Transcript Slide 1

Navy Aviation
Building the Future Fleet
RDML Michael Manazir (N880)
Head, Aviation Programs
NDIA Defense Forum
March 12, 2010
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NAVAIR Public Release 08-624. Distribution Statement A – “Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited.”
THE BATTLE SPACE
JFACC/CAOC
BLOS C2 / Data between
AVs / CV / CAOC via Wideband SATCOM;
Bandwidth / Transmissions restricted in AOR
BAMS
USAF deep
attack forces
Carrier
Strike
Group
E-2
CCA Ops with Mesh EMCON Network
Supporting ADMACS, JPALS Connections
Relayed SATCOM and LOS to
Directional Anti-Access Network
Stubs via UCAS, E-2, OG, BAMS, etc
F-35
CV-Based Mission
Control Element
Aerial Refueling
Tanker / UCAS Local
Mesh EMCON Network
AV-AV-Weapon and Relayed
LOS C2 / Data via Directional LPI
Anti-Access Network Stubs
Ground Forces/SOF
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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT
• Trends in the “cost to own and operate” the fleet
point to an unaffordable future
• Every one of us must proactively drive to
continuously reduce total life cycle costs
Operational concepts should inform design & integration of ship hull,
weapons, and communications systems, mission modules, manning and
training plans, and infrastructure requirements. We must understand
how these factors individually, and as a whole, impact the cost of our
Surface Fleet.
- CNO letter of 3 Aug 09
Today’s fiscal environment demands that every dollar
invested in sustaining today’s Navy & building tomorrow’s
Navy be spent effectively and efficiently
Source: N4B Navy Readiness Overview Brief dated 2 February 2010, Mr. Pat Tamburrino
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FEDERAL BUDGET 1962-2015
Federal Budget*
2010 ~$3700 B
Projection
2010-2015
5000
Veterans’
Benefits
4500
Interest
4000
2009 Stimulus
Package
3500
Social
Security
TY $ in B
3000
2500
Defense Budget
2010 ~$719 B
19% of Total Budget
2000
Medicare
Medicaid
1500
Discretionary
Non-Defense
1000
500
Discretionary
Defense
0
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
*Doesn't include undistributed offsets
TQ
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
19
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
20
15
20
Source: OMB Historical Tables
4
DEFENSE BUDGET BROKEN OUT BY SERVICE
1962-2010
5000
FEDERAL BUDGET 1962-2015
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
TY $ in B
700
2000
1500
600
1000
Defense
Budget
500
0
62
19
65
19
68
19
71
19
74
19
TQ
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
19
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
20
15
20
OSD
500
300
Air Force
200
Navy/USMC
100
Army
FY
10
FY
08
FY
06
FY
04
FY
02
FY
00
FY
98
FY
96
FY
94
FY
92
FY
90
FY
88
FY
86
FY
84
FY
82
FY
80
FY
78
FY
76
FY
74
FY
72
FY
70
FY
68
FY
66
FY
64
0
FY
62
TY $ in B
400
-100
Source: National Defense Budget Estimates 2009 –
Green Book, June 2009
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NAE BUDGET PRESSURES
Reduced Top Line Due to
OCO Budget Transition
- RMD adjustments
MILCON
PANMC
WPN
- Other Corporate Bills
- Fact of Life
OPN
OMN
TY$(B)
MPN
SCN
- Change Proposals
RDTE
APN
Top Line Pressures will cause
cuts in RDTE and APN accounts
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
TOC is critical to controlling our costs so that we can afford
future war fighting systems
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AIRCRAFT TOTAL OWNERSHIP/ LIFE CYCLE
COST COMPOSITION
• Management
• Hardware
• ECOs
RECURRING
FLYAWAY
PLUS
• Non- recurring
• Ancillary Equip
PLUS
• Tech Data
• Pubs
• CSS
• Support
Equip
• Training
Equip
• Factory
Training
PLUS
• Initial
Spares
PLUS
• RDT&E
• Facility
Construction
FLYAWAY COST
WEAPON SYSTEM COST
PROCUREMENT COST
ACQUISITION COST
PLUS
• Operating
& Support
(Includes
Operating
Production
Support)
• Disposal
PLUS
• Common
Spares/
Support
Items
• Infrastructure Cost for
Planning,
Managing,
Operating,
and
Executing
• Linked
Indirect
Costs
• Modification
Improvements
LIFE CYCLE COST
TOTAL OWNERSHIP COST
Reducing TOC is a major initiative within the Navy
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NAVAL AVIATION TYPICAL
LIFE CYCLE COST DISTRIBUTION
R&D
PRODUCTION
O&S
46%
44%
10%
PERCENTAGES BASED ON CARRIER AIR WING STUDY
DESIGN INFLUENCES TO
REDUCE TOC (INCLUDING
PRODUCTION AND O&S) COST
–
–
–
–
STUDY COVERED 50 YEAR CYCLE
ASSUMED 75 AIRCRAFT WING MAKE UP
25 YEAR LIFE CYCLE
REPLACEMENT AIRCRAFT DEVELOPED & FIELDED AFTER 25 YEARS
DEVELOP BUSINESS MODEL FOR
SUPPORT STRATEGY (INCLUDING PBL)
A
CONCEPT TECH
REFINE- DEV
MENT
B
C
ENG AND
MFG DEV
(EMD)
PRODUCTION DEVELOPMENT
OPERATION & SUPPORT
Ability to reduce/ influence TOC (including
production and O&S) costs decreases over time
NOTE: PERCENTS VARY BY T/M/S BUT ARE GENERALLY ARE IN THE RANGE SHOWN ABOVE
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PROGRAM DEFINITION UNCERTAINTY vs. TIME
10% Development
Cost, Technical, and
Programmatic Uncertainty
PreSystems
Systems Acquisition
Acquisition
Pre
Concept
Refinement A
Concept
Refinement
70-75% OF COST DECISION HAVE
BEEN MADE
46% Production
Systems Acquisition
B
Systems Development
& Demonstration
85% OF COST DECISIONS MADE
C
44% O&S
Sustainment
Production & Deployment
IOC
90-95% OF COST
DECISIONS MADE
Operations & Support
FOC
Disposal
95% OF COST
DECISIONS MADE
Ability to influence TOC reduces over time
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FUTURE CARRIER AIR WING
NOTIONAL CVW OF THE FUTURE COMPRISED OF:
• 44 STRIKE FIGHTER (F/A-18, JSF) AIRCRAFT
• 5 EA-18G AIRBORNE ELECTRONIC ATTACK (AEA) AIRCRAFT
• 5 E-2D ADVANCED HAWKEYE AIRCRAFT
• 19 MH-60R/S HELOS (11 ON THE CARRIER/8 DISPERSED THROUGH THE
CSG)
• 2 CARRIER ONBOARD DELIVERY (COD) AIRCRAