Transcript Economic Outlook and Opportunity

Niger
Economic Outlook and
Opportunity
FIRST UK/USA- NIGER INVESTMENT FORUM 2012
LONDON, JUNE 14, 2012
NESTOR COFFI, WORLD BANK COUNTRY
MANAGER NIGER
Overview
 Country Context
 Growth Perspectives
 Opportunities
 Challenges
 Conclusion
Country Context
 Restored vibrant democracy - oasis in the Sahel
 Huge development ambitions under Renaissance
Plan being translated under a comprehensive Plan
for Economic and Social Development
 Demonstrated resilience: maintained strong
macroeconomic stability despite the recurrent
external shocks
 Collaboration with regional and international
partners to deal with security risks arising from
conflict in Mali, Libya, and Nigeria
Country Context
Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
2005
3.7
2006
3.5
2007
2008
3.3
2009
2010
3.1
2011
2.9
2.7
2.5
Economic management
Public sector
management and
institutions
Structural policies
Policies for social
inclusion/equity
Overall CPIA
Country Context
Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
 Bank’s Annual Country Policy and Institutional
Assessment shows continuous improvement in
recent years
 Most progress was made on establishing sound
economic management and more recently on
improved policies for social inclusion and equity.
 Less progress was seen with respect to structural
policies and public sector management and
institutions
 These areas are now the focus of reforms with
support by the World Bank
Country Context – Doing Business in Niger
How far has Niger come in the areas measured by Doing Business?
Distance to frontier, 2005 and 2011
Country Context – Doing Business in Niger
Country Context – Doing Business in Niger
 Niger ranks low (173) on the World Bank’s Doing
Business Ranking
 Important to put into perspective – much of the poor
rankings are due to relative high cost of
procedures in relation to Niger’s extremely low per
capita income (but not in absolute terms)
 Niger has moved closer to the frontier in a
number of areas, including starting a business,
dealing with construction permits, getting credit, and
resolving insolvency
Country Context – Governance Indicators
Country Context – Governance Indicators
 The World Bank’s governance indicators are an
aggregate drawing on a variety of different assessments
 Over the past ten year’s, Niger has made significant
progress in enhancing government effectiveness, the
regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption
 Voice and accountability and political stability and
absence of violence have seen a deterioration. But the
new authorities have initiated corrective action (such as
vastly improved press freedom)
 Actions of new government not yet reflected in this
assessment, but could lead to significant improvement if
sustained.
Growth Perspectives
 Following the mining boom in the 1970’s Niger suffered two
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decades of stagnation and decline during the 80’s and 90’s
Macro-economic stabilization and a broad range of reforms
launched in the early 2000’s have supported the modes
relaunch of economic growth, averaging close to 5
percent during the past decade
A sustaining and deepening of structural reforms can provide
the basis for a growth acceleration to catch up to
regional economies
Petrol and uranium industries will be key drivers of
economic growth over the next three to five years
To sustain growth momentum, private sector led
diversification of the economy is critical
Opportunities
 Private sector is underdevelopped and productivity is low, with
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tremendous potential to catch up to neighboring countries through
increased trade, foreign direct investment, and skills development
Government’s ambitious program for investment and reform with a
strong focus on inclusive growth would provide the foundation for
this.
Initial reforms to strengthen private –public dialogue and
cooperation are promising, including the relaunch of the National
Private Investors Council and the development of a PPP framework
Regional integration within the WAEMU, trade with Nigeria, and
stabilization and development in Arab countries provides significant
opportunities for Niger
Niger joined MIGA – opportunities to provide coverage against
political risks
Opportunities – Extractive Industries
 World Bank is supporting government’s efforts to
strengthen the policy and institutional
regime for the sector
 Significant potential for further discoveries
in and beyond uranium and oil –
 Significant potential for the development of
mining and oil sector related activities
Opportunities Agriculture and Livestock
 Niger is a major producer of livestock, but currently
there is little value added and most exports are on
hoof to Nigeria
 World Bank supported rehabilitation and expansion
of abattoirs and improved sector policies will
create new opportunities for growth in the sector
 Niger produces several high quality agricultural
niche products, including onion, gum arabica,
sesame, tiger nuts, and cow peas
 The Word Bank supports improvements in the
value chain of these products to foster exports
Opportunities – Infrastructure Development
 Power sector – Kandadji Hydro-project is underway with
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financing from government, the Bank, and a group of other
development agencies and financiers
Expansion and improved maintenance of road
infrastructure remains a priority of government with
support from Bank and other donors
Mobile telephone system has expanded significantly in
recent year with several operators, but with considerable
scope for further expansion
A railway connection to Benin and Burkina is under
consideration
Newly adopted regulatory and institutional regime for
PPPs provides a strong basis for private sector involvement
Challenges
 Improving governance – Bank is supporting public financial
management reforms, development of an anti-corruption strategy,
procurement reforms
 Improving the Business Environment – Bank and IFC are
providing support for the development of an action plan to improve
the business environment and support the implementation of key
reforms (tax administration, investment code, export and import
regime, etc)
 Strengthening Infrastructure – investment support to power,
road, and water development combined with support for reforms to
ensure greater efficiency
 Building Human Resources – a project to strengthen the
development of skills for economic growth is under preparation,
focused on strengthening the link between technical and vocational
education and training and the private sector
Conclusion
 Niger offers significant opportunities for
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investment and trade
World Bank is committed to support ambitious
government agenda through the combination of
knowledge – partnership – financing
Comprehensive support by members of the
World Bank Group: IDA, IFC, MIGA
Priorities for next three years to be defined in
consultation with Government and local and
international stakeholders
Fostering of partnerships with government, private
sector, civil society, and other development is critical for
positive impact of World Bank support