Transcript Slide 1
Thailand Energy Situation Jan -Apr 2015 Production, Consumption and Import (Net) of Primary Commercial Energy Unit: KBD crude oil equivalent 2012 2013 2014 2015* Consumption 1,982 2,002 2,052 2,097 Production 1,082 1,078 1,073 1,040 Import (Net) 1,082 1,121 1,171 1,251 55 56 57 60 Consumption 6.9 1.0 2.6 2.0 Production 6.3 -0.4 -0.5 -4.6 Import (Net) 6.1 3.6 4.4 5.6 6.5 2.8 0.9 3.0** Import/Consumption (%) Growth Rate (%) GDP (%) -2- * Jan - Apr * *Jan - Mar http://www.eppo.go.th Consumption of Primary Commercial Energy Unit: KBD crude oil equivalent 2012 2013 2014 1,982 2,002 2,052 2,097 - Oil 710 730 734 783 - Natural Gas 889 909 916 922 - Imported Coal 230 217 261 277 - Domestic Lignite 98 101 97 79 - Hydro/Imported Elec. 55 46 44 36 6.9 1.0 2.6 2.0 - Oil 5.2 2.8 0.6 3.0 - Natural Gas 9.8 2.3 0.8 2.2 - Imported Coal 12.4 -5.6 20.5 15.5 - Domestic Lignite -12.6 2.5 -3.3 -22.2 3.0 -17.6 -3.6 -30.1 Total Consumption Total Consumption - Hydro/Imported Elec. -3- 2015* * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Final Commercial Energy Consumption Unit: KBD crude oil equivalent 2012 2013 2014 2015* 1,300 1,317 1,364 1,430 - Oil 704 723 726 777 - Natural Gas 169 174 178 178 - Imported Coal 132 119 155 182 15 17 13 6 280 284 292 287 5.7 1.3 3.6 5.7 5.3 2.7 0.5 3.6 16.1 2.9 2.5 2.5 3.9 -10.0 29.9 36.3 -43.7 10.5 -23.6 -61.7 6.8 1.6 2.8 2.7 GDP (%) 6.5 2.8 0.9 3.0** Elasticity 0.9 0.5 4.0 1.9 Total Consumption - Domestic Lignite - Electricity Growth Rate (%) Total Consumption - Oil - Natural Gas - Imported Coal - Domestic Lignite - Electricity -4- * Jan - Apr * *Jan - Mar http://www.eppo.go.th Crude Oil Supply Unit: KBD Share (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015* Domestic Production 149 149 139 144 14 Import 860 868 805 872 86 1,009 1,017 944 1,016 100 Total 2015* * Jan - Apr -5- http://www.eppo.go.th Crude Oil Supply -- by Source Unit: Barrels/Day 2012 2013 Benjamas 25,439 20,652 Sirikit 28,423 32,889 27,948 3,748 2,754 1,645 1,737 Unocal (Big Oil Project) 28,281 29,816 24,051 23,201 Jusmin 10,408 10,478 9,796 9,871 Bualaung 7,200 12,317 12,496 13,235 Songkha 19,883 20,322 14,297 11,415 Lanta 6,671 4,331 6,688 7,050 Others 18,924 15,922 19,174 29,388 Total Domestic Prod. 148,977 149,481 138,758 144,213 Import 860,211 868,040 804,912 871,909 1,009,188 1,017,521 943,670 1,016,122 Tantawan Grand Total -6- 2014 22,663 2015* 20,843 27,473 * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Condensate Production Unit: Barrels/Day 2011 2012 Bongkot 20,556 27,359 32,480 28,877 29,443 Erawan 10,531 9,025 5,863 6,756 5,550 Pailin 18,048 11,861 11,234 10,525 8,906 5,508 7,842 7,671 6,850 5,889 Arthit 15,811 10,548 9,230 