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International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) Deployment of Low Emissions Technologies for Electric Power Generation in Response to Climate Change WORKING GROUP REPORT - DRAFT 30 June 2010 About 69% CO2 emissions are energy related Energy-related CO2 emissions: grow by 57% by 2030 BAU Need >50% reduction in global CO2 emissions by 2050 (IPCC) Global power generation plants: 26% global CO2 emissions Report Focus: Deployment of low-emission technologies for supplying electrical energy Dr Vaughan Beck FTSE – ATSE (Australia) Dr John Burgess FTSE – ATSE (Australia) Professor Robert L. Evans FCAE - CAE (Canada) Prof Dr Frank Behrendt - acatech (Germany) Professor Hanasoge S. Mukunda - INAE (India) Dr Kozo Iizuka - EAJ (Japan) Professor Myungsook Oh - NAEK (Korea) Mr Willem du Preez - SAAE (South Africa) Professor John Loughhead FREng - RAE (UK) ATSE with support from other Academies put proposal to CAETS Council Meeting in Calgary, 2009 Council endorsed the Proposal ATSE (with financial support of the Australian government) convened a WG meeting in Tokyo, 2–3 March 2010 Meeting hosted by the EAJ. 1. Country reports presented & discussed 2. WG identified 7 Key Issues for deployment 3. Key Issues allocated to WG Academies to write sections of the report 4. Moved from: Evaluation of Strategies to Deploy Low Emission Technologies, to Key Issues for the Deployment of Low Low Emission Technologies. Introduction Section 1: Challenges of switching to low-carbon technologies Section 2: The electricity economy Section 3: The key technologies and their prospects Section 4: The role of renewables Section 5: New technology for electricity demand management Section 6: The special needs of developing economies Section 7: Role of government in low-carbon technology development Conclusions Country reports Biographies Global economy will grow four-fold by 2050 Massive technological and financial challenges to reduce CO2 levels Implementing low-carbon technologies will be costly, with high uncertainty and technical risk How to accelerate deployment of technologies? Need systematic evaluation of technologies Users will pay a substantially higher price Need for expert comment and evaluation of technical and financial viability -To inform public debate and government policy Financial modelling is a useful tool for evaluating critical energy generation and distribution infrastructure. Limited extant evidence to enable a systematic evaluation of technologies for electric power generation in response to climate change, other than levelised cost of electricity and real option values Energy Sources; Energy Carriers; End Use Movement to a new ‘Electricity Economy’ Electricity: the future energy carrier of choice for transportation The preferred means of road transport will likely be the plug-in hybrid vehicle Electrical generation capacity will need to expand still further to meet this new market. Load Levelling from transport Future low-carbon electricity generation: More efficient combustion technologies CCS Nuclear power Renewables Improved efficiency in the end-use of energy: Industrial Domestic energy users, and Transport Renewable energy - make an increasing contribution to global electricity supply However, the potential of renewable energy is inevitably limited by its variability and large land requirements Density of energy demand: cities Dependence on topography and natural endowments means that the contribution of renewables to national energy requirements will vary from country to country. Nature of renewable energy generation introduces new demands on the design of the whole energy supply system. ICT monitoring and control via smart grids, with demand management an essential component. Standards for physical interfaces, communication protocols and common data formats. Information flows: suite of new social issues and concerns privacy and individual freedom Additional infrastructure & costs. Developing economies expected show the fastest growth rates in energy requirements Each country will develop unique portfolio of electricity-generating technologies Need to rely for some time on fossil fuels Biofuels already important need more efficient production Smaller, distributed generation a feature of electrical energy supply Small reactors without on-site refuelling can be considered Short timeframes, high risks and large costs involved in deployment Governments need to take a leading role: - Basic R&D required before renewable energy can supply a significant fraction of future energy needs. - Taking innovative new technologies through to demonstration and deployment stages Global energy and climate issues calls for more international cooperation, supported by governments, for rapid deployment of low-carbon technology demonstration projects. CAETS has a major role for international collaboration in helping provide the world with secure, low-emission electricity at the lowest possible cost. Examples: Convey to governments and the public the serious dimension of the technical challenges ahead & the engineering challenge is huge! Advise governments that they must provide strong leadership & support for technology development and deployment Develop better ways for assessing generating technologies Encourage the accelerated development & deployment of key technologies Disseminate authoritative information about the benefits as well as the costs of competing electricity generating technologies; and Encourage governments to provide support to ensure technological success All Recommendations focus on future CAETS actions via collaboration with member academies & others Communicating the huge challenge posed by the future need for secure low-carbon electricity Encouraging government investment in RD&D Encourage development of models for financial evaluation of technologies Publicly disseminating technically sound information on energy technology issues Identifying priorities for further technology development 1. Status of the Draft Report: Convert to formal CAETS Report after comments 2. Future Action: -Expand the WG? &/ or - Extend the report? – None?