths to School Due to Neighborhood
Violence
Chaotic Schools with Poor Quality Programs, etc.
10
* (Romero & Lee 2007)
Chronically Absent 6th Graders Have
Lower Graduation Rates
Dropout Rates by Sixth Grade Attendance
(Baltimore City Public Schools, 1990-2000 Sixth Grade Cohort)
Severely
Chronically
Absent
Chronically
Absent
Not
Chronically
Absent
11
Source: Baltimore Education Research Consortium SY 2009-2010
9th Grade Attendance Predicts
Graduation for Students of All
Economic Backgrounds
Need to recolor chart
Note: This Chicago study found attendance was a stronger
graduation predictor than 8th grade test scores.
Source: Allensworth & Easton, What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in
Chicago Public Schools, Consortium on Chicago School Research at U of C, July 2007
12
Moving into Action Requires Knowing
If Chronic Absence is a Problem
Most Schools Only Track Average Daily Attendance and Truancy.
Both Can Mask Chronic Absence.
Chronic Absence For 7 Elementary Schools in
Oakland, CA with @ 95% ADA in 2012
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
12%
13%
13%
15%
16%
7%
5%
0%
A
B
C
D
% Chronic Absence
E
F
98% ADA = little chronic absence, 95%ADA = don’t know;
93% ADA = significant chronic absence
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Sporadic — Not Just Consecutive –
Absences Matter
New York City Schools
A 407 alert is issued when student misses 10 consecutive days or 20 days over a 40
day period. It misses more sporadic absence.
1 out of 5 elementary school children were chronically absent.
14
Source: Nauer K et al, Strengthening Schools by Strengthening Families, Center for
New York City Affairs New School, Oct 2008
Chronic Absence Versus Truancy
(San Francisco Unified School District)
(Note: SFUSD identified chron/hab truants as = 10 unexcused absences)
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Data is Needed for Identifying
Programmatic Solutions
 Chronic absence data (as well as other attendance
measures) should be examined by classroom, grade,
school, neighborhood or sub-population.
 If chronic absence is unusually high for a particular
group of students, explore what might be common
issues (unreliable transportation, community violence,
asthma and other chronic diseases, poor access to
health care, unnecessary suspension for non-violent
offenses, lack of engaging curriculum, child care or
afterschool programming, foreclosures, etc.)
 If chronic absence is unusually low for a high-risk
population, find out what they are doing that works.
16
16
Elementary Absenteeism
Concentrated in West Oakland
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Schools + Communities CAN
Make a Difference
Characteristics of Successful Attendance Initiatives

Partner with community agencies to help families carry out
their responsibility to get children to school.

Make attendance a priority, set targets and monitor progress
over time.

Engage parents and students in identifying and addressing
school, family, and community issues that contribute to
chronic absence.

Clearly communicate expectations for attendance to students
and families.

Begin early, ideally in Pre-K.

Combine targeted interventions with universal strategies that
nurture an engaged learning environment, build a culture of
attendance and ensure physical health and safety at school.

Offer positive supports before punitive action.
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Increased Attendance Involves a
3-Tiered Approach that Fits with Most
Reform Efforts
High
Cost
Students who were chronically
absent in prior year or starting to
Recovery
miss 20% or more
of school
Programs
Students at risk for
chronic absence
All students
in the school
Intervention
Programs
Universal/Preventive
Programs
A small fraction
of a school’s
students
Some
of a school’s
students
All of
a school’s
students
Low
Cost
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Solutions Only Work If Grounded in
Understanding Of What Leads to Chronic
Absence
Discretion
Aversion
Parents don’t
know
attendance
matters
Child is
struggling
academically
School lacks a
strong culture
of attendance
Child is being
bullied
Barriers
Lack of access
to health care
No safe path
to school
Poor
transportation
Special thanks to Dr. Robert Balfanz, Everyone Graduates Center, Johns
Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD for providing this framework.
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Proposed Universal Strategies For
Influencing Discretion and Identifying
Causes of Absence
Recognize Good &
Improved
Attendance
Parent and
Student
Engagement
Personalized Early
Outreach
School Team
Monitoring
Attendance Data
& Practice
21
Strategies for 3 Tiered Approach
Universal strategies are part of tiered interventions
•
Case management and wrap-around services
•
Referral as last resort for court-based intervention
Recovery
Programs
Intervention
•
Early outreach, support, mentoring for students
with poor attendance
Programs
•
Identify and remove barriers
Intervention
Programs
•
Attendance contracts
Universal/Preventive
Universal/Preventive
Programs
Programs
•
Safe and supportive school environment
•
Engaging classroom environments
•
Parent education about why attendance matters
and how to help each other get students to school
•
On-going attention to attendance data
•
Recognition for good and improved attendance
•
Collaboration with afterschool and early childhood
•
School-based health support
Recovery
Programs
22
Ingredients For Success &
Sustainability in a District
Conveys
importance
of building a
habit of
attendance
& what is
chronic
absence
Is accurate,
regularly
reported and
easily
obtained
Messaging
Capacity
Building
Strengthens
Family/School
Relationship
Accountability
Data
Expands
ability to
interpret
data and
adopt best
practices
Ensures
monitoring
& incentives
to reduce
chronic
absence
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Putting in Place A Systemic &
Sustainable Approach
The Superintendents Call to Action
Own the
Issue
Mobilize
the
Community
Drive With
Data
Register at: www.attendanceworks.org/superintendents-call-to-action
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Lessons Learned
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Avoid the blame game. Find out how everyone
can contribute to reducing absences.
Use data to identify priorities where you can
make the greatest impact – for example -the
transitions to K and 9th grade.
Provide positive supports first – it’s less costly and
more effective.
Build ownership at the school site level. But,
remember schools can’t do it alone!
Engage in systemic reform by bringing together
key stakeholders at district/community level
and staffing the coordinated effort.
Reducing chronic absence takes time and
sustained attention.
Especially as students get older, combine
attention to attendance with other early warning
indicators.
25
Using Early Warning Systems
To Raise Achievement,
Decrease Dropouts, and
Increase Post-Secondary Success
Robert Balfanz
Everyone Graduates Center
Johns Hopkins University
Core Idea of Early Warning Systems
(EWS)
• To graduate college and career ready, students
need to successfully navigate several key
transitions and acquire a set of academic
behaviors - in short they need to learn how to
succeed at school
• Students signal that they are on- or off-track
towards these outcomes through their
attendance, behavior, and course performancethe ABC’s
Substantial Numbers of Future Dropouts can be identified in as
early as 6th grade
Literacy
20%
Grade in School
12
th
ra
du
at
io
n
+
1
ye
ar
G
th
11
th
10
h
0%
9t
“F” in Math and/or English or CreditBearing HS Course
Math
h
• Course Performance – A final grade of
Behavior
8t
mark in at least one class
80%
% of
students
60%
who are ontrack to 40%
graduation
h
• Behavior - “unsatisfactory” behavior
Attendance
7t
attendance
100%
h
• Attendance - <85-90% school
Sixth Graders (1996-97) with an
Early Warning Indicator
6t
The Primary Off-Track Indicators for
Potential Dropouts:
Sixth-grade students with one or more of the indicators may
have only a 15% to 25% chance of graduating from high
school on time or within one year of expected graduation
Note: Early Warning Indicator graph from Philadelphia research which has been replicated in 10 cities.
Robert Balfanz and Liza Herzog, Johns Hopkins University; Philadelphia Education Fund
In High Poverty School Districts, 75% or More of Eventual
Dropouts Can be Identified between
the 6th and 9th Grade
Percent of Dropouts That Can Be
Identified between the 6th and 9th
grade-Boston Class of 2003
End of 6th Grade
24%
43%
32%
End of 9th Grade
No Off Track
Indicator 6th-9th
Grade
Core Idea of EWS cont.
• By tracking the ABC’s it is possible to identify
when students are beginning to fall off-track,
providing time to intervene and alter their
trajectory through school and beyond
• Using ABC Early Indicator data it is possible to
design more targeted and effective
interventions at the individual, classroom,
school, and even district and state levels.
Findings from Chicago Consortium of
School Research
• Virtually all students with a B average or
higher in the 9th grade graduate in 4 years
• The vast majority of students with multiple
failures in the 9th grade will not graduate
• Students with D+/C averages are harder to
predict and can go either way
If graduation is determined by course
grades, what affects grades?
• Students’ behaviors are the main drivers of course failure
– Attendance is 8 times more predictive of failure than
prior test scores
• Demographic & economic background characteristics explain 7% of
course failures
• Eighth-grade test scores explain an additional 5% (12% total)
• Student behaviors--absences and effort- explain an additional 61%
(73% total)