9,403 9,149 Others 13,682 23,004 24,681 Total 84,136 89,639 91,159 Funan & Jakrawan 2013 2014 2015* 31,919 94,330 40,223 99,160 * Jan - Apr -7- http://www.eppo.go.th Refinery Utilization Rate 2014 Refining Capacity (BBL/D) Crude Oil Intake* (BBL/D) Utilization Rate (%) Thai Oil 275,000 304,299 111 Bangchak 120,000 111,614 93 ESSO 177,000 142,569 81 IRPC 215,000 192,440 90 PTTAR 280,000 195,250 70 SPRC 165,000 180,081 109 17,000 - - 2,500 737 29 1,251,500 1,126,990 90 Refinery RPC FANG Total -8- * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Refinery Utilization Rate 2015 * 350,000 300,000 250,000 BBL/D 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 TOC BCP ESSO IRPC Capacity PTTGC SPRC RPC FANG Intake * Jan - Apr -9- http://www.eppo.go.th Petroleum Product Production Unit: Million Litres Growth Rate (%) Jan - Apr Energy Type 2013 2014 2014 2015 2014 Share (%) 2015* 2015* GASOLINE 9,853.3 9,886.5 3,188.4 3,476.9 0.3 9.0 17 Regular 4,786.7 4,843.1 1,558.9 1,662.2 1.1 6.6 8 Premium 5,066.6 5,043.3 1,629.5 1,814.8 -0.4 11.3 9 - Gasohol 4,135.5 4,430.4 1,391.9 1,609.0 7.1 15.5 8 931.1 612.9 237.6 205.8 -34.1 -13.4 1 694.9 1,098.0 310.8 444.4 58.0 42.9 2 25,524.9 24,068.1 7,984.1 8,738.1 -5.7 9.4 43 JET PETROLEUM 6,680.1 6,638.5 2,252.9 2,459.3 -0.6 9.1 12 FUEL OIL 5,939.6 5,667.4 1,779.7 1,877.7 -4.5 5.5 9 LPG 10,087.1 10,196.7 3,328.8 3,431.7 1.0 3.0 17 TOTAL 58,779.8 57,555.0 18,844.6 20,428.0 -2.0 8.4 100 - ULG 95 KEROSENE DIESEL - 10 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Petroleum Product Consumption Unit: Million Litres Growth Rate (%) Jan - Apr Energy Type 2013 2014 2014 2015 2014 Share (%) 2015* 2015* GASOLINE 8,194.9 8,506.1 2,706.1 3,084.5 3.7 13.9 18 Regular 3,445.8 3,594.8 1,143.2 1,315.8 4.3 15.0 8 Premium 4,749.1 4,911.3 1,562.8 1,768.8 3.4 13.1 10 - Gasohol 4,132.9 4,413.1 1,389.6 1,603.5 6.7 15.3 9 616.2 498.2 173.3 165.2 -19.1 -4.6 1 11.0 10.8 3.7 3.7 -1.9 1.2 0.02 20,907.4 21,083.9 7,227.4 7,403.3 0.8 2.4 42 JET PETROLEUM 5,562.4 5,513.1 1,994.1 2,083.5 -0.8 4.4 12 FUEL OIL 2,175.1 2,092.8 757.6 710.1 -3.7 -6.2 4 LPG ** 13,934.7 13,917.0 4,586.7 4,161.6 -0.1 -9.2 24 TOTAL 50,785.5 51,123.5 17,275.4 17,446.6 0.6 - ULG 95 KEROSENE DIESEL - 11 - 0.9 * Jan - 100 Apr * Jan - Apr ** Including Propane and Butane http://www.eppo.go.th NGV Consumption Unit: MMSCFD Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JanDec 2012 267 276 279 260 278 280 271 283 284 285 292 278 278 2013 290 310 309 291 314 310 307 317 310 309 314 303 307 2014 304 326 327 302 318 317 319 319 320 316 318 313 317 2015 304 319 329 299 313* ∆ (%) from previous year 0.0 -2.1 0.6 -1.0 -0.6* ∆(%) from previous month -2.9 4.9 3.1 -9.1 - 12 