Fieldwork 101

Steps to go through for conducting field evaluation.

Introduction

• •

There are three basic stages to the field research process:

– Stage I Planning – Stage II Data Collection, – Stage III Follow-Up.

What we will do today is discuss these stages and offer some tips/trips/and traps that can occur during each of these stages.

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Stage I

PLANNING

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Things to Know When conducting field work, one must be aware of the final objective of the research study.

– Is it a site study or a market strategy?

• This will directly affect the amount of time in the field.

• The clearly defined scope of work will save time in the long run.

– What is the final output?

• A copy of the competitive form? • What type of Modeling will be used?

• Full report write up or a 1 page memo?

– Who are the good contact people for local knowledge?

• Development departments at City, County and COG.

• • • DOT departments for roadway changes.

Newspaper for announced changes.

Chambers of Commerce – treat them with a grain of salt.

“Fieldwork 101” Presented by Kevin Anderson

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Things to Know

(cont.)

Other things to keep in mind for the study: – What type of retail am I researching?

• Grocery , Fuel, Convenience or other types of retail.

– Where am I going? • More than one analyst has ended up in the wrong city….

– What will my data collection instrument be?

• • Paper Form or database located on my computer? Dictation?

Who will see my data form –me or other people?

– What will the retail cut offs be? • Size Limitation ( i.e. no less than 5,000 Sq. Ft)? • Channel Limitation (only C-Stores)?

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Before You Collect Preliminary Data: Define the Study Area

• • • Is it a Metro or a Single/Two site evaluation?

What is the area like? Urban, Rural, or Suburban?

– Remember as population density goes down Study Area extent goes up!

– Is it a seasonal area? May have to break-out the seasonal sectors in the modeling.

Are there customer spotting or other types of consumer research available to help determine the Study Area?

– – Especially useful when it comes to relocations and expansions.

Lets you know where sister stores are pulling and lets you adjust the Study Area accordingly.

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Metro Strategies

• Metro strategies are easiest because we have clear cut off points with regard to geography, but are more complex with the variety and scope.

– Usually centered around a strong central place (i.e. Atlanta, Raleigh or other cities).

– Counties or other government boundaries are typically used as cut-off points. – May go over the county boundary if there are stores within close proximity. 7

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Single or Multiple Site Studies

• With single (or multiple sites that are relatively close to each other), there is a little more involved.

– If there are sister stores in the area, go no further out than the 1 st ‘ring’ of sister stores.

• Odds are you will not pull significant market shares past these units.

• Census Geography may cause you to go past this ring.

– In an area of high competitive density, go no further than the 2 nd of competitors.

• Market shares should drop significantly past these competitors.

ring – In rural areas look at the major shopping areas in the overall area and define the study area based gravity methods or customer spotting.

• Go to neighboring towns to see what is there –Wal*Mart or other big box operators.

• Is the site in a County Seat? Use the Central Place Theorem.

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Sister Stores 10

Stage I : Planning – The Changes

• • • • • When I started research, Stage I was totally different than it is today. And it will be totally different 20 years from now.

Everything was done by hand; personal computers and the internet were just in their infancy.

Once the internet came of maturity it was virtually a necessity for supermarket’s to have a website for promotions and store locations. Now competitor locations are visible to anyone whom wants to find them and has access to a smart phone or a computer. 9/11 also has changed the willingness of governmental departments to give information on developments without an FOIA documentation.

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How Things have Changed: Travel Scheduling

• • • • • • • •

Old Way – time frame 1-2 days

Get OAG (Official Airlines Guide), look at flight options.

Find the most convenient flight.

Find Hotel by looking in the AAA travel guides Select Rental Car.

Fill out the form and give it to secretary.

Secretary calls travel agency and schedules the trip.

You pick up tickets at drop box at airport.

Hope you are going to the right place, if not go to the ticketing desk and make changes….

• • • •

Current – 2 hrs.

Log on to Expedia.

Schedule flight, hotel and car.

Get your confirmation email Pay a lot less….

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How Things Have Changed: Getting Competition

Current – Time Frame 1-8 hrs.

• • • • • • •

“Old” way – Time Frame 40+ hrs.

Get Maps. AAA or Map Shop Phone calls to local “experts” – Chamber of Commerce – – City/County Planners Newspaper advertising personnel Get Telephone Books Figure out the Study Area Define the retail category Locate the potential competition on the map – Call each location – Ask them street/X street – Put it on the map Make sure you do not forget the map when you travel to the field • • • • • • If you have Trade Dimensions, Info USA or other databases great otherwise: – Open Google, – – Search for channel competition, Export to XML .

