Transcript Slide 1

With funding from the Rockefeller Foundation
and technical and logistical support from Pact.
http://www.seachangecop.org
The Theory of Change Approach
to Program Design, Monitoring, & Evaluation
Colleen McGinn, PhD
Social Research Consultant
- Impact Evaluation Workshop Handicap International
December 2013
http://www.seachangecop.org
Introduction to Theory of Change (ToC)
• Presentation outline
• What is ToC?
• History of ToC
• What kind of programs does
ToC fit?
• Similarities and differences
with logic models
• Steps in a ToC process
• Pitfalls and disadvantages –
and how to avoid them
• Case study
• Recommended resources
Theory of Change has been
described as “a roadmap, a
blueprint, an engine of change, a
theory of action and more” (Stein
and Valters 2012: 5).
- ToC outlines the building blocks
and the relationships between
them that would lead to the
accomplishment of a long-term
goal.
- A practical but flexible approach
to the design, monitoring, and
evaluation (DME) of programs
that address complex, multifaceted, and long-term
problems.
http://www.seachangecop.org
http://www.seachangecop.org
What is Theory of Change?
“Although there are endless variations in terms
of style and content, the basic components [of a
Theory of Change] include a big picture analysis
of how change happens in relation to specific
thematic area; an articulation of an organization
or program pathway in relation to this; and an
impact assessment framework which is designed
to test both the pathway and the assumptions
made about how change happens.”
– O’Flynn 2012: 2
http://www.seachangecop.org
History of ToC
• Origins lie in two streams of research and
praxis
– Social justice advocacy and mobilization
– Evaluation research (e.g., Carol Weiss)
• Not specific to international development
• Intended as a practical, flexible tool that
bridges the ‘bigger picture’ specific near-term
steps that can be addressed by a program or
project.
http://www.seachangecop.org
When to use ToC
• ToC approaches are
especially well-suited for
endeavors that are:
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Complex
Multi-faceted
Long-term
Large-scale
Fluid or uncertain conditions
Identifying lessons learned
and assessing impact
– Evaluating why and how a
program contributes to
meaningful social change
• ToC is a good fit for:
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Climate change adaptation
Gender-based violence
Conflict transformation
Access to education
Behavior change
Empowerment of
marginalized groups
– Social justice / social change
– Any complex social issue
http://www.seachangecop.org
Logic Models vs. ToC
Logic models (“logframes”)
• Logframes align the parts of
a program into a hierarchy
of clearly-specified:
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Goals
Outcomes / objectives
Outputs / results
Inputs / activities
(Indicators)
(Assumptions)
• Presented as a table
Dillon n.d.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Logic Models vs. ToC
Theory of Change
• Goal
• A ‘causal pathway’ of
steps to achieve the
goal
• Clear identification of
preconditions,
thresholds, and
underlying assumptions
for each step
• Presented as a diagram
Anderson 2004
http://www.seachangecop.org
Logic Models vs. ToC
• Logframes and ToC can be used together.
– ToC maps out a broad vision and strategy towards
change.
– Not all of the steps will be directly addressed by
your team.
• Detailed program designs would be prepared only for
selected outcomes. Either a logframe or another more
detailed ToC can be prepared for these selected
programs.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Steps in a ToC
• Task 1: Identify the goal (sometimes called a
‘long-term outcome’ or ‘goal’).
– Goal can be broad and ambitious, but it should
also be specific enough to serve as a springboard
for planning
• Example goal: “Vibrant, healthy communities where
preventable causes of disability are minimized and
disabled children and adults can live in dignity and
realize their full potential.”
http://www.seachangecop.org
Steps in a ToC
• Task 2: Develop a pathway of
change.
– What are the preconditions to
achieve each step/outcome?
– Backwards mapping the answers
to this question
– Every precondition becomes an
outcome for a nearer point
• Example outcomes for our goal:
– Visual disability is prevented by
adequate intake of Vitamin A
– Adults with physical mobility
disabilities earn income sufficient
to keep them out of poverty.
– Many more!
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Anderson 2004
http://www.seachangecop.org
Steps in a ToC
• Task 3: Operationalize
outcomes.
– Select indicators and
thresholds for each
outcome.