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Import of Petroleum Products Unit: Million Litres Jan - Apr Energy Type 2013 Growth Rate (%) Share(%) 2014 2014 2015 2014 2015* 2015* GASOLINE 262.2 884.3 378.6 328.3 237.2 -13.2 24 DIESEL 196.7 348.1 116.2 114.1 76.9 -1.7 8 16.2 4.2 2.0 1.1 -74.3 -42.7 0.1 268.4 370.8 141.6 96.3 38.1 -31.9 7 LPG** 3,651.2 3,887.4 1,243.7 808.7 6.4 -34.9 60 TOTAL 4,394.7 5,494.7 1,882.0 1,348.6 25.0 -28.3 100 JET PETROLEUM FUEL OIL * Jan - Apr ** Including Propane and Butane - 13 - http://www.eppo.go.th Export of Petroleum Products Unit: Million Litres Jan - Apr Energy Type Growth Rate (%) Share(%) 2013 2014 GASOLINE 1,634.4 1,339.7 487.5 355.3 -18.0 -27.1 10 Regular 1,369.5 1,205.7 413.9 313.3 -11.9 -24.3 9 264.9 134.0 73.6 42.0 -49.4 -42.9 1 4,874.3 4,316.9 3.4 5.2 -11.4 51.6 0.1 19.2 29.8 1,051.6 1,483.2 55.1 41.0 42 JET PETROLEUM 1,536.6 1,296.6 149.2 504.5 -15.6 238.1 14 FUEL OIL 3,774.3 3,835.9 1,087.5 1,187.3 1.6 9.1 33 11.2 18.5 13.4 18.5 65.2 38.3 1 11,850.0 10,837.4 2,792.6 3,554.0 -8.5 27.2 100 Premium 95 KEROSENE DIESEL LPG TOTAL 2014 2015 2014 2015* 2015* * Jan - Apr - 14 - http://www.eppo.go.th Supply and Demand of LPG, Propane and Butane Unit: 1,000 Tons 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth Rate (%) 2014 Share (%) 2015* 2015* 7,416 7,419 7,605 2,290 2.5 -7.3 100.0 - PRODUCTION 5,686 5,447 5,506 1,853 1.1 3.1 80.9 - IMPORT 1,730 1,972 2,099 437 6.5 -35.0 19.1 7,396 7,531 7,525 2,257 -0.1 -9.1 - CONSUMPTION 7,386 7,525 7,515 2,247 -0.1 -9.3 100.0 Household 3,047 2,409 2,188 697 -9.2 -7.8 31.0 614 602 577 195 -4.2 4.3 8.7 Automobile 1,061 1,775 1,974 595 11.2 -5.8 26.5 Petrochemical Industry 1,285 1,327 1,546 300 16.5 -47.4 13.3 Own Use 1,380 1,412 1,231 461 -12.9 38.6 20.5 1,270 1,314 1,129 413 -14.1 37.2 18.4 110 98 102 48 3.4 50.9 2.2 10 6 10 10 65.2 38.3 20 -112 80 33 TOTAL SUPPLY TOTAL DEMAND (CONSUMPTION+EXPORT) Industry - Feed Stock - Energy - EXPORT BALANCE (SUPPLY-DEMAND) - 15 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Crude Oil Import by Source Unit: Million Litres 2012 2013 2014 2015* Growth Rate (%) 2014 Share (%) 2015* 2015* 37,460 37,572 31,002 10,851 -17.5 4.9 65 Far East 4,022 4,370 4,517 2,860 3.4 123.8 17 Others 8,575 8,431 11,192 2,924 32.7 -28.8 18 50,056 50,374 46,710 16,635 -7.3 5.8 100 Middle East Total * Jan - Apr - 16 - http://www.eppo.go.th Crude Oil Import Increased by 5.8% Growth Rate (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2013 2014 2015* QUANTITY (KBD) 860 868 805 872 0.9 -7.2 5.8 VALUE (Billion Baht) 1,119 1,072 980 193 -4.2 -8.6 -46.2 PRICE (US$/Barrel) 113.94 109.69 102.25 56.26 -3.7 -6.8 -49.2 * Jan - Apr - 17 - http://www.eppo.go.th Comparison of Energy