– Attendance is also the strongest predictor of course grades,
although prior academic ability is also very important for
high grades
Impact of Attendance on
Achievement
Post-Secondary Success IndicatorsEarly Findings
• Not having any off-track indicators for high school
graduation leads to increased odds of post-secondary
attainment
• But to have high odds of post-secondary attainment
students need to have a very strong 9th grade year-strong
attendance, no behavior problems, B or better average-and
be on-age
• Low ABC’s predict high school dropout, high ABC’s predict
post-secondary success
• Means we can have unified high school graduation to postsecondary success indicator system
Impact of Attendance on
High School Graduation
and Post-Secondary Enrollment
The Cost of Inaction is High:
School Disengagement in Middle Grades
Precedes Involvement with the Juvenile
Justice System and Teenage Pregnancy
Males Incarcerated in High
School-Philadelphia
33%
67%
Females Who Give Birth in
High School-Philadelphia
No 6th Grade
Indicator
6th Grade Off
Track Indicator
33%
67%
No 6th Grade
Indicator
6th Grade Off
Track Indicator
How Can
Early Warning Systems
Be Used?
Early Warning Indicator and
Intervention Systems (EWS)
• Combine ready access, at the classroom level, to on- and
off-track indicators (the ABC’s), with regular time to analyze
the data and an organized response system that can act
upon early warning data in both a systematic and tailored
manner.
• The most effective school-level intervention systems
combined whole-school/classroom prevention, targeted
problem solving and moderate intensity supports when
prevention does not work, and case managed high intensity
supports for the neediest students.
• Investments in mission-building, professional development,
coaching and networking are critical to success
Emerging Thresholds for Off-Track
Indicators
• Attendance-missing 10% or 20 or more days of school
• Behavior-Two or more behavior infractions in a year (e.g. suspensions) or
sustained mild misbehavior
• Course Performance-Failing a math or English class in the middle grades,
failing two or more credit bearing courses in high school
• Specific cut points can and will vary around these normative thresholds
depending on trade offs between efficiency (i.e. minimizing false positives) and
yield (capturing large percent of students on path to dropping out), as well as,
whether triggers are being set for monitoring and problem solving vs.
substantial intervention
Early Warning Indicator Data Tool
• Without additional support to provide interventions at the scale and intensity required to meet each student’s
individual needs, teachers can easy feel overwhelmed.
• Research has shown that when teachers feel overwhelmed by the level of challenge in high needs schools, they
will often lower expectations for students.
Student
Attendance
Behavior
Comments
Math
Grades
Literacy
Grades
Assessments
07-08: 08-09:
Reading
Days Days 07-08: 08-09:
Grade
Absent Absent Att.% Att.% Dec Mar Dec Mar Dec Mar
Level
Math
PSSA
2008
Literacy
PSSA
2008
A
9
19
95% 84%
5
6
C
D
D
C
8
Proficient
Basic
B
12
13
93% 89%
7
8
D
C
F
D
6.5
Below
Basic
Basic
C
48
69
73% 43% 10
10
F
F
F
D
5.5
Below
Basic
Below
Basic
Keeping Students On-Track
Pre-K to Post-SecondaryConsider Both Academic and Social Needs
• Pre-K and Elementary Grades-Core academic competencies
and socialized into the norms of schooling in a joyful manner
• Middle Grades-Intermediate academic skills (reading
comprehension and fluency, transition from arithmetic to
mathematics) and a need for adventure and camaraderie
• High School-Transition to adult behaviors and mind set and a
path to college and career readiness, as well as the right extra
help for students with below grade level skills
Focus on the ABC’s-Attendance
• Understand that chronic absenteeism (missing a month or more of school)
is much more widespread, particularly in high poverty communities, then
is commonly recognized and that like bacteria in hospitals creates havoc
• Organize comprehensive efforts built around knowledge that from the
middle grades on student absenteeism driven by combination of student
choice, school factors driving students away, and out of school factors
pulling them away
• Create programing that compels students to come to school-e.g. most
engaged middle grades students often found in cognitively rich activities
which combine teamwork with performance (Robotics, debate, drama,
chess etc.)
• Build an attendance problem solving capacity into schools and districts
extend it via a network of relationships with wrap around service
providers
Focus on ABC’s-Behavior and Effort
• Model and teach resiliency and selfmanagement/organization skills
• Model and teach staying out of trouble skills
• Build Success Scripts in student’s heads (effort
leads to success), work to undermine Failure
Scripts (life is capricious, withholding effort
keeps you psychologically safe)
Focus on ABC’s- Course Performance
• Provide course coaching-assistance, support, and on
occasion even advocacy which enables students to
succeed in their courses-including monitoring
assignment completion, and preparation for tests and
quizzes, and help with catching up when absent
• Make sure tutoring efforts are linked tightly with needs
and expectations of student’s courses (don’t work on
fractions if Friday’s test is on probability)
• For high school students, provide opportunity for rapid
credit recovery
Need to Build and Provide Transitional Support
from High School to College and Career
• All students need a clear pathway from college to
post-secondary schooling and training
• Many students will need additional supports - both
academic and social - to successfully make the
transition
• Currently no one owns the space between students
meeting HS graduation requirements and starting
college and career training. Do not really have a way to
fund this-falls between cracks of public school system
and state university system
In Highest Needs Schools
Combine Whole School Transformation
with Enhanced Student and
Teacher Supports
Designing Schools to Meet High Educational Challenges
Intensity of interventions
Providing the Right Support to the Right Student at the Right Time
at the Scale and Intensity Required
Intensive One on One Supports:
 Driven by needs assessment
 Case managed
 Professionally provided when whole school and
moderate intensity supports are not sufficient








