Transcript House Committee on Redistricting and the House Committee

Update on Texas
Demographic Characteristics and Trends
Texas Department of Insurance
Texas Consumer Health
Assistance Program
January 26, 2012
Austin, TX
Growing States, 2000-2010
2000
Population*
United States
2010
Population*
Numerical
Change
2000-2010
Percent
Change
2000-2010
281,421,906
308,745,538
27,323,632
9.7%
Texas
20,851,820
25,145,561
4,293,741
20.6%
California
33,871,648
37,253,956
3,382,308
10.0%
Florida
15,982,378
18,801,310
2,818,932
17.6%
Georgia
8,186,453
9,687,653
1,501,200
18.3%
North Carolina
8,049,313
9,535,483
1,486,170
18.5%
Arizona
5,130,632
6,392,017
1,261,385
24.6%
15.7% of numerical
change in U.S.
Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts.
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Total Population by County, 2010
Total Population
Number of People
82 - 9,999
10,000 - 24,999
Population % Change, 2000 to 2010
Percent Change
-21% - -10.1%
-10% - -0.1%
25,000 - 99,999
0% - 24.9%
100,000 - 999,999
25% - 54.9%
1,000,000 - 4,092,459
55% - 81.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Total Population and Components of Population
Change in Texas, 1950-2009
Percent Change
Due to
Year*
Population
Numerical
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
Percent
Change
Natural
Increase
Net
Migration
1950
7,711,194
--
--
--
--
--
--
1960
9,579,677
1,868,483
1,754,652
113,831
24.2
93.91
6.09
1970
11,196,730
1,617,053
1,402,683
214,370
16.9
86.74
13.26
1980
14,229,191
3,032,461
1,260,794 1,771,667
27.1
41.58
58.42
1990
16,986,510
2,757,319
1,815,670
941,649
19.9
65.85
34.15
2000
20,851,820
3,865,310
1,919,281 1,946,029
22.8
49.65
50.35
2009
24,782,302
3,930,484
2,124,124 1,781,785
18.8
54.04
45.33
*All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the
U.S. Census Bureau.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.
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Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas,
2000 to 2009
250,000
International
State-to-State
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. 2009 Estimates.
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Percent of Migrants to Texas by
Race and Ethnicity, 2000-2009
100%
52% of all migrants were
international
5%
90%
80%
23%
18%
12%
8%
15%
70%
60%
67% of all
migrants
28%
50%
50%
40%
40%
Other
30%
Black
20%
10%
44%
24%
33%
Hispanic
White
0%
Net domestic
International
migration
migration
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
Total
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total
numbers of domestic and international migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population
Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau.
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States with Largest Unauthorized
Immigrant Populations, 2010
State
California
Texas
Florida
New York
New Jersey
Illinois
Georgia
Arizona
Estimate
(thousands)
2,550
1,650
825
625
550
525
425
400
Range
(2,350 - 2,750)
(1,450 - 1,850)
(725 - 950)
(525 - 725)
(425 - 650)
(425 - 625)
(300 - 550)
(275 - 500)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population
Survey (February 1, 2011)
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Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000
2010
Hispanic
or Latino
38%
Hispanic
or Latino
32%
NH
White
45%
NH White
53%
NH Other
4%
NH Black
11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census counts.
NH
Other
6%
NH Black
11%
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Population by County, 2010
Non-Hispanic White
Number of People
Hispanic
Number of People
60 - 9,999
18 - 9,999
10,000 - 49,999
10,000 - 49,999
50,000 - 99,999
50,000 - 99,999
100,000 - 499,999
100,000 - 499,999
500,000 - 1,349,646
500,000 - 1,671,540
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Population by County, 2010
Non-Hispanic Asian
Non-Hispanic Black
Number of People
Number of People
0 - 9,999
0 - 9,999
10,000 - 49,999
10,000 - 49,999
50,000 - 99,999
50,000 - 99,999
100,000 - 499,999
100,000 - 149,999
500,000 - 754,258
150,000 - 249,853
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Percent Change in Population by County,
2000 to 2010
Non-Hispanic White
Percent Change
Hispanic
Percent Change
-51.4% - -10.1%
-29.4% - -0.1%
-10% - -0.1%
0% - 24.9%
0% - 24.9%
25% - 54.9%
55% - 62.1%
Less than 100 population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
25% - 54.9%
55% - 99.9%
100% - 165.7%
Less than 100 population
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Percent Change in Population by County,
2000 to 2010
Non-Hispanic Black
Non-Hispanic Asian
Percent Change
-49% - -10.1%
Percent Change
-10% - -0.1%
-27.9% - -10.1%
0% - 24.9%
-10% - -0.1%
25% - 74.9%
0% - 24.9%
75% - 3000%
25% - 54.9%
Less than 100 population
55% - 697%
less than 100 population
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Projected Racial and Ethnic Population
Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040
70%
60%
50%
40%
Anglo
30%
Black
Hispanic
20%
Other
10%
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
0%
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario.
