Transcript Extreme Weather Events – Climate Change Implications and

Extreme Weather Events – Climate
Change Implications and
Disaster Risk Management
Dr. Anil K. Gupta
Associate professor,
National Institute of Disaster Management
(Government of India, Ministry of Home Affairs)
New Delhi
Catastrophe events (1970-2001)
All natural catastrophes worldwide
1980 – 2005, number of events
Reported catastrophe losses in India,
1965-2001
Disasters in India
Hazard Vulnerability in India
60%
8%
16%
..15%
12%
Long coastline of 8000 kms
40 million hectres are prone to flood
68% of the net area
sown in the country
is prone to drought
Legend
INDIASTATE
Drought
Not affected
Moderately affected
Severely affected
More than 20% of the total
geographical area of India is
prone to landslides.
Major Natural Disasters
: 1990 - 2006
Earthquakes
Uttarkashi
Latur (Killari)
Jabalpur
Chamoli
Kutchchh, Gujarat
J&K
1991
1993
1997
1999
2001
2005
Earthquake, J&K
Oct.8, 2005
Earthquake, Gujarat
January 26, 2001
Cyclones
East & West Godavari 1992&
dist.of Andhra Pradesh 1996
Kutchchh, Gujarat
1998
Orissa
1999
Floods
Punjab
Kerala
Punjab & Haryana
Mumbai
Bihar
1993
1994
1996
2005
2008
Tsunami
Dec.26, 2004
Tsunami
Andaman & Nicobar
Islands & coastal areas 2004
11
Increased Mortality and Homelessness
Year
Disaster Events
Deaths
Houses Destroyed /
damaged
1993
Latur Earthquake
8,000
200,000
1999
Orissa Super
Cyclone
10,000
275,000
2001
Bhuj Earthquake
13,800
1,000,000
2004
South India
Tsunami
16,500
150,000
2005
Jammu & Kashmir
Earthquake
1,300
41,000
2008
Kosi Floods, Bihar
300
375,000
2009
Cyclone, AILA
120 so
Affected 5.4 million
people in 18 districts
far
Global analysis of records reveal that nearly 90 % of loss of life due to natural
disasters were caused by weather- climate and water-related hazards
Increasing number of natural disasters over the past five and half decades (Data from UN/ISDR –
“Disaster Statistics” http://www.unisdr.org/disaster-statistics/occourence-trends-century.htm)
CLIMATE-CHANGE AND DISASTER RISKS
Geo-physical
•Ocean
temperature
•Sea level
•Snow cover
•Mountain glaciers
•Arctic sea-ice
extent
•Permafrost extent
•GLOFS
Climatic
•Wind
patterns
•Air temperature
•Precipitation
patterns
•Rainy days
•Rainfall
•Spatial
distribution
•Evaporation
•Transpiration
Disaster
•Floods
•Heat
waves
•Tropical cyclones
•Cold days and nights
•Hot days and nights
•Hot extremes
•Droughts
•Desertification
Environment, climate and disasters
DISASTERS IDENTIFIED BY
High Powered Committee (HPC)
I. WATER AND CLIMATE RELATED DISASTERS
1. Floods
2. Cyclones
3. Tornadoes
4. Hailstorm
5. Cloud Burst
6. Heat Wave and Cold Wave
7. Snow Avalanches
8. Droughts
9. Sea Erosion
10. Thunder and Lightning
11. Tsunami (Added)
II. GEOLOGICALLY RELATED DISASTERS
1.
2.
3.
4.
Landslides and Mudflows
Earthquakes
Dam Failures/ Dam Bursts
Mine Fires
III. CHEMICAL, INDUSTRIAL AND NUCLEAR
1. Chemical and Industrial Disasters
2. Nuclear Disasters
IV. ACCIDENT RELATED DISASTERS
1. Forest Fires
2. Urban Fires
3. Mine Flooding
4. Oil Spill
5. Major Building Collapse
6. Serial Bomb Blasts
7. Festival related disasters
8. Electrical Disasters and Fires
9. Air, Road and Rail Accidents
10. Boat Capsizing
11. Village Fire
V. BIOLOGICALLY RELATED DISASTERS
1.
2.
3.
4.
Biological Disasters and Epidemics
Pest Attacks
Cattle Epidemics
Food Poisoning
Disaster - types: Naturally-classified…
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Environmental (natural or man-made)
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Rail, Industrial (Electrical, Mechanical, chemical..),
Nuclear, Aviation, Road…
Security threats
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Originating in
environment
Technological & civil / sectorial
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Geo-hydrological
Biological
Chemical
Fires (env.)
Epidemics….
Terrorism, sabotage, bomb blast…
War
Festival related – Stempede etc.
ALARP
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As Low As Reasonable Practicable (ALRAP)
The lower the risk less proportionately, it is
necessary to spend to reduce it. This concept of
diminishing proportion is shown by the triangle
1.0E-01
Individual risk (IR)
Unacceptable region
1.0E-03
The ALARP
1.0E-05
DRR ZONE
Broadly acceptable region
BATNEEC
1.0E-07
1.0E-09
Negligible risk
Disaster Risk Management
Disaster Management Vehicle
RISK MANAGEMENT
Preventio
n
Planning
EMERGENCY RESPONSE
Mitigation
Preparedness
Planning
Response
Hazard / Risk
Reduction
Vulnerability
Reduction
ENVIRONMENT
Emergency
Risk
Assessment
Governance
COMMAND
community
Evaluation
Monitorin
g
Management centric
Reconstruction
Rehabilitatio
n
Operation centric
Relief
FUNCTIONS-…. DISASTER REDUCTION
HAZARD RISK
ANALYSIS
MULT-HAZARD
IMPACT ANALYSIS
MCAS &
CONSEQUENCE
ASSESSMENT
SITE RISK
ASSESSMENT
HAZARD
MITIGATION
DISASTER
MANAGEMENT
STRATEGY
RISK INTEG RATION
INTO
DEVELOPMENT
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE &
EVALUATION
LAND-USE &
ENVIRONMENTAL
SETTING
EMERGENCY
PLANNING
PREPAREDNESS
RESPONSE
DRILL
IMPACTS OF DISASTERS
Disaster Event
Physical
Environmental
SOCIAL
Economic
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Physical (buildings, structures, physical property, industry, roads,
bridges, etc.)
Environmental (water, land/soil, land-use, landscape, crops,
lake/rivers / estuaries, aquaculture, forests, animals/livestock,
wildlife, atmosphere, energy, etc.)
Social (life, health, employment, relations, security, peace, etc.)
Economic (assets, deposits, reserves, income, commerce, production,
guarantee/insurance, etc.)
DM Paradigm Shift
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Response Centric
Relief Centric
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Mitigation centric
Preparedness centric
Disaster Centric
Adaptation
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Hazard Centric
Vulnerability Centric
Environment Centric
PREVENTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT
A. Hazard – Vulnerability
Relief
Disaster
B. Hazard -
Disaster
Mitigation
A: Business as Usual;
B; Preferred Approach
Relief
Concept of Disaster Risk Reduction
Risk Reduction:
 Event minimization
 Loss minimization
 Quick
recovery (Resilience)
Approach:
 Visualizing hazards
 Reducing vulnerability
 Increasing coping capacities
DRR Strategy Design – Components
 What
is the risk
hazard - event
 What
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is at risk
– Life, Structures, Resources, Infrastructure
Resist
Resilience
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Avoid
Tolerate
Manage
Programmes
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x damageability
Direct
Indirect
Infused
HRVC Analysis
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Hazard identification
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Critical Facility Analysis
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Establish relative priorities for your hazards.
Hazard Mapping
Identify critical facilities categories
Complete a critical facilities inventory
Identify intersections of critical facilities with highrisk areas
Vulnerability Analysis
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Societal
Infrastructure
Environmental
Economic
Disaster Risk Management and Adaptation Strategies
‘adaptation’ to
climate-change
and its
implications
towards disaster
management,
aims at
developing a set
of abilities to
sustain in the
given complex
scenario of
influences along
human
environment.
THE COMPONENTS OF ADAPTATION
Reducing the risk of
occurrence of a
hazard event
(i) prevention
(ii) mitigation or
(iii) control
Sensitivity-adaptation framework to climate-change
Reducing exposure to
hazardous event
(i) avoidance/migration
(ii) resilience
Capacity to contain
(i) prevent damages
(ii) prevent losses
(iii) early normalcy
Potential hazards, DRR-Adaptation and mainstreaming options
Environmental
conditions
for
Environmental
disaster
risks
conditions
for
disaster risks
 Desertification
Desertification
 Drought
Drought
 Floods
Floods
 Cyclones
Cyclones
 Landslides
 Landslides
 Earthquakes  Earthquakes effects
effects
 Hazards:
Hazards:
 Fire
Fire (Forests/
(Forests/
 Mine/
Mine/ Residues)
Residues)
 Biological
Biological
 Diseases/
Diseases/
epidemic/
epidemic/
pandemic
Adaptation
Adaptation
Development Goals
Risk Reduction (pro-active)
Disaster Response
Risk Reduction (pro-active)
Disaster Response
 Soil-water management
Soil-water management
 erosion
erosion reclaimation
 wasteland
wasteland
reclaimation
 Slope
protection
& remediation
Slope protection & remediation
 Afforestation
 Afforestation
 Crop diversification
 Crop diversification
 Alternative crops & cropping
 Alternative crops & cropping
patterns
patterns
 Forestry-produce
Forestry-produce
 Wetlands
Wetlands
 Fisheries/aquaculture
Fisheries/aquaculture
 Housing
Housing designs
designs
 Land-use
Land-use
 Alternative employment
 Fiscal measures
Emergency
Emergency
response.
response. Response,
Medical,
Medical, Response,
Relief/
Relief/
Rehabilitation
Rehabilitation
Development Goals
 Agriculture production
 and
Agriculture
production
sustainability
and sustainability
 Natural
Resources
 renewal
Natural Resources
and
renewal and
management
management
 Water resource / supply
 Water resource / supply
 Health & nutrition
 Health & nutrition
 Poverty eradication and
 Poverty eradication and
employment
employment
 Housing
Housing
 Urban
Urban development
development
 Transport/Roads
Transport/Roads
 Service
Service sectors
sectors
 Industrial development
 Economic/ equity
View point: outside a political manual or
drought declaration
DROUGHT SEQUENCE
Meteorological
Hydrological
Environmental
Ecosystems
Agriculture
Socio-economic Drought
Habitation
The Disaster Management Act 2005
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The Disaster Management Act was enacted on
23rd December,2005. The Act provides for
establishment of 
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NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority)
SDMA (State Disaster Management Authority)
DDMA (District Disaster Management Authority)
Act provides for constitution of Disaster
Response Fund and Disaster Mitigation Fund at
National, State and District level.
Establishment of NIDM and NDRF.
NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF DISASTER MANAGEMENT
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Ministry of Agriculture set up National Centre
for Disaster Management at IIPA in 1995
NCDM scaled up to NIDM in October 2003 (as
part of Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India)
NIDM is a Statutory Body (Chapter 7 - DM Act,
2005)
4 Academic divisions and 4 multi-disciplinary
research cells
STATUTORY MANDATES
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Develop Training Modules, Undertake research &
documentation, Organize training programmes;
Formulate and implement a comprehensive Human
Resource Development Plan covering all aspects
of disaster management; for all the sectors,
Provide inputs in National Level Policy
formulation;
Guidance to training and research Institutes
for development of training & research programmes
MANDATES…….
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Training of faculty members of Disaster
Management /State training institutes
Develop educational materials for disaster
management including academic & professional
courses;
Promote awareness among stakeholders
including college or school teachers; technical
personnel & others associated with multi-hazard
mitigation, preparedness and response
Promotion of disaster management education at
higher/university, college, school level
KEY ACTIVITIES
in the context of Networking
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Joining Efforts with support of ATIs
Sharing Experience through Conference,
Workshops, Policy dialogues
Documenting events, e.g. Orissa Cyclone,
Gujarat EQ, Kumbakonam Fire, Meerut Fire,
Barmer Flood, Mumbai Floods etc
Editing Contents through knowledge Institutions
(IDKN Model)
E-Learning e.g. VLE, Moodle Platform WBI
Courses
E-Shishak will be launched soon.
ACHIEVEMENTS
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>400 training programmes & trained (both trainers & line
stakeholders)
South Asia Policy Dialogue in August 2006
First India Disaster Management Congress in Nov. 2006
International Workshop “Risk to Resilience –Strategic
Tools for DRR”
Central Sector Scheme; 30 “Disaster Management Centres”
in different States in India
Incident Command System and MEPP Trainings including
NDRF, Civil Defense, Paramilitary, etc.
Partnership
with
>50
international
and
national
institutions/agencies
On-line Training Programmes with World Bank Institute,
Washington.
National Programmes for Capacity Building of Engineers and
Architects
Second India Disaster Management Congress in Nov. 46. 2009 )(800 delegates including 100 international)
Related Policies
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Disaster Management Policy (Draft)
Environmental Policy
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Planning Commission Working Plan 2009-12
Environment & Forests
Land-use Policies
Agriculture Policy
Water Policy
Voluntary Sector Policy
WRD & Hydro-Power policy
Rural Development (land resources)
Housing Policy
Forest Policy
Statement of Climate Change
Right to Information
Map Policy
Programmes (examples)
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Disaster Risk Management Programme
National Emergency Communication Plan
Disaster Management Decision Support Programme
Natural Resources Data Management System NRDMS
Environmental Information System
APELL
JNURM
Integrated Coastal Zone Management
National River Conservation
National Wetland Programme
National Wasteland Programme
Rural employment
Mid-day meal scheme
Microfinance
Strategic Tools
Tools that help and/or implement policies
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Project Appraisal Process
Policy Appraisal – SEA (of policy, plan,
programmes)
EIA / REIA – DMP & EPP?
DRA as part of Project Appraisal process
Carrying capacity based planning
Risk based developmental planning
Cost-Benefit Analysis
Economic cost of impacts
Risk Auditing
Integration of Strategic Tools
Integrated Environmental Management as
Sustainable Solution to Disaster Risk Challenges
Disaster Risk Challenges
Socio-economic conflicts
NO
Vulnerability
DISASTERS
Poverty & inequality
Hazards/aggravation
Environmental
Management
Intervention
(SYSTEMS,
INFORMATION,
TECHNOLOGY,
PROGRAMMES)
CHANGES IN
ENVIRONMENTAL
RESOURCES
(Land/soil, Water, Air,
Vegetation, Animals,
Energy, Minerals,
Chemicals, Industry)
Natural /
Man-made
(-)
CHANGE IN
ENVIRONMENTAL
PROCESSES
(Geo-morphological,
hydrological, chemistry,
atmospheric,
biological…..)
Damages
Emergencies
Losses
Decision- Wisdom of Choice?
Disaster
Mitigation
Quality of
Life
(+)
YES
Stability/resilience
Prosperity and growth
Socio-economic development
Coping capacity
Sustainability and Safety
RISK
REDUCTION
THANK YOU
[email protected]