Transcript CSLI Service Learning – Exit Meeting

The Public’s Perceptions and
Experiences with the Economy in
Anne Arundel County
By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.
Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community College
March 22, 2012
www2.aacc.edu/csli
Overview of Survey Process
•CSLI – Part of Sarbanes Center for Public and Community Service at Anne Arundel
Community College
•Operating since 1978
•Mission: Provide students opportunities for engaged
learning, community outreach
• Main activity – public interest surveys
oRespondents randomly chosen from universe of listed telephone numbers
combined with computer generated numbers
oTypical sample size: 400-600 respondents; students introduced to survey
methods, used as interviewers, review findings
o Topics – wide ranging, economy, transportation, land use/growth,
taxes/spending, schools…
•
since 1978
• Last survey – March 5-8, 2012 – focus of most of this presentation
• 440 completed surveys
• Press releases available online.
www2.aacc.edu/csli
County: Right or Wrong Direction?
Spring ‘99 to Spring ‘12
70
66
62
60
62
60 61
58
57
58 58
55
54
53
51
50
57
55
51 52 51 50 52
52 52
47
49 50
47
43
41
40
34
31
30
29
33 32
31
29
32
28 27 28 28 28
27
25 24
25
25
24
23
23
23 22 22
21
21
21 20
20 19
20
20
19
19 18
18
18
17
16
16 17 17
16
15 15 14
15
13
12
27
20
10
26
27 26
0
Sp
'99
Fa
'99
Sp
'00
Fa
'00
Sp
'01
Fa
'01
Sp
'02
Fa
'02
Sp
'03
Fa
'03
Sp
'04
Right
Fa
'04
Sp
'05
Fa
'05
Sp
'06
Wrong
Fa
'06
Sp
'07
Fa
'07
Unsure
Sp
'08
Fa
'08
Sp
'09
Fa
'09
Sp
'10
Fa
'10
Sp
'11
Fa
'11
Sp
'12
Most Important Problem Fall 2006 to Spring 2012
60
Economy shows sharp drop as problem in March 2012
50
48
48
40
38
36
36
Economy
35
33
Taxes – too high
30
30
Growth
Education
Transportation
23
Crime / drugs
21
20
16
15
12
12
11
10
17
16
9
9
16
16
12
10
12
17
12
7
11
10
10
9
8
13
12
8
6
5
6
4
8
7
5
11
10
9
8
6
5
9
8
6
6
4
7
5
4
4
2
0
'06
'07
'07
'08
‘08
'09
‘09
‘10
‘10
‘11
‘11
12
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Fall
Spring
Rating Economic Conditions for the County, State and Nation:
% saying “excellent” or “good”
55
51
49
48
46
44
45
45
38
35
35
30
31
32
33
27
25
13
15
11 11 11 11
9
5
5
S '09
-5
S '10
S '11
National
S '09
S '10
State
S '09
S '10
County
48
Anne Arundel County vs. USA - % “Excellent and Good”
80
74
76
70
74
74
60
56 56
71
74 71 71
69
62
55
49
50
40
38
34 34
26 27
30
38
46
48
44 45
49 48 51
42
32
31 28
27
22
17
20
10
5
13 9 13
5 10 11 11
0
S '02
F '02
S '03
F '03
S '04
F '04
S '05
F '05
S '06
F '06
S '07
F '07
Anne Arundel County - CSLI
S '08
F '08
S '09
USA - Gallup
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
F '11
S '12
60
Is there a relationship between income and perceptions of
economic conditions?
56
51
Percentage saying “excellent’” or “good” to “rate economic
conditions” questions for county, state and national levels.