Extra-Supports Provided:
At first sign of student need
To all students who need it (no triage)
Diagnostic tools insure it’s the right support (e.g.
cognitive or socio-emotional)
Moderate intensity but if needed continuously available
Whole School is Organized and Supported to Enable:
Effective instruction (including teacher professional development
connected to the early warning indicators)
Safe and positive learning climate
High student engagement (Attend, Behave, Try Hard)
Collective efficacy and all graduate mission among staff
The Diplomas Now Model
Instructional Supports
Organizational Supports
• Double dose math & English
• Extra help labs
• Common college preparatory or
high school readiness curricula
Professional Development
Supports
• Job-embedded coaching - Math and
English instructional coaches
• Professional learning community
• Professional development linked to
grade/subject specific instructional
practice
• Inter-disciplinary and subject
focused common planning time
• Bi-weekly EWI meetings
• On-site school transformation
facilitator
Teacher Team
(4 teachers)
75-90
students
Data Supports
• Easy access to student data on the
Early Warning Indicators
• Benchmarks tied to national and state
standards
• On-site facilitator to leverage EWI data
Student Supports
Multi Tiered Response to Intervention Model
• 10 to 15 City Year AmeriCorps members: whole
school and targeted academic and
socio-emotional supports
• Communities In Schools on-site coordinator: case
managed supports for highest need students
Interventions to address early
warning indicators of
• Attendance
• Behavior
• Course Performance
• Whole school attendance,
positive behavior, collegegoing culture
• Strengthening student
resiliency
Diplomas Now Sample Results:
Philadelphia Middle Schools
Diplomas Now partnered with three Philadelphia high poverty middle schools in 20092010. These schools average 615 students, 84% of whom are eligible to receive free or
reduced price lunch. Below are the aggregate results for all three schools from the
2009-10 school year.
Attendance
# of Students with less
than 80% Attendance
60
# of Students with 3 or more
negative behavior marks
100
50
55%
40
Reduction
Course Performance
Behavior
80
52%
35
82%
Math
Reduction
30
Reduction
English
25
60
30
20
40
10
20
0
0
June 2009
June 2010
# of Students receiving an F
in Math or English
20
15
10
78%
5
Reduction
0
June 2009
June 2010
June 2009
June 2010
Help Broker Policy Reviews
• Schools and communities need to measure and act on
chronic absenteeism-the number of students who miss
a month or more of school (also measure those who
miss a week or less).
• Schools and communities need positive behavior
support programs and alternatives to suspensions and
may need to re-examine their disciplinary policies
• Schools and communities need effective second
chance and credit recovery programs which hold
students accountable but provide a reason for them to
keep trying
Solve the Funding Conundrum
• We spend large amounts on youth recovery efforts
with low odds of success-juvenile justice etc.
• We need to find ways to pool and shift youth
development dollars so that more funding is available
for proven prevention strategies
• We also need to view supporting early warning
systems-including teacher time and community
supports-as a high value Title 1 investment
• Implementing an Early Warning System should be a
required and funded component of school turnaround
Know and Understand the Graduation
Challenge in Your CommunityFour Studies that Matter
• Segmentation Study- How many students dropout each year, how
far are they from graduation, how old are they?
• Cohort/Early Warning Indicator (EWI) Study –How early and with
what indicators can potential dropouts be identified?
• Distribution of Students with EWI-In which middle and high
schools are students with early warning indicators concentrated,
which schools do most dropouts attend?
• Success in Post-Secondary-What percent of students from each
high school graduate from college?
Keeping States and Communities
On Track-CMP Benchmarks
• To achieve a 90% graduation rate for the Class of 2020, we
need clear goals along the way:
– By 2012-13, substantially increase number of students reading
on grade level by 4th grade; chronic absenteeism significantly
reduced; needs assessment conducted for all low graduation
rate communities
– By 2014-15, every low graduation state & school district has
early warning & intervention system; a non-profit success
mentor for every 15-20 off-track students
– By 2016, all low graduation rate high schools in process of being
transformed or replaced; compulsory school age increased to
18 in all states; clear pathways to college and career for all
(including dropouts)
The Good News is
• We know why students dropout, which schools they
dropout from and what the warning signs are
• Effective interventions and examples of substantial
improvement exist, even in cities once viewed as
unreformable and states viewed as too poor
• We are left with a giant engineering challenge of
getting the right supports, to the right students, at the
right time, at the scale and intensity required
• America is good at engineering challenges
For more information
• Visit the Everyone Graduates Center website
at www.every1graduates.org
• E-mail Robert Balfanz at [email protected]
and Joanna Fox at [email protected]