Presidential Election

Formal Qualifications

• • • At least 35 Years of Age Natural Born Citizen 14 Years of Residence

Informal Qualifications of President

• • • • • • Name Recognition Experience in politics or Leadership role A pleasing appearance on TV – Nixon’s sweaty debate No Skeletons in closet Resident of big state Support of major political party • Balanced Ticket

2012 Presidential Candidates

• • • • •

Republicans Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Rick Santorum Ron Paul

• •

Democrats Barack Obama

Primaries and Caucuses

• Primaries/Caucuses – Party process to narrow the list of candidates.

– 42 states hold primaries.

– Generally the party out of power has the more hard fought process.

– Caucuses are the oldest method for picking convention delegates.

– http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D5FzCeV0ZFc

Conventions

– Each party calls a convention in the summer of the election year.

– The party tells each state how many delegates they may send.

– The number of delegates is based on the states electoral votes.

» 2012 – Democrats- Charlotte – Republicans- Tampa

Platform

• • • Each party sets a platform at their convention The platform is a list of principles and policy positions on key issues.

They are often general in an attempt to attract the most voters.

– Lower Taxes – Better Schools

Electoral College

• • • • President officially elected by electors.

Electors are = # of senators and representatives in a state (Higher population more representatives.) On Election Day the voters elect the # of electors to which their state is entitled.

Candidates must receive a majority- 270 of the 538 total electoral votes.

History

• The structure of the Electoral College can be traced to the Centurial Assembly system of the Roman Republic, and the term “elector” to the later Holy Roman Empire.

– An

elector

was one of a number of princes of the various German states within the Holy Roman Empire who had a right to participate in the election of the German emperor.

• The term "college" (from the Latin

collegium

), refers to a body of persons that act as a unit.

• In the early 1800's, the term "

electoral college

" came into general use as the unofficial designation for the group of citizens selected to cast votes for President and Vice President. • It was first written into Federal law in 1845, and today the term appears in 3 U.S.C. section 4, in the section heading and in the text as "college of electors."

History

Founders started electoral

The Electoral College was established by the founders as a compromise between election for the president by Congress and election by popular vote. Alexander Hamilton was among the first to write about the concept of electors in the Federalist Papers in 1788. The electoral college assumed its present constitutional form in 1804.

The term "electoral college" does not appear in the Constitution. Article II of the Constitution and the 12th Amendment refer to "electors," but not to the "electoral college." The similarities between the Electoral College and classical institutions are not accidental. Many of the Founding Fathers were well schooled in ancient history and its lessons.

Why do we have the Electoral College?

• Three reasons: – 1. The framers of the Constitution feared

direct democracy

. Hamilton and the other founders did not trust the population to make the right choice.

• “election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station” » – James Madison

Why do we have the Electoral College?

• Three reasons: – 2. The founding fathers wanted to protect the interests of

smaller states

and

rural areas

– 3. Electoral College helps dilute the effect of votes from

densely populated centers

whose issues and concerns may be different from the rest of the country

How Does It Work?

• Most people believe that when you vote in the General Election in November, you are casting your vote for the President of the United States.

WRONG!

• When you cast your vote in November, you are actually voting for a “slate” (group) of electors, who are in turn pledged to vote for a specific candidate in December.

Wisconsin

• Wisconsin has 10 electors – 8 Representatives – 2 Senators • Each party selects 10 electors.

– Selected based on loyalty to party • If their party gets the most votes on election day their electors vote.

Changes to Electoral vote based on 2010 Census

Advertising Money Spent ($= 1,000,000)

(September 26-November 2, 2004) http://www.slideshare.net/profseitz/chapter-10-electoral-college

Number of Presidential Candidate visits

(September 26- November 2, 2004)

2008 Election Results

• http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/o bama_vs_mccain/ • • • • 2012 Electoral College Map http://www.270towin.com/ http://www.wsbtv.com/s/2012election/map/inte ractive-electoral/ http://www.harcourtschool.com/activity/electora l/

2000 Election

• Is it possible to win the most popular votes but lose the election? • Plurality – One more vote than anyone else in the race.