Prices 800 700 Fuel Oil* 500 400 300 Natural Gas* 200 100 Import Coal** 0 Ja n04 Ju l0 Ja 4 n05 Ju l0 Ja 5 n06 Ju l0 Ja 6 n07 Ju l0 Ja 7 n08 Ju l0 Ja 8 n09 Ju l0 Ja 9 n10 Ju l1 Ja 0 n11 Ju l1 Ja 1 n12 Ju l1 Ja 2 n13 Ju l1 Ja 3 n14 Baht/M.BTU 600 * Average retail prices ** Average import price of Thailand (CIF) http://www.eppo.go.th Natural Gas Supply Unit: MMSCFD 2012 2013 2014 2015* Share (%) 2014 Domestic Production 3,996 4,044 4,073 3,965 77 Import 950 1,013 1,025 1,165 23 4,946 5,057 5,098 5,129 100 Total * Jan - Apr - 19 - http://www.eppo.go.th Natural Gas Supply by Source MMSCFD 2012 Total Domestic Product 2013 2014 2015* 3,996 4,044 4,073 3,965 - Bongkot 869 1,008 975 992 - Erawan 255 197 219 206 - Pailin 361 363 314 277 - Arthit 268 252 246 236 - JDA 748 735 761 743 1,495 1,489 1,558 1,511 Total Import 950 1,013 1,025 1,165 - Import (MyanApr) 820 822 843 876 - Import (LNG) 130 191 182 289 - Import (Zawtika) 4,946 5,057 5,098 5,129 Grand Total 3,996 4,044 4,073 3,965 - Others * Jan - Apr - 20 - http://www.eppo.go.th Lignite/Coal Production Unit: 1,000 Tons 2012 2013 2014 2015* 16,590 17,072 17,140 4,648 1,476 1,039 842 200 Total Domestic Prod. 18,066 18,111 17,982 4,848 Imported Coal 18,404 17,328 20,881 6,740 Grand Total 36,470 35,439 38,861 11,588 MAE-MOH (EGAT) OTHERS * Jan - Apr - 21 - http://www.eppo.go.th Lignite/Coal Consumption by Sector Unit: Ktoe 2012 2013 2014 2015* Power Gen. 9,005.8 9,048.2 9,521.2 2,762.5 Industry 7,400.8 6,797.5 8,375.7 3,084.2 16,406.6 15,845.7 17,897.0 5,846.7 Sector Total Consumption Share Sector Unit: % 2012 2013 2014 2015* Power Gen. 54.9 57.1 53.2 47.3 Industry 45.1 42.9 46.8 52.8 Total 100 100 100 100 * Jan - Apr - 22 - http://www.eppo.go.th Power Generation – Installed Capacity as of Jan - Apr 2015 Import/Exchange SPP 11% 7% (2,405MW) (3,817 MW) EGAT 44% IPP (15,482 MW) 38% (13,166 MW) Total 34,870 MW - 23 - http://www.eppo.go.th Power Generation by Fuel Type Unit: GWh Year Natural Gas Coal & Lignite 2012 119,368 2013 Oil Hydro Import Renewable Energy Total 34,583 1,363 8,431 10,527 2,701 176,973 119,218 35,352 1,418 5,412 12,572 3,427 177,398 2014 120,314 37,572 1,643 5,164 12,260 3,993 180,945 2015* 41,171 10,873 370 1,260 3,653 1,560 58,887 Growth Rate (%) 2012 10.3 9.1 2.4 6.3 -2.3 15.9 9.0 2013 -0.1 2.2 4.0 -35.8 19.4 26.9 0.2 2014 0.9 6.3 15.9 -4.6 -2.5 16.5 2.0 2015* 11.8 -13.0 -45.9 -44.9 -7.8 6.3 2.0 - 24 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Peak Demand and Load Factor YEAR PEAK DEMAND LOAD FACTOR RESERVE AprGIN (MW) (%) (%) 2005 20,538 74.9 33.5 2006 21,064 76.9 29.4 2007 22,586 74.3 32.0 2008 22,568 74.8 40.1 2009 22,045 75.0 36.1 2010 24,010 75.9 31.9 2011 23,900 75.6 38.8 2012 