– Thresholds are different
from performance
targets.
• Thresholds are a measure
of whether or not the
outcome has been met. It
may be more than what
the program can achieve
in the short run.
• For our example outcome
“Adults with physical
mobility disabilities earn
income sufficient to keep
them out of poverty.”
– Indicator: Monthly income
– Threshold: 100% of adults
under 60 in the village with
restricted physical mobility
earn more than the official
poverty line.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Steps in a ToC
• Task 4: Define interventions.
– Identify which
steps/outcomes your agency
will actually pursue.
– Design programs to address
these selected
steps/outcomes.
– For other steps/outcomes,
consider how to support
others who might pursue
them.
• For our example outcome “Adults
with physical mobility disabilities
earn income sufficient to keep
them out of extreme poverty.”
– HI will support a social
enterprise and vocational
training for adults with
physical mobility restrictions.
• For our example outcome “Visual
disability is prevented by
adequate intake of Vitamin A”
• HI will not implement
program for whatever reason
(maybe another agency is
implementing a good MCH
and nutrition program
already).
http://www.seachangecop.org
Steps in a ToC
• Task 5: Articulate
assumptions.
– Define what are the
necessary and sufficient
conditions to achieve
various steps along the
pathway.
– Helps frame impact
evaluations.
• For our example HI social
enterprise….
– Assumptions might include
that:
• Target beneficiaries want to
earn income (rather than be
supported by families).
• Target beneficiaries have
basic literacy and numeracy
skills sufficient to apply and
manage home-based work
without supervision.
• There is market demand for
the social enterprise’s
products.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Steps in a ToC
• Task 6: Periodically
evaluate and update
the ToC.
– ToCs lend themselves to
more analytical
evaluations, including
assessing impact.
– Strategy should be
revised and updated
regularly.
• In our example, we
assumed that “Target
beneficiaries have basic
literacy and numeracy skills
sufficient to apply and
manage home-based work
without supervision.”
– What if they don’t?
– If this assumption is not met,
it would explain why
endeavour is not working.
– This assumption could instead
be made an outcome and
directly addressed in a
revised program strategy.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Advantages and benefits of ToC
• Stronger focus on contextual analysis.
• ToC processes are inherently iterative and
flexible. Periodic reflection exercises allow
stakeholders to respond to changes in the
social, political, or natural environment.
• Build a shared vision and stronger
relationships with partners and stakeholders.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Advantages and benefits of ToC
• ToC processes emphasize articulating
assumptions that underlie a program and
what is needed to advance along a causal
pathway.
– Clarifies the logic of an intervention
– Helps evaluators capture why and how an
intervention is – or is not – effecting change.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Advantages and benefits of ToC
• Highlight contributions towards long-term
change and linkages between program
component
• A higher level of analysis which facilitates
monitoring and evaluating diverse projects
within a unifying strategic frameworks, as well
as with external actors.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Advantages and benefits of ToC
• More emphasis on how and why questions
– Enables evaluators to assess the impact of a
program towards a long-term or large-scale aim.
– Well-suited to identify lessons learned, best
practice, and new knowledge.
http://www.seachangecop.org
Pitfalls and Disadvantages
• ToC approaches take time to develop.
• ToC processes can feel confusing or abstract to
some.
• ToC flowcharts can be ‘messy’ and difficult to
follow.
• ToC can run the risk of becoming a ‘glorified
logframe.’
• ToC is not a ‘magic bullet.’
http://www.seachangecop.org
‘Real World’ Example: ESPA
Su
Summary Chart
http://www.seachangecop.org
‘Real World’ Example: ESPA
http://www.seachangecop.org
Recommended Tools
• Free open-access Theory of Change software can be
downloaded from The Center for Theory of Change.
http://www.theoryofchange.org/
• An interactive Theory of Change template can be
downloaded from Keystone (together with a workbook).
http://www.keystoneaccountability.org/
• An excellent Theory of Change facilitator’s guide (Anderson
2005) can be downloaded from The Aspen Institute.
http://www.aspeninstitute.org/
• For further reading…
– Vogel, Isobel. (2012). Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in
international development.
– James, Cathy. (2011). Theory of Change review.
http://www.seachangecop.org
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