50
45
42
38
40
33
30
20
13
12
10
p=.01
p=.2
p=.8
State
USA
0
County
Overall
Under $75k
$75k+
15
Other Demographics and Rating of
County Economic Conditions (Excellent+Good)
75
Non-pract, 72
70
Lib, 67
65
Single, 63
60
Men, 60
No Rel, 62
Postgrad, 61
4yr deg., 60
Dem, 58
Moderate, 57
55
Cath., 55 Afr-Am, 53
Prot., 53
Married, 52
White, 52
50
Rep, 48
45
Under 40, 55
65+, 53
Some coll., 51 41-50, 51
61-64, 49
Unaffil., 44
Conservative, 42
Women, 43
High Sch. Dip., 40
40
35
Evangel., 33
30
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
General economic conditions (1) – % saying ‘applies’
Sp. ‘08-Sp. ‘12
30
24 24
25
21
19
20
21
17
16
15
14
15
20
11
10
8
6
5
6
9
7 7
8 8
4
0
Facing the possibility of house foreclosure or loss
S '08
F '08
Found a new or better job recently
S '09
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
Facing the possibility of unemployment
F '11
S '12
General economic conditions (2) – % saying ‘applies’
Sp. ‘08-Sp. ‘12
80
75
71
70
70
60
60
60
56
52
50
40
30
51
46 47
44
35
30 29
51
44
47
45
35
33 32 34
32 32
20
10
0
Health care insurance is unavailable, too
expensive or inadequate
S '08
F '08
S '09
Significant losses in your stock or
retirement accounts
F '09
S '10
F '10
Delay in making a major purchase such as
a home or car
S '11
F '11
S '12
Economic costs, inflation (1) - % saying ‘applies’
70
63
61
60
58
5959
63
66
63
63
60
59
58
56
59
5555
5656
53
50
50
46
44
42
41
40
40
39
36
35
43
39
32
30
30
26
24
21
21
20
15
11
12
14
13
10
21
17
15
11
10
0
Unable to find
affordable housing
Received an income
increase
S '08
F '08
Hard to afford the cost Hard to afford the cost Taxes are too high in Wages or salaries are
of transportation
of utilities such as
relation to government not rising as fast as the
electricity or gas
services provided
cost of living
S '09
F '09
S '10
F '10
S '11
F '11
S '12
% saying ‘applies’ sorted by Std. Deviation
S
'08
F
'08
S
'09
F
'09
S
'10
F
'10
S
'11
F
'11
S
'12
Std.
Dev.
n.a.
71
75
70
56
60
52
60
44
9.84
Hard to afford cost of transportation
40
32
21
17
21
24
41
30
36
8.31
Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity
or gas
61
50
53
42
44
43
46
39
39
6.8
Taxes are too high in relation to govt. services
provided
47
58
59
59
63
60
63
58
63
4.65
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
26
35
4.5
Facing the possibility of unemployment
11
15
24
24
19
21
20
21
17
3.98
Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the
cost of living
56
59
55
55
56
56
63
59
66
3.65
Unable to find affordable housing
21
11
12
13
15
10
14
11
15
3.13
n.a.
n.a.
51
46
47
44
47
51
45
2.55
35
30
29
33
32
34
35
32
32
1.95
6
4
6
8
7
7
9
8
8
1.41
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
14
16
1
Condition
Significant losses in your stock or retirement
accounts
Received a salary increase or other increase
In income recently
Delay in making a major purchase such as a
home or car
Health care insurance is unavailable, too
expensive or inadequate
Facing the possibility of house foreclosure or
loss
Found a new or better job recently
Is there a relationship between income and economic conditions?
Condition
$Under 75,000 $75,000+ Signif.
Received a salary increase or other increase in income
recently
27
44
.01
Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity or gas
48
28
.01
Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or
inadequate
Unable to find affordable housing
40
25
.01
19
10
.02
Facing the possibility of house foreclosure or loss
11
5
.02
Hard to afford the cost of transportation
41
33
.03
Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living
68
62
.04
Delay in making a major purchase such as a home or car
50
41
.06
Facing the possibility of unemployment
19
14
.1
Significant losses in your stock or retirement accounts
41
48
.2
Found a new or better job recently
14
18
.3
Taxes are too high in relation to the government services
provided
63
59
.5
Consumer confidence: Spring 2012 –
Projection for next 12 months
60
55
54
50
40
40
36
36
30
35
29
27
24
18
20
14
9
10
0
Economic growth
Unemployment
Better
Inflation
Same
Worse
Your personal financial situation
Consumer confidence: Spring 2012 –
Projection for next 12 months (Better-Worse)
30
22
20
9
10
6
0
-10
-20
-2
-3
-9
-9
-30
-40
-43
-50
-46
-60
-57
-70
Fall -11
Spring '12
Does Income Affect Consumer Confidence?