Presidential Election of 2000, Electoral and Popular Vote Summary

Principal Candidates for President and Vice President:

Republican —George W. Bush; Richard B. Cheney

(winner) Democratic —Albert A. Gore, Jr.; Joseph I. Lieberman Green —Ralph Nader; Winona LaDuke Alabama Alaska Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware DC Florida Georgia Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota 634,373 622,332 872,492 927,871 286,616 813,797 878,502 1,953,139 1,109,659 572,844 1,189,924 240,178 433,862 301,575 273,559 1,284,173 286,417 2,403,374 1,631,163 174,852

George W. Bush Popular vote

941,173

%

56% 59 167,398 781,652 472,940 4,567,429 51 51 42 883,748 561,094 137,288 18,073 2,912,790 1,419,720 137,845 336,937 2,019,421 1,245,836 51 38 42 9 49 55 37 67 43 57 48 58 57 53 44 40 33 46 46 58 50 58 62 50 48 40 48 35 56 61 638,517 399,276 638,898 792,344 319,951 1,145,782 1,616,487 2,170,418 1,168,266 404,614 1,111,138 137,126 231,780 279,978 266,348 1,788,850 286,783 4,107,697 1,257,692 95,284

Albert A. Gore, Jr. Popular vote

692,611

%

42% 28 79,004 685,341 422,768 5,861,203 45 46 53 738,227 816,015 180,068 171,923 2,912,253 1,116,230 205,286 138,637 2,589,026 901,980 42 56 55 85 49 43 56 28 55 41 49 37 41 45 49 56 60 51 48 41 47 33 33 46 47 56 48 60 43 33 29,374 36,086 23,192 20,473 37,127 53,768 173,564 84,165 126,696 8,122 38,515 24,437 24,540 15,008 22,198 94,554 21,251 244,030 — 9,486

Ralph Nader Popular vote

18,323

%

1% 10 28,747 45,645 13,421 418,707 3 1 4 91,434 64,452 8,307 10,576 97,488 13,432 2 21,623 12,292 2 103,759 18,531 2 5 4 3 5 2 .5 6 2 2 .8 2 3 2 1 6 3 6 2 5 .8 2 6 4 2 4 3 4 4 — 3

Electoral votes G

8 25 13 4 12 9

R

3 8 6 6 8 9 7 11 3 5 4 4 14 3

D

54 8 3 2 1 4 22 7 4 10 12 18 10 15 5 33

2000 Election Results

Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming

Total

2,351,209 744,337 713,577 2,281,127 130,555 785,937 190,700 1,061,949 3,799,639 515,096 119,775 1,437,490 1,108,864 336,475 1,237,279 147,947

50,456,002

60 51 59 67 41 52 50 60 47 46 32 57 45 52 48 68

47.87%

2,186,190 474,276 720,342 2,485,967 249,508 565,561 118,804 981,720 2,433,746 203,053 149,022 1,217,290 1,247,652 50 295,497 1,242,987 60,481

50,999,897

46 48 28

48.38%

38 47 38 26 51 44 46 38 47 51 61 41 117,857 — 77,357 103,392 25,052 20,200 — 19,781 137,994 35,850 20,374 59,398 103,002 10,680 94,070 4,625 2

2,882,955

3 — 5 2 6 1 — 1 7 2 2 5 4 2 4 2

2.74%

21 8 7 23 4 8 3 11 32 5 3 13 11 5 11 3

271 266

Electoral College Flaws

• • • Winner of Popular vote may lose the election – 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 Tie or less than 270 goes to the house – 1800 – 1824 Faithless Elector – 11 out of over 21,000 vote

The Pivotal States:

• In the 2000 election, Al Gore lost to George W. Bush by only 5 electoral votes. – In four states (NM, OR, FL & MN), the popular vote was decided by a

margin of less than 2%

.

– Nationwide, the vote was

decided by less than 1%.

–

In New Mexico, the winning margin was only 366 people.

• If only 366 voters in New Mexico had voted differently, or if 366 more Democrats had voted at all, Al Gore would have won the 2000 election.

•

The “Nader” Issue

Does your vote count?

Consider the impact of Ralph Nader’s campaign on the Democratic party’s vote in the 2000 election. –

Nader received about 3 percent of the popular vote.

–

Most Nader votes would otherwise have voted Democrat (for Al Gore).

–

Democrats accused Nader of “handing the election to Bush” by splitting the Democratic vote.

–

Was this true? Consider the chart on the next page.

The True “Swing States”

http://www.slideshare.net/darkyla/electoral-college-10778363 • If the popular vote in

ANY ONE

of these states had go ne to Al Gore, he would have won the election.

• If Nader had not been a candidate and the Nader voters had supported Gore, ALL of the electoral votes in these states would have gone to Gore.

100% Republican 100% Democrat

Most Popular Proposed reforms

• District Plan • Proportional Plan • Direct Popular Election

Credits

• • http://www.slideshare.net/darkyla/electoral college-10778363 http://www.slideshare.net/profseitz/chapter 10-electoral-college