Transcript Document
Water scarcity in the Arab world: how to get from ‘crisis’ to ‘sustainable’? Rania el Masri, Ph.D. Environment and Energy Policy Specialist Cairo, May 8, 2012 [email protected] 2 State of our water commons 3 Total renewable water resources per capita, 1958-2007 (m3/capita/yr) Algeria Bahrain Djibouti Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia UAE Yemen 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 4 Total renewable water resources per capita (2008) (m3/capita/yr) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Water scarcity level (< 1000) 1000 Water Crisis level (< 500) 500 0 Absolute water scarcity level (< 165) 5 Total renewable water resources per capita (2008 and 2016) (m3/capita/yr) 4,000.00 3,500.00 3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 Water scarcity level (< 1000) Water Crisis level (< 500) 500.00 Absolute water scarcity level (< 165) - 6 20000 18000 Freshwater availability: 1955-2025 (m3/capita/yr) 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1955 1990 2000 2025 7 Annual per capita water supply; 1960-1999; projections for 2025 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1960 1999 2025 8 Available Renewable Water Resources per capita, 1950 annual per capita water supply (m3/capita/yr) 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 9 Population Percent change, 1961-2007 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 10 Although fertility rates in the Arab world are declining… Total fertility in the Arab world: 1970 - 2010 11 Population growth (millions): 1970 - 2025 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 2001 2025 12 population growth: 1950-2050 Arab region: among the fastest population growth rates (> 2%/year) GCC population: to double by 2040 Maghreb population: to double by 2060 13 State of our water commons Decreasing supply Aquifers and groundwater already heavily mined Examples: Yemen, Saudi Arabia; lesser extent: Egypt, Algeria, Jordan, Lebanon Increasing demand (decreasing supply per capita) Population growth Increasing urbanization, Increasing economic and social demands Plus Projected impacts of climate change decreasing supply and increasing demand 14 Impact of climate change on water availability in Middle East and North Africa in 2050 Source: Milly et al., published in Nature. 15 State of our water commons: leakage 16 Water supply and uses For the Near East as a region, it is estimated that only 30% of the flood water used in irrigation ever reaches the crop. (UNDP, HDR2006) 17 Unaccounted-for Water (%) (2010) [water lost via poor infrastructure] 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: World Water Intelligence, 2011 18 Impacts of our water crisis 19 Impact of water crisis: who gets water? 70 60 Population without access to improved water sources (2010) 50 40 30 20 10 UAE Qatar Lebanon Kuwait Egypt Jordan Comoros Tunisia Syria Oman Djibouti OPT Morocco Algeria Iraq Sudan Yemen Libya Mauritania Somalia 0 100 90 Internal differences in access to improved water sources (2010) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Djibouti Iraq Morocco Oman Rural Somalia Urban Sudan Yemen 20 Impact of water crisis: whose water is clean? 80 70 Population without access to improved sanitation facilities (2010) 60 50 40 30 20 10 Qatar Lebanon Kuwait Oman UAE Jordan Libya Syria Egypt Algeria OPT Tunisia Iraq Morocco Yemen Djibouti Comoros Sudan Mauritania Somalia 0 100 90 80 Internal differences in access to improved sanitation facilities (2010) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Rural Urban 21 (Potential) impacts of decreased supply and Increased demand Direct impacts … increased cost … decreased quality (eg: increased salinization) Indirect impacts … increased poverty … increased health risks …risk to livelihoods in agricultural sector Decreased ecosystem health 22 Responses to our water crisis: getting to sustainable 23 DRIVERS HUMAN SOCIETY Population growth PRESSURES Increased consumption IMPACTS Increased resource exploitation RESPONSES Climate change Mitigation and adaptation Agricultural mismanagement State: water security crisis Decreasing supply Decreasing quality ENVIRONMENT Human well-being: Economic, Ecosystem social services goods & Farmer services liveilhoods 24 Current Responses Desalination GCC: more than 50% of domestic water use consumption comes from desalination Energy usage: drinking oil? Negative Impact on marine life Privatization UAE, Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco: Public-Private Partnership Needs strong regulatory government to ensure that public will not suffer from increased cost and decreased quality Bottled water consumption (UAE and Lebanon: highest growth in bottled water consumption in the world) Some reports indicate by 2050, GCC would spend 50% of their fuel on desalination Bottled water: polluting industry Removes pressure on government to provide clean water to population Reuse of drainage water Practiced on a large scale in Egypt Up to 10% of total water resources are from reused from agricultural drainage water More limited scale in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Syria 25 Additional necessary responses Reduce consumption (from repairing infrastructure to family planning) Develop a water commons Develop fair pricing – not ‘full cost recovery’ as was in Rio Reduce vulnerabilities of poor Charge higher volume users more per unit Plan for all water resources in a comprehensive package Participatory stewardship Why do we assign water quality to a Health Ministry, drinking water to an urban utility, and irrigation to an Agricultural Ministry, and no one responsible for watershed health? Develop sequential water use Implement wise agricultural management (from halting the export of virtual water to comprehensive support for small-holder farmers) Stop export of water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice Support farmers to have the financial means to implement water efficient irrigation Ensure water as a human right and not a human need And of course: work seriously to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions locally and internationally: make mitigating climate change a priority 26 DRIVERS HUMAN SOCIETY Population growth Increased consumption PRESSURES IMPACTS Increased resource exploitation Climate change Agricultural mismanagement RESPONSES • Reduce consumption • Develop a water commons • Water as a human right State: water security crisis Decreasing supply Decreasing quality ENVIRONMENT Human well-being: Economic, Ecosystem social services goods & Farmer services liveilhoods 27 Water under occupation and apartheid: Palestine Theft of Palestinian Water 28 29 For more information, please contact Rania el Masri at [email protected]