Visit Websites of competition – Validate published data sources.

Do a search for new competitors on the internet.

Import to your GPS or Mapping Program and you are ready to go. Find good places to eat….

Pay a lot less….

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A Word on Store Location Databases

• • There are 3 main national databases that contain retail locations : – Trade Dimensions – Good with respect to locations, offers lot of information with regard to marketing store attributes, not so good with regard to volumes and sizes. Expensive!

– Chain Store Guide - Good with respect to locations and relevance, poor with respect to volumes and store attributes. Less expensive than Trade Dimensions but more expensive than Info USA.

– Info USA - Average with respect to locations and relevance, poor with respect to volume and store attributes. Relatively inexpensive. This database started off as a Yellow Pages listings in electronic format.

With all of these databases you must realize there are considerable lag times between publication and the actual collection of data.

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Step I Summary

• • This step is procedurally a lot simpler than what was 20 years ago. Even though the hours of work has decreased significantly, the importance of this Stage is still relatively the same.

– – – Define what you are looking at Define where you will be looking Get the raw data – – Import raw data into mapping or GIS software.

And find out what is going on in the market before you get there.

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Stage II

DATA COLLECTION

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What is the Data Collection Process?

• • • There are three basic things to do in the field when you arrive at the location.

– Evaluate the Site(s) – Evaluate the Competition – Contact local experts Drive the Study Area. More you know the better informed you will be Ask Questions when you are talking to people about the local area 17

Tools Have Changed in the Past 25+ Years

• • • • Photo’s have been used for years but now we can take them with digital vs film and insert them directly into our documents.

Latitude Longitude replace map x/y measures in modeling and can be taken at site vs in the office.

Site and Competitive forms can be migrated from paper to tablets, smart phones and computers for instant access.

Maps have gone from paper to electronic and are more accurate with systems that are interactive between the map and forms.

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Site Evaluation

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The Site Evaluation

• Either at the beginning of the trip or end (or both) go to the proposed location(s) and LOOK at the sites characteristics: - Population Density - Retail Gravitation - Street Network - Store Network - Wetlands - Elevation Changes between Road

and Parcel

- Proposed Entries and Exits • • If at all possible use the conceptual site plan to help in your evaluation of the potential location.

Make sure to drive all the major streets to get a good feel for the traffic flows and potential routes customers could take to the site.

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Site Information Data Sheet

Insert picture here • • • • Most Data Collection Forms will be similar to this one .

Some analyst/companies will use their competitive forms for the site evaluation.

Others, like myself, use a form like this one to augment the competitive form with more descriptions on the physical features of a location.

On the competitive form, we put more of the assumptions on merchandising and store layout.

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Competitive Evaluations

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Overview

(cont.) • • • • Regardless the retailer or the channel; what you collect in the field for the competitive evaluations can be categorized as either Locational or Feature (attribute) Data.

Location Data is everything that relates to the site/location of the unit or everything outside the store walls Feature Data is everything relating to the physical store or inside the walls.

Some data is necessary some is not, it is up to your company to decide what fields you want to include in the data collection phase.

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Overview

• • • Take pictures of the proposed site and the competition. These are good tools for remembering the characteristics of a location.

Rankings or Likert Scales (i.e. Good, Average, Poor, or Plum Pitiful) should be based in some sort of standard and adjusted for the market being studied.

– For example, if visibility is poor for a unit, but if everyone’s visibility is the same, then it is average to the market.

– Stores in isolated market areas tend to “regress to the mean” or average of the competitors, much to the chagrin of operational management trying to enforce the corporate standards.

If at all possible use quantitative data over qualitative data in the collection process.

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Examples of Location and Feature Data

• • • • • • •

Location Data

Street Data (Address, X Street, City, State, Zip) County, Provinces, Parish Latitude/Longitude Road Characteristics – Type of Roadway, – Number of Lanes, – – – – – Number of breakout lanes, Ingress/egress ratings, Cross-over Rating, Traffic Signals, Traffic Counts.

Location Type – Freestanding, Neighborhood, Community, Power, Regional Trade Area Type – Urban, Rural, Suburban, CBD, Regional, Highway.

Shopping Center Data – Name – – Number of Tenants, Number of Vacant, – – Tennant List, Parking.

Feature Data

• • • • • • Selling Area and Total Area Sales Estimate Departments ratings and listing .

– Management by exception – Sizes? Case Runs?

Specialty offerings.

