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Cities21
• Non-profit consultancy: next generation smart
growth and transportation for sustainability
• Edge cities & office parks: Palo Alto, Microsoft
Campus (Redmond, WA), Emeryville in 2001,
MN burbs, etc
• BART Group Rapid Transit Study (Cybertran)
• EPA Hacienda “Transforming Office Parks into
Transit Villages” – Pleasanton, BART, MTC, Bay
Area Council, Oracle, ACCMA, CCLR, East Bay
Community Foundation, etc.
[email protected]
Futuristic, Utopian Emeryville Vision
• Emery Go Round on steroids: Same stops,
faster than a car, 2500 trips/day => 23K
• More effective BART, carpool, AC bus, Amtrak,
bike
• Less than 50% of trips by car
• Lower cost of living, higher quality of life,
increased real-estate values, increased in-fill,
increased employee retention, better jobs
access, increased public transit revenue,
sustainable (Kyoto+), attract new businesses
(biotech), better Pixar expansion
• Improved Xmas shopping traffic.
[email protected]
PRT – Rapid Emery Go Round
• Personal Rapid Transit
• Feeder / Distributor / Circulator
– Similar to a monorail. Video
• High service level, no waiting, faster than a car.
– Non-stop, 30 MPH
– Bypasses intermediate stations
– Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose
– Convenient stops by buildings (not on street)
– Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust
– 24x7
• First new transp. mode in 90 yrs.
[email protected]
Emeryville
PRT System
• 6.5 mile alignment
• Connects East & West
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Promising Palo Alto Results
• (62 surveys)
• Promising, but not definitive
• Solo commutes: 89%  45%
– Carpool: 9%  32%, train: 0%  15.5% train
– For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos (roughly)
• @ 350 s.f. per space  50 acres  $326M hsng profit
• 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day
– PRT: profitable (capital, O&M)
• Huge transit village  land value increase
• Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers
– 1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO2
[email protected]
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PRT status
• Development efforts:
– Taxi 2000 SkyWeb Express, MN (60’ track, 1
vehicle)
– ULTra, Cardiff, Wales (1km track, 2 vehicles)
– Well funded, but secret, Korean effort
– Texas MicroRail: (short track, 1 vehicle)
• Heathrow procurement
• Dubai procurement (no EIR!)
• First system: 2008?
[email protected]
Comprehensive, Integrated Mobility
Door to Door
Train
first mile
Walk
Centralized Cars:
first mile
Bus
share, rent, ride home
Delivery services,
Personal activities,
Business services
Bike, scooter, Segway
Smart jitney, hitchhike
Short carpool pick up
•Improved match-making
•Shared parking, nuride
Long carpool
•Web/wireless coordination
•Supportive policy context
•Scale!
[email protected]
PRT shuttle system
LAST MILE
mid-day trips
first mile
Potential First Mover Strategy
• Ballot measure in favor of PRT: political mandate
(hard to innovate in mature democracy with
entrenched interests)
• => federal earmark for $20M test track
• Jobs! National leadership!
• First system
• Intl transit tourism
• Lead a new industry!
• No risk franchise strategy
• Like electric trolley in 1888
• Second mover strategy
• PRT scenario in genl plan.
[email protected]
Q&A
• "Our current transportation policy path in the U. S. is clearly
unsustainable. Traffic, its environmental impacts and its impact
on quality of life continue to get worse virtually everywhere in
the country. Innovative new ideas and new approaches are
badly needed. We need a portfolio of innovative approaches
spread across the United States, with each one pushing the
envelope towards a more sustainable future transportation
system. Cities21 and its Suburban Silver Bullet should be in
this portfolio. It is innovative; it is forward-looking; it addresses
many key transportation challenges; and the potential benefits
- if widely disseminated - are large." - Steve Offutt, EPA's Best
Workplaces for Commuters.
• "I've long thought personal rapid transit would be a silver bullet
for Edge City transportation woes if you could keep it as
simple, customizable, scalable, affordable, and profitable as
Legos. Cities21 may have cracked the code." - Joel Garreau,
Edge City: Life on the New Frontier..
[email protected]
PRT Visual Impact
• Important issue
– Modern offices & parking lots are more inviting to PRT than
historic downtowns
• Visual vocabulary
– Freeway overpasses versus roller coasters
– Visarc.com
– Chalmers U. study: blend in w/ historic downtown
• Portable full scale model
– Walk underneath it. Human visual perception sys.
• 3D Virtual Reality animation/simulation
• Survey: How will ULTra look in cities?
– 80% say good or excellent.
[email protected]
@ Berkeley
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Literature + Interviews + Surveys
• Large solo driving reduction is hard
• Last mile problem is very important
– Mid-day trips: 2X value of time
– Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles
• Each commuter: basket of objections
– PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient
• 30% time penalty: OK
• Carpool psychology is complex:
– Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating)
– Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important
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Short train or carpool with PRT: OK
Customer support: eliminate nightmares
Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home
Good commute: “time went fast.”
[email protected]