Transcript transitionculture.org
Transition London
From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.
September 16 th 2008. Rob Hopkins.
Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network
The Hirsch Report, 2005
“...
the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking ” (emphasis added) (Hirsch 2005).
4 Energy Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society, Technology & Markets
3 1 Rapid Depletion
and/or early peaking
4 Reactive Response
Markets, Technology, Society & Government
2 Slow Depletion
and/or later peaking
4 Energy Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society, Technology & Markets
Rapid Depletion “Lean Economy” *
aka “Powerdown” and/or early peaking
“Collapse”
aka “Mad Max” aka “Easter Island” aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
Slow Depletion “Burnout”
aka “Climate Chaos” aka “Business as Usual”
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology, Society & Government and/or later peaking
* per David Fleming
Peak Oil & Climate Change
PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels tar sands and non conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling
PLANNED RELOCALISATION
local resilience
carbon reduction
consume closer to home
produce closer to home
play closer to home
decentralised energy infrastructure
the Great Reskilling
localised food
energy descent plans
local medicinal capacity
local currencies
CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et al.) climate engineering carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading climate adaptation improved transportation logistics nuclear power
1. Positive Visioning
“It will be a huge wrench to leave all this behind, but I have always wanted to live in the country. Our new house will be an eco home. We are going from one extreme to another”.
Anna Ryder Richardson Hello! magazine 1 st January 2008
2. Help People Access Good Information and Trust Them to Make Good Decisions
3. Inclusion and Openness
Working with Business Oil Vulnerability Analysis.
Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses.
Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group.
Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow. Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce
Working with Local Landowners.
Estates in Transition conference. June 11 th 2007.
4. Enabling Sharing and Networking
5. Building Resilience.
© Totnes Image Bank
George Heath.
A Powerdown Pioneer.
© Totnes Image Bank
Food - Urban Gardens in Cuba
Downtown Havana
“…localisation stands, at best, at the limits of practical possibility, but it has the decisive argument in its favour that there will be no alternative” David Fleming
6. Inner and Outer Transition
Up and Running
Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health / Housing / Education / Transport
7. Subsidiarity: decision making at the appropriate level
The Purpose of Transition....
“To support community-led responses to peak oil and climate change, building resilience and happiness”.
Totnes, Penwith, Kinsale, Ireland, Ivybridge, Falmouth, Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud, Ashburton, Ottery St. Mary, Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean, Nottingham, Wrington, Brighton&Hove, Portobello, Scotland, Market Harborough, Sunshine Coast, Australia, West Kirby, Llandeilo, Wales, Bro Ddyfi, Wales, Whitstable, Marsden & Slaithwaite, Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight, Waiheke Island, New Zealand, Orewa, New Zealand, Dunbar, Scotland, Rhayader, Wales, Seaton, Bath, Exeter, Isle of Man, Canterbury, Kapiti District, New Zealand, Carbon Neutral Biggar, a Transition Town, Presteigne, Wolverton, Leicester, Holywood, Westcliff-on-Sea, Isles of Scilly, Liverpool South, Norwich, Tring, Crediton, Boulder, CO, USA, North Howe, Lampeter, South Petherton, Armidale, NSW, Chichester, bell, VIC, Bellingen, NSW, Berkhamsted, Forres, Sandpoint, ID, USA, Opotiki Coast, New Zealand , Newcastle, NSW, Chepstow, Coventry, Bungay, Nelson, Hervey Bay, QLD, Mersea Island, Maidenhead, Ladock & Grampound Road, Leek, Horsham .... and Ambridge!
Some Things that Transition Initiatives Do....
Have Official Unleashings....
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Plant Nut Trees in Odd Places...
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.
Make Food Directories....
Print Their Own Money...
The Lewes Pound
The Brixton Brick?
Share Gardens....
Try to Do Something about Being So Useless...
Skilling Up for Powerdown.
Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning …
Engage their local government
World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors Endorsed by Totnes Town Council Contributions to Local Development Framework.
Learn Their History...
Buy Solar Panels Together...
Totnes Solar Thermal Challenge
Set Up Energy Companies...
Become Developers....
Create Energy Descent Action Plans...
Start with a vision and then backcast Incorporate Transition Tales Base it on current planning documents.
...and in the City?
You aren’t alone...
We’ve Been Here Before
...What Happened Then?
www.transitionculture.org
www.transitiontowns.org/Totnes
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“ Now Available!
The Transition Handbook : from oil dependency to local resilience ”
published by Green Books