– Service Meat/Fish, Deli, Bakery, Salad Bar, Soup Bar, Coffee Shop, etc.

Format of the store – Limited Assortment, Upscale Gourmet, etc.

Facility Characteristics – Number of Cash Registers, – – Rating of Fixtures and Equipment, Housekeeping, – – – Merchandising, Management.

Hours of Operation 25

Old Comp Sheet circa 1988

Likert Scales Locational Data Departments 26

• •

Data Collection Basics: Selling and Total Area

What is right way to measure a store (You may find the answer surprising)? It Depends on Who is Paying You!

– We can get into arguments on what is the more correct way to measure a store but it is all about consistency not “correctness”. • • If your company store is measured wall to wall without taking out for center store Pharmacies or Deli/Bakeries, then that’s OK since all competitor stores will be measured in the same way. Some would argue that open prep areas are more “back room space” vs “sales floor”, but I would argue that the prep areas are open for a reason and it adds to the “theater” for store presentation just as much as a display case does.

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• •

Data Collection Basics: Selling and Total Area

What do we use to measure sales area?

– – – – Ceiling tiles (2’X2’ or 2’X4’ are common suspended ceiling tile sizes), Fluorescent light tubes (4’ or 8’), Measured Pace (make sure you check it periodically), Measure width by depth to get the square footage and add in any pop outs/ins.

Common methods for Total Area: – Google Earth (measure the polygon of the building footprint), – – – Published sources (i.e. Loop Net, Costar, building permit database), Divide the selling area by .70-.75 depending on retailer, Ask the store manager.

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Data Collection Basics: Sales Volumes

• • There are numerous methods for getting sales volumes, some are more nefarious than others, but we all can make estimates from physical attributes of the store.

– All publicly held companies publish sales and square footage in the annual reports , it’s a simple matter to calculate the overall store averages, – Other published sources (Shelby Report and Dun & Bradstreet) offer company profiles that will give an overall company financial health but not specific locations.

Need to know some of the esoteric methods for individual store volume estimates – Employee Counts, Perishable Presentation and Bread Rack counts can all be used to estimate sales. These can vary by chain.

– Existing store employees that used to work at the competition could be a good source of information, but may not be to knowledgeable – Bread and DSD vendors can provide some sort of individual store estimates.

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Other Feature Data

• • • • Make notes on the quality and presentation in all the major departments; Meat, Grocery, Dairy/Frozen, and Produce. Specialty Departments/Categories should be identified (see next slide).

Not everything in a store is noteworthy!

– – Humidors were the rage 15 years ago now they are blasé. International Foods was once unusual, now almost every store carries a international aisle.

Make overall ratings on fixtures, and pay attention to the Marketing and Merchandising within the store.

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Some Categories to Mention

Perishables

• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Bakery Deli Starbucks/Off-Brand Coffee Hot Food Bar (e.g. Asian, Breakfast) Specialty/Service Meat and Fish Lobster Tanks MTO Sandwiches (Carving and Subs) Pizza (by the slice or whole pie) Salad Bar Soup Bar Real Bar!

Beer Variety – Domestics/Craft/Import Wine Variety – Price Points Liquor Variety Artisan Breads Restaurants Hot and Cold Beverages Grab and Go Organics/Natural Nutraceuticals Bulk Foods • • • • • •

Non-Perishable/Food

• • Seating Area Internet Ordering • • Photo Shop Greeting Cards • • Books/Magazines Gift Cards Coffee Grinding Humidor Rug Doctor • • CoinStar Redbox (DVD Rental) Lottery Customer Service Center Pharmacy • • Health and Beauty Care Pet Foods • • Cosmetics Jewelry 31

• • •

Other Tips

Taking notes within the competitor store and being inconspicuous is easier said than done.

– Try using a small spiral notebook to keep notes, – Dictate into your smart phone or digital recorder, – Use a tablet or Smart phone data collection app.

When driving to stores try not to ride on the same road twice; – MapPoint has a GPS feature that will allow you track your route, – – Some stand alone GPS will allow you to record your routes, Getting lost can teach more about an area than anything else!

– Make note of retail nodes and traffic generators while exploring.

Note the style and stages of households when you drive through an area; – Are there a lot of cars in the driveway? Maybe an indicator of teenagers.

– Jungle Gyms on the property? Children maybe present.

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The Problem with Data Collection

• No matter how good your measurements, they are only really good estimates – – This is especially true for sizes and volumes.

Some retailers want measurements from “wall to wall” others want alcoves and prep areas cut out to find the net square footage.