26,121 75.2 27.6 2013 26,598 74.1 29.9 2014 26,942 75.7 32.9 2015* 27,198 73.7 30.1 - 25 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Electricity Consumption Unit: GWh Growth Rate (%) 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2012 2013 2014 2015* MEA 48,244 47,984 48,236 15,520 9.2 -0.5 0.5 3.1 PEA 111,718 114,619 118,637 38,726 8.5 2.6 3.5 3.9 1,817 1,738 1,747 594 6.0 -4.4 0.5 3.9 161,779 164,341 168,620 8.7 1.6 2.6 3.7 EGAT’s Direct Customers Total 54,840 * Jan - Apr - 26 - http://www.eppo.go.th Electricity Consumption for the Whole Country (Classified by Sector) Unit: GWh Growth rate (%) Sector 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2012 2013 2015* Share 2014 2015* (%) Residential 36,447 37,657 38,993 12,443 11.1 3.3 3.5 4.7 22.7 Small General Service 17,013 18,374 18,807 6,076 10.1 8.0 2.4 4.4 11.1 Business 27,088 30,413 31,362 10,359 14.5 12.3 3.1 5.7 18.9 Industrial 72,336 72,536 73,782 24,101 6.5 0.3 1.7 2.7 43.9 3,799 149 152 52 -22.3 -96.1 2.0 14.0 0.1 377 354 414 133 27.1 -6.2 17.2 -39.1 0.2 Free of Charge 2,191 2,379 2,517 901 1.1 8.6 5.8 11.2 1.6 Other 2,527 2,479 2,592 775 52.7 -1.9 4.6 -8.5 1.4 161,779 164,341 168,620 54,840 8.7 1.6 2.6 3.7 100.0 Government and Non-Profit Org. Agriculture Total - 27 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Electricity Consumption for the Whole Country (Classified by TSIC) Unit: GWh Growth Rate (%) Type 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2012 2013 2014 2015* 1. Food 9,721 9,697 10,281 3,329 8.5 -0.2 6.0 2.2 2. Iron and steel 6,954 7,065 7,252 2,253 4.9 1.6 2.7 0.4 3. Textiles 6,038 6,040 6,036 1,891 -2.3 0.0 -0.1 -2.0 4. Electronic 6,325 6,547 6,960 2,274 -5.9 3.5 6.3 4.2 5. Plastics 4,458 4,531 4,539 1,491 7.1 1.6 0.2 2.4 6. Automotive 4,042 4,028 5,125 1,759 6.8 -0.3 -1.8 8.9 7. Cement 4,950 5,220 4,137 1,464 27.2 5.4 2.7 5.7 8. Chemicals 2,155 2,117 2,098 681 -1.7 -1.7 -0.9 1.0 9. Rubber and rubber products 3,012 3,086 3,059 997 8.4 2.4 -0.8 1.3 10. Manufacture of ice 2,697 2,651 2,705 891 11.5 -1.7 2.1 5.0 * Jan - Apr - 28 - http://www.eppo.go.th Electricity Consumption for the Whole Country (Classified by Commercial Cluster) Unit: GWh Growth Rate (%) Type 2012 2013 2014 2015* 2012 2013 2014 2015* 1. Department Store 4,491 4,595 4,743 1,553 8.0 2.3 3.2 2.8 2. Hotel 3,671 3,814 3,797 1,308 9.9 3.9 -0.3 4.4 3. Apartment & Guest House 3,291 3,494 3,687 1,243 12.9 6.2 5.5 9.7 4. Retail sale 2,969 3,141 3,317 1,102 14.4 5.8 5.6 6.6 5. Real Estate Service 2,789 2,866 2,881 929 11.2 2.8 0.5 3.0 6. Hospital 2,222 2,337 2,388 764 9.7 5.2 2.2 4.1 7. Wholesale 2,242 2,277 2,411 806 18.1 1.6 5.9 8.0 8. Construction 980 1,036 1,338 420 3.2 5.6 0.5 0.2 9. Financial