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Texas Population Pyramids by
Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Median age
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
14
Texas Population Pyramid, 2010
Median age
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Texas Population 18 and Older by Race/Ethnicity,
2000 and 2010
Change
Race/Ethnicity
2000
2010
Numeric
Percent of Population
Percent
2000
2010
NH White
8,426,166
9,074,684
648,518
7.7
56.3
49.6
Hispanic
4,282,901
6,143,144
1,860,243
43.4
28.6
33.6
NH Black
1,631,448
2,076,282
444,834
27.3
10.9
11.4
NH Asian
415,219
716,968
301,749
72.7
2.8
3.9
NH Other
209,327
268,659
59,332
28.3
1.4
1.5
14,965,061
18,279,737
3,314,676
22.2
100.0
100.0
Texas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
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Texas Population Under 18 by Race/Ethnicity,
2000 and 2010
Change
Numeric
Percent of Population
Percent
2000
2010
Race/Ethnicity
2000
2010
NH White
2,507,147
2,322,661
-184,486
-7.4
42.6
33.8
Hispanic
2,386,765
3,317,777
931,012
39.0
40.5
48.3
NH Black
732,807
810,543
77,736
10.6
12.5
11.8
NH Asian
139,226
231,458
92,232
66.3
2.4
3.4
NH Other
120,814
183,385
62,571
51.8
2.0
2.7
5,886,759
6,865,824
979,065
16.6
100.0
100.0
Texas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data.
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Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Race/Ethnicity, 2010
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
NH White
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Summary File 1 Data.
Hispanic
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Population Aged 65 Years and Older in
Texas Counties, 2010
Percent of total population
Population 65 years plus
Number of People
Percent
12 - 9,999
6.9% - 9.9%
10,000 - 24,999
10% - 14.9%
25,000 - 49,999
15% - 19.9%
50,000 - 99,999
20% - 24.9%
100,000 - 333,487
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 Summary File 1 Data.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
25% - 31.1%
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Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in
Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
2000
2040
Percent
5% - 9.9%
10% - 14.9%
15% - 19.9%
20% - 24.9%
25% - 30.7%
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario.
Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Projected Population Among Older Texans
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
Age 65-74
Age 75-85
Age 85+
500,000
0
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario.
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Projection of Ethnicity of Texas Population
Aged 65 Years and Older, 2000 to 2040
80.00
Anglo
Hispanic
70.00
African American
60.00
Other
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
2000
2010
Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario.
2020
2030
2040
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Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicity
and Type of Insurance, 2010
70
66
61
60
52
50
45
37
40
32
30
20
25
29
34
23
26
20
22
15
14
10
0
White
Black
None
Hispanic
Public
Asian
Other
Private
Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have
private insurance.
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Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data
Percent Health Insurance Coverage
By Immigrant Status & Type of Insurance, 2010
70
62
60
52
50
50
40
20
29
27
30
26
23
19
11
10
0
None
Public
Native
Naturalized
Private
Non-Citizen
Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have
private insurance.
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Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data
Percent Under 65 Years of Age Who Are Uninsured
by County, 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, 2009.
Map produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Percent Under 19 Years of Age Who Are
Uninsured by County, 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, 2009.
Map produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Percent at or below 138% of Poverty Who Are
Uninsured by County, 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. Small Area Health Insurance Estimates, 2009.
Map produced by the Office of the State Demographer.
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Percent of Texans Reporting a Self-Care
Limitation or Any Disability by Age, 2010
90
77.98
80
70
Self-Care
Limitation
60
52.83
50
40
34.88
32.16
30
22.12
20
16.19
8.49
10
0.9
4.2
1.62
4.84
7.45
0
18 and Under
19 to 55
56 to 65
66 to 75
76 to 85
Source: Office of the State Demographer tabulation of U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2010
Over 85
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Projected Growth of the 65+ Population Reporting a
Self-Care Limitation, 2000 to 2040, Assuming
Constant Age/Sex/Race/Ethnic Rates of Disability
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
2000
2010
Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario
2020
2030
2040
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Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by
Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario 30
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes
by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040
8,000,000
6,000,000
Total
4,000,000
Latino
Anglo
African American
2,000,000
Other
0
Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario 31
Projected Percent of the Adult Population with
Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040
2010
LE 15%
2040
15-20%
20-25%
25-30%
30-37.5%
Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario 32
Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010
Physician Rate Change,
2000 to 2010
Physician Rate
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000 Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001
'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
0
-3 to -0.5
.01-.5
-0.49 to -.001
.51-1
0
1.1-1.5
.001 to .5
1.51-4
.51-2.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts and Texas Medical Board (physicians).
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Physicians per 100,000 by
Metro & Border Status for Counties, 2009
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
175
159
110
95
53
Not Border
Border
Not Border
Border
Non-Metro
Non-Metro
Metropolitan
Metropolitan
Total
2009
Sources: Census 2009 Estimates
Department of State Health Services, Health Professions Resource Center Database
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Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65
Years
and
Olderaged
by County,
2008
Physcians per
1,000
persons
65+
'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p
0
GT 0 - LE 5
GT 5 - LE 10
GT 10 - LE 20
GT 20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2008Population Estimate (population), and Texas Medical Board (physicians).
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Physicians in Direct Patient Care, 2004 and 2009
Physicians in
Direct Patient
Care
2004
2009
Increase
Percent
Primary Care
15,374
16,830
1,456
9.6
Specialist
19,558
22,544
2,986
15.3
Total
Population
(Millions)
34,932
39,374
4,442
12.7
22.4
24.8
2.4
10.5
Source: Tabulation of Texas Medical Board, Physician Licensure Database; Database maintained and supplied by Department of State
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Health Services, Center for Health Statistics, Health Professions Resource Center
Demographics & Destiny
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Demographics & Destiny
•
•
•
•
•
Texas is growing.
Texas is becoming more urban.
Texas is becoming more diverse.
Texas is young but aging.
All of these factors along with public policy
changes will influence the number of
individuals in need of insurance.
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Contact
Office of the State Demographer
Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://osd.state.tx.us
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