• There can be significant differences when comparing the two methods.

• Even the same analyst can come up with differing sizes when measuring the same store – Rounding occurs during the process and this can be a significant source of variance.

• What is the number of significant digits? Nearest 10? Nearest 100? Nearest 1,000?

• • Are you rounding the width and depth measurements to get square footages?

For example: 195*200= 39,000; vs 193*198=38,214; A variation of roughly 2% 33

The Problem with Data Collection

(cont.) – – What we use to determine the width and depth measurements can also cause variation • Is your pace really consistent ? Or does it vary from start of the day to closing? • Are those tiles really 2’X2’ or are they 2.1’X2.1’ You cannot eliminate all these variations but you should be aware of them.

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Local Contacts

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• • •

Local Contacts

Local contacts provide us information that we cannot get anywhere else such as: – Where is the new residential/commercial/retail growth occurring? What are the roadway changes? Who are the major employers? Etc. Some analyst prefer to have face to face conversations, others prefer the contact to be email or via telephone. Advantages for email are that you can send the questions and have written replies. Also, you can more readily get contact via telephone at a later date – With in person interview, scheduling sometimes becomes a problem – for the analyst and the interviewee. Government Personnel maybe instructed NOT to discuss development with you unless you produce some credentials.

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• • • •

Whom do You Contact?

Local government officials in the city and county offices of: – Building/Zoning, – Economic Development, – Planning.

– Warning! The local government officials willingness to tell you anything about proposed or planned projects before they are made public is almost nil. Chamber of Commerce – Good for economic and employer data via websites or in person .

Local Newspapers.

– Good for getting a pulse on the local economy.

Local Real Estate People.

– Developers and Realtors will know the rumors that are in the market 37

When Do You Make Contact?

• • My preference is to send an email before going to the market with a series of questions. – Start off with the planning department then work your way down to zoning and building departments.

– Follow up with a phone call to touch base to make sure I have all the data.

In the market I will make notes on the unique things that are out there; especially remodels and expansions and any new dirt being moved in the area.

– Follow up with the same contacts to get confirmation on what is going at the location.

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Summary of Stage II: Data Collection

• • Remember the three basic things to do in the field when you arrive at the location.

– – Evaluate the Site(s), Evaluate the Competition, – Contact local experts.

For the Site and Competitive Evaluations we need to make sure we get locational and feature data.

– Need to make sure locations are correct and site and store attributes are collected.

– Need to make note of any unusual offering for the store and place it in the report.

– Make sure to take pictures of the store front, and the site if necessary.

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Summary of Stage II: Data Collection

• • Drive the area to find new development and observe the traffic patterns.

– – Where are the choke points for traffic?

Where are the major generators of traffic?

• Major Employers • • Shopping College/Universities Need to contact local experts to get the “lay of the land” and to corroborate any known competitive or residential changes .

– – Either at the start or end of the project.

Keep a list handy of these persons, who knows you may go back and need some help at a later date.

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Step III

FOLLOW-UP

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The Follow-Up

• • • The Follow-Up is the simplest and some would say most critical stage in the field work process. Review the Competitive data: – Are there any previously unnoticed volume or sales discrepancies?

– – How are the spellings of the streets and street types?

Do you need to find the traffic counts of the streets for your database?

Review the Site data: – – Are all the streets spelled correctly?

Sizes correct?

– – Do your assumptions MAKE SENSE?

Double check it against the proposed site plan?

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The Follow-Up

• • What about competitive activity?

– Have you verified the rumors?

– Did you get all the planned/proposed competition as supplied by local contacts?

– Did you get all the proposed subdivision activity? Do you need to adjust the population projections?

What is the economic activity?

– Follow up on leads from local contacts develop list for reports • Major Employers • • Building Permits Consumer Price Index • Unemployment rates – Get GDP reports if possible for the area.

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Summarize Stage III: Follow-Up

• • • This can be the shortest with regard to time or it can be the longest.

Make sure to get the double checks that you could not make in the field, done at this time.

During this stage of the field evaluation is where you will pull together the data on the economic health of the study area.

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Conclusion

• • • • • • Take time in the planning stage because it can save you field time It maybe good to evaluate the site at the end of the trip because you can have a more objective analysis.

Competitive form is the heart and soul of the field evaluation and should be well thought out before leaving the office.

Spending an extra half day driving the Study Area is time well spent.

Collaborate with local “experts” to get a better understanding of the Study Area.

Don’t forget to follow through on your field notes when you get back to the office.

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