Transcript No Slide Title

Efficient Suburbs 2020
• Emma’s: http://www.cities21.org/ , efficient cities
– Speaks Democrat & Republican - clumsy?
• Agenda:
– ? 2 minutes on Smart Growth ?
• Yell to define jargon
– Background (13 slides)
• Warming, regl plan, policy, fake solns, sustainable
– PRT Suburban Silver Bullet (13)
– Walk to Work Homes (4)
– Green Culture (2)
– Digital Hitchhiking.
[email protected]
Is this real?
• Is global warming a concern?
• Is “peak oil” a concern?
– $6, $9, or even $12 per gallon?
– GNP shrinks?
– “petro-shock” plans? – prudent
• Energy policy: all benefits, no
sacrifice. Quick, easy govt fixes?
It’s what we want.
• 85% high-schoolers pessimistic
– Self-fulfilling
• Most common strategy for the
future is denial (Schwartz – Art of Long View).
[email protected]
Regional Visioning
• 30 big U.S. metro regions are “visioning”
–
CA @ 50M, CNU/RV, CA’s Future in the Balance, Compass, MTC, Frego/Calthorpe 80% share
• In 25 years, 50% population growth. w/ smart
scenario, only 40% VMT increase
– Scenario implementation not guaranteed
– Things get worse. Only slows the acceleration of
degradation. Calthorpe: “We should be doing more to
reduce ecological footprint” (www.ecofoot.org)
– Current TOD/SG isn’t a fix. Only 200 small transit villages
• Need more, bigger, smarter SG faster, dang it!
– Toolbox doesn’t work. Have to go outside of the box
• Frego/Calthorpe held back by clients. Unchecked,
Calthorpe would have:
– Carbon tax, PRT circulator (not “90 year old transit
technology”), strong office park Rx.
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Disfunctional Human Settlement Patterns(Risse)
• Big required change: demand/behavior side. There’s
no quick transportation or energy supply fix. (dilithium)
– Frustration: environment  smart growth links are weak
• For each person, minimize the distances in the
triangle below. Miles  feet
– 4 story urbanist mixed use TV  50% of trips w/o car,
mostly walk, not transit (GB Arrington, TCRP 102) – “walk to quart of milk”
• πr2 :: pipes, wires, streets, distribution. Infrastructure
cost savings in the billions for Envision Utah. (25% -TCRP74)
Job
Home
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Activities
Sprawl vs. Green Urban
Are suburbanites villains? No, but future choices really matter
250
Transportation Use
Household Use
200
125
150
Million BTU
per Year
83
28
100
20
50
115
115
81
20
69
42
0
Suburban
Avg
(240
MBTU)
Suburban Urban Avg
Urban Green
Green
(143 MBTU) (89 MBTU)
(164 MBTU)
Single Family Household Type
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© Jonathan Rose Companies, LLC
Urban
Multifamily
Green (62
MBTU)
What should goals be?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
89 MBTU, not 240  Kyoto, cap VMT at 2006
Growth boundary (more than 1 species - superchimp)
Lower cost of living + upward mobility
Profit (no govt $ to scale up subsidized program)  viral
Unleash human goodness
 stomp pessimism: show method to solve big problems
Lesser goals
–
–
–
–
Health promotion
Social: vibrant, not Bowling Alone
Mobility for people who can’t drive
More productive travel
• Not our job:
–
–
–
–
Sierra Club’s Holtzclaw: Sustainable population is 4B
Reduced ecological footprint food production (vegetarian)
Curtail materialism (Worldwatch, etc).
Curtail airplane travel
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Can Government Achieve these
goals?
• 2 slides on why govt can’t
– (public policy theory).
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Quantum Innovation / Public Policy (Burke)
• Innovations produce winners & losers
• Political subsystems favor incremental change
– ag, defense, energy, transit, healthcare, edu, etc.
– “analysis is politics by other means”
– Auto/highway subsystem trumps transit
• Public sector: huge penalty for failure
• Media stifles innovation, accentuates conflict
• Macropolitical system can impose quantum
change – earmarks, etc
– ’79+: mature democracy, entrenched interests
• Billionaires & tech foundations: quantum
• Strong govt: Dubai, Singapore.
[email protected]
Social Entrepreneurism
• micro-credit, India street kids, AIDs education
• Act local (small $), strive for widespread impact
– Fix 1 suburb  world is saved (viral spread, mutation)
• Government is not the solution
– resistant, but good follower
• S. E. characteristics:
– Boring at dinner parties
– Driven, stamina, undeterred
– “Ends" oriented
• Will change/refine tactics
– Listener (behavioral)
– Cross-disciplinary, practical.
[email protected]
By David Bornstein
Fake solutions
• Hydrogen economy (A better battery, so nice
increment. Entrenched interests)
• AHS (auto-pilot cars) – “low friction” long
distance transportation  ultra sprawl
• Outer ring solar roof McMansion
• “Socially responsible” companies
– w/ bad settlement patterns.
[email protected]
Multiple Solutions w/ Trade-offs
• Emma: Any real solution is good
• Cities21: Complex, comprehensive,
integrated. Make smart growth smarter
– How to make it happen. Economics. Envt impact.
Vetted via 300 mtngs (need more visions!)
• Vs. cursory ecocity wishlists (how? $?)
• Auto-hostility works pretty well: $10 office park
parking, parking shortages, etc. But, tragedy
of commons
• What’s “least crazy?”
– Denial?.
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3 stage path to sustainability (Risse)
• Can’t go straight there
• 1) Populist: Consciousness raising, recycling, sea
bass, Prius, non-threatening to government
• 2) Fundamental: efficient human settlement patterns.
Land-use conversant population, government
restructuring. Green building
• 3) Profound: 80% NRG & resource reduction, 4B
population, accurate pricing, renewable NRG, diet
restructuring, anti-materialism, lower GNP, etc
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The Villain: Suburban Office Parks
• Main cause of sprawl & congestion for 30 years
– Affordability decreasing, segregation increasing
– 200 with ~ 30K workers  6M+ workers
• ULI’s Transforming Suburban Business Districts
• Calthorpe “We didn't focus on office parks. Huge
mistake. Need powerful strategies for these”
• Cervero: So bad they’re easy to fix
• Shoup (High Cost of Free Parking) - Parking lots  land
bank.
– The new frontier: 5 parking spaces per car
• Upper Rock & Tysons business parks  TOD.
[email protected]
Villain 2: Housing Industry
• Problem: few innovative housing choices
• 1) Zimmerman / Volk. Home industry: "lumbering
giants.” No genuine innovations. No “meaningful
improvement of the product offered to the consumer"
• 2) SG America: "Homes are like pork bellies, all the
same, rather than as consumer products which vary
greatly according to people's preferences.” HPD #12i4
• New choice: vibrant, green suburban lifestyle: short
commute apts and condos, mixed use, good schools.
(By John S. Pritchett
[email protected]
www.pritchettcartoons.com)
END of Background
• Background (13 slides)
– Warming, regl plan, policy, fake solns, sustainable
• Complex solution:
– PRT Suburban Silver Bullet (13)
– Walk to Work Homes (4)
– Green Culture (2)
– Digital Hitchhiking.
[email protected]
Nature
Fish stocks
Water supply
& quality
Forests
Habitat
“Environmentalism”
• 4B population (large # people)
– Helps all
• Efficient Cities (large # people)
– Helps all
•  Culture, goodness
Soil
Biodiversity
Smarter growth
–  Political will
• Gripes
Earth in Balance
Plan B 2.0
Collapse
[email protected]
– Stovepipe thinking
– Wishlists (how? $?)
– Insufficient scale
– Focus on symptoms
– Not “work backwards”.
NRG
Warming
Peak Oil
Air Pollution
Asilomar Conf.
Long Emergency
Apollo
Best practice solns
“Small” # people
Takes $ & will