Transcript Futures Thinking: 4 scenarios to help guide our transition to a post-oil society. Bryn Davidson DRAFT June 12, 2006 DRAFT: June 12, 2006

Futures Thinking:
4 scenarios to help guide our
transition to a post-oil society.
Bryn Davidson
DRAFT June 12, 2006
DRAFT: June 12, 2006
Association for the
Study of Peak Oil & Gas
International
Energy Agency
'Pessimists' vs. 'Optimists': Two divergent views of the future.
Q: How to create a desirable future in the face of these mixed messages?
A: Futures Thinking
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captions - J.J.C Bruggink in Four European Energy Futures
Technology and Markets
Belief:
Belief:
Technology and markets
won’t compensate for
the depletion of
conventional fossil fuels.
Technology and markets
will compensate for
the depletion of
conventional fossil fuels.
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The Globalized Economy
Belief:
Belief:
The globalized economy
will have to contract. It
will be supplanted by
local and regional
economies.
The globalized economy
will continue to grow and
will be the mainstay into
the next century.
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Climate Change
Belief:
Belief:
As we run out of cheap oil
and gas - and start to get
desperate - then we’ll
probably burn anything:
coal, forests, crops....
Climate Change...
hmmm... well we’re
concerned... but we don’t
want to damage the
economy.
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Oil & Gas
peak early
& deplete
rapidly
Peak Oil and Climate Change are
unprecedented global challenges: defined by
uncertainty while requiring decades of
dedicated effort to address.
We can be reactive
(leaving our choices to the market).
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..or proactive
(making investments today that will pay back
in either version of the future)
Oil & Gas
peak later
and deplete
slowly
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Markets & Technology
4 Energy
Scenarios
1
2
Rapid
Depletion
Slow
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
and/or later
peaking
4
3
Reactive Response
Technology, Markets,
Society & Government
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* per David Fleming
4 Energy
Scenarios
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Markets & Technology
“Lean Economy” *
aka “Powerdown”
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
Rapid
Depletion
Slow
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
and/or later
peaking
“Collapse”
“Burnout”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
Reactive Response
Technology, Markets,
Society & Government
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* per David Fleming
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Markets & Technology
Example Scenario:
Conventional oil peaks before 2010
but the depletion rate is buffered by
non-conventional sources and rising
prices.
Governments reform tax laws around
energy and the environment.
Carbon sequestration allows for the
clean use of fossil fuels.
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
Slow
Depletion
and/or later
peaking
The 'Green' sector shows tremendous
growth, while older industries decay.
Developing third-world economies
'leap-frog' to sustainable economies.
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* per David Fleming
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
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* per David Fleming
Example Scenario:
Non-conventional fossil fuels offset
depletion masking any overall 'peak'.
The price of oil fluctuates around $70
for several decades and drives a
transition to coal, nuclear, and
unsustainably sourced biomass.
CO2 emissions skyrocket, while
habitats , farmland, and forests are
decimated in a rush for wood and
biomass.
Super storms, rising sea levels, and
desertification cause massive refugee
and health crises.
Slow
Depletion
“Burnout”
and/or later
peaking
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
Reactive Response
Technology, Markets,
Government & Society
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* per David Fleming
“Burnout”
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
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* per David Fleming
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Markets & Technology
Example Scenario:
“Lean Economy” *
aka “Powerdown”
Rapid
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
Conventional oil/gas peaks around 2010
and depletes surprisingly fast.
Governments enact their rapidconservation plans drafted in ‘06.
Political and religious groups come
together to support international
cooperation and help to avert armed
conflict and the widespread use of dirty
fuels.
The global economy transitions (with the
help of a few price and supply shocks)
from a global-centric to a regional and
local-centric model.
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* per David Fleming
“Lean Economy” *
aka “Powerdown”
DRAFT: June 12, 2006
* per David Fleming
Example Scenario:
Conventional oil peaks before 2010 and depletes rapidly (faster than substitutes and new
sources can be scaled up).
High prices cause 'demand destruction' but the base level of demand is too inelastic to
contract voluntarily at the rate of depletion. Natural gas peaks and declines rapidly in many
regions (including North America) as LNG growth fails to offset depletion. Multiple
recessions eventually lead to negative growth (economic depression).
Rapid
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
“Collapse”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
Reactive Response
Technology, Markets,
Government & Society
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Nations battle for resources
abroad and fight unrest at
home. Unemployment soars,
global travel and the global
economy collapses, health and
food crises are rampant.
Populations contract from lower
birth rates and lower life
expectancies.
Governments revert to citystates while the former suburbs
become lawless salvage yards.
“Collapse”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
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4 possible
futures.
Which are
most probable?
Which are
preferable?
How to make the
best decisions
today?
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A Few Thoughts on
Transition Dynamics
Markets are fantastic tools for bringing about new technologies
and innovations – but they are a poor mechanism for long term
planning or the preservation of social justice.
The global economy will bring ‘substitutes’ for oil and gas to the
market, but a few questions remain:
Question 1: “Will we be willing to to pay more, or potentially do less,
to bring on clean substitutes?”
Question 2: “Can substitutes scale up quickly enough – relative to the
depletion of conventional resources?”
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A Few (more) Thoughts on
Transition Dynamics
Changing what we do is hard and takes a long time...
...unless there is a ‘crisis’.
In a crisis, people can come together in remarkable ways...
...or fight to the death to preserve the life they’ve come to expect.
The transition away from cheap oil and gas will likely be
punctuated by a number of economic and environmental crises...
...crises that will bring about step-changes in what we expect.
Our expectations and decisions are never purely rational...
...they are also emotional and cultural
(i.e. we will lean towards what is exciting and/or familiar)
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(even more) Thoughts on
Transition Dynamics
The more proactive we are
– the more likely we are to create a preferred future.
On the path toward creating our preferred future
we will have to make hard decisions
– like voluntarily paying more for clean energy vs. dirty energy.
To have a broad impact, these decisions should probably unfold
from a broad consensus – and that broad consensus needs to
unfold from an inclusive dialogue.
An inclusive dialogue needs to be big enough
to encompass many world-views
– and different views of the future.
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Coming Soon... from futures thinking to dynamic planning:
How would these future scenarios unfold at the regional & municipal level?
Can we quantify our vulnerability to oil/gas shortage or price shocks?
Can we create an iterative/adapative energy model for the region?
Can we unfold real planning and design goals from that energy model?
Can our industrial economy actually begin to have a net-positive impact?
What are the most effective leverage points (pricing, regulations)?
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Futures Thinking:
4 scenarios to help guide our
transition to a post-oil society.
Thanks, in advance, for your feedback
on this draft...
Bryn Davidson
604.728.0606
[email protected]
www.dynamiccities.org
DRAFT: June 12, 2006