40
26*
28*
20*
20
18*
11*
-5*
0
-1*
Economic growth
-8*
1
Unemployment
Inflation
-6*
-20
Your personal
-6* situation
financial
Overall
-6
-16*
-40
-41
-37*
-45 -48 -46
-54
-60
-71
-80
Under $75K Fall '11
Under $75K Sp. '12
$75k+ Fall '11
$75k+ Sp. '12
Support for policies affecting taxes, spending
Spring 2012
Proposal
Doubling the so-called ‘flush tax’ from
$30 to $60 to help improve wastewater
treatment
6% Increase in gasoline tax
Increasing state funding by $15 million
for building affordable rental housing in
Maryland
Support
Oppose
Unsure
No answer
32
21
56
74
10
5
3
0
37
51
10
2
22
63
12
3
65
28
6
1
The next two proposals would require
the county to take funds from other
agencies or raise taxes to cover the costs.
Shifting pension fund contributions for
teachers from the state to the counties
Strictly enforcing the requirement that
local schools be funded at no less than
last year’s levels
Support for Proposals meant to Replenish
Maryland’s Transportation Trust Fund
Fall 2011
Proposal
Increase the toll on the Bay Bridge from
$2.50 to $4.00
Create a new tax on ownership of vehicles
Increase the state’s property tax, adding $63
million to the fund
Increase the corporate income tax rate by
one percent, adding $100 million to the fund
Support Oppose
Unsure/
NA
33
64
4
10
11
86
86
4
3
57
39
4
Gambling: Support for adding a venue/table games
Adding a location in Prince George’s
County would increase state revenue
significantly
Adding table games would increase state
revenue significantly
Adding a site in Prince George’s County
would reduce revenue at the Arundel Mills
site and therefore reduce Anne Arundel
County’s revenue
Adding more sites or table games would
lead to significantly more gambling
addiction
Expanding gambling by adding another
site has more costs than benefits
Expanding gambling by adding table
games has more costs than benefits
Agree
Disagree
Unsure
No answer
47
44
7
1
51
38
9
2
33
48
15
3
49
43
7
2
42
43
11
4
34
48
13
5
Seriousness of Challenges Facing the County –
Spring 2012
Pollution of the Bay hurting the
maritime industry and wateroriented tourism
Budget constraints limiting the
ability of county government to
provide services
An over-dependency on
government employment
Air pollution causing illnesses
Changes in the quality of county
schools
Rising sea levels threatening low
lying areas with flooding
Very serious
Somewhat
serious
Not very
serious
Unsure/NA
66
21
11
2
43
28
19
10
43
39
27
22
9
26
32
3
39
26
19
16
31
33
27
9
State and County Issues
Issue
Spring 2011
Support
Oppose
Unsure
Imposing an additional fine of up to $1500 on drivers caught drunk driving
86
13
1
Permitting the use of off-shore wind power near Ocean City
80
10
10
Increasing the alcohol tax
Permitting the purchase of marijuana for medical purposes
68
65
29
29
3
7
Taking away drivers’ licenses from those who refuse to pay taxes
64
32
3
Increasing the use of cameras to ticket those running red lights
59
41
4
Making same sex marriages legal in Maryland
47
46
7
Making preparations to implement President Obama’s health care reform law
43
50
8
Limiting the use of binding arbitration when the county negotiates with
public safety unions
35
42
23
Allowing the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition for college
33
63
4
Increasing university tuition to maintain the quality of higher education
32
66
2
Reducing the pension and retiree health benefits of state workers
28
65
7
Promising state workers no furlough days, and providing them with a $750
bonus
25
59
16
Increasing the county income tax to the maximum allowed by law to avoid
cuts in essential services
25
68
7
17
21
80
3
Increasing the gasoline tax to bolster the transportation trust fund