Institute 950 935 688 240 7.0 -1.6 7.6 15.9 10. Restaurant & Night Club 869 884 893 294 10.1 1.8 0.9 4.7 * Jan - Apr - 29 - http://www.eppo.go.th Value of Energy Import Unit: Million Baht Growth Rate (%) Jan - Apr ENERGY TYPE CRUDE OIL 2012 2013 1,119,338 1,072,221 2014 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 2015* 979,704 358,448 192,836 14.5 95.8 -8.6 -46.2 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 124,171 139,021 202,265 70,848 35,762 29.2 12.0 45.5 -49.5 NATURAL GAS 116,325 111,911 117,172 30,314 36,931 24.4 -3.8 4.7 21.8 COAL 46,702 39,714 47,947 15,481 14,213 10.3 -15.0 20.7 -8.2 ELECTRICITY 15,440 18,546 18,919 5,978 5,616 11.4 20.1 2.0 -6.1 LNG 24,023 34,827 33,304 13,806 14,281 50.2 45.0 -4.4 3.4 1,445,999 1,416,239 1,399,311 494,876 299,640 16.7 -2.1 -1.2 -39.5 TOTAL - 30 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th Value of Energy Export Unit: Million Baht Growth Rate (%) Jan - Apr ENERGY TYPE 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015* CRUDE OIL 51,531 29,115 8,653 5,578 0 -43.5 -70.3 -100.0 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 344,384 342,208 301,425 91,759 60,846 -0.6 -11.9 -33.7 5,223 4,424 5,116 2,129 2,422 -15.3 15.6 13.8 401,138 375,747 315,194 99,466 63,268 -6.3 -16.1 -36.4 ELECTRICITY TOTAL * Jan - Apr - 31 - http://www.eppo.go.th Expenditure on Final Energy Consumption Unit: Million Baht Jan - Apr ENERGY TYPE 2012 2013 2014 2014 PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Growth Rate (%) 2015 1,312,207 1,326,937 1,336,615 461,279 400,450 2013 2014 2015* 1.1 0.7 -13.2 211,273 10.4 6.6 3.5 ELECTRICITY 562,655 621,328 662,474 204,045 NATURAL GAS 122,509 121,005 123,964 39,531 38,761 -1.2 2.4 -1.9 26,096 33,483 9,863 11,819 -17.4 28.3 19.8 118,276 125,962 123,100 45,315 46,611 6.5 -2.3 2.9 2,147,253 2,221,328 2,279,636 760,034 708,915 3.4 2.6 -6.7 LIGNITE/COAL RENEWABLE ** TOTAL 31,607 * Jan - Apr - 32 - ** Estimate http://www.eppo.go.th Expenditure on Petroleum Product Consumption Unit: Million Baht Growth Rate (%) Jan - Apr ENERGY TYPE 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015* GASOLINE 298,487 304,451 314,369 105,305 85,475 2.0 3.3 -18.8 Regular 91 210,016 121,836 130,975 43,752 35,870 -42.0 7.5 -18.0 Premium 88,471 182,615 183,394 61,553 49,606 106.4 0.4 -19.4 KEROSENE 484 390 380 130 118 -19.4 -2.5 -9.6 DIESEL 625,687 624,676 625,076 216,639 192,625 -0.2 0.1 -11.1 J.P. 183,075 197,243 194,279 70,709 65,951 7.7 -1.5 -6.7 60,821 50,682 47,284 16,868 13,124 -16.7 -6.7 -22.2 143,653 149,495 155,227 51,629 43,157 4.1 3.8 -16.4 1,326,937 1,336,615 461,279 400,450 1.1 0.7 -13.2 FUEL OIL LPG TOTAL 1,312,207 - 33 - * Jan - Apr http://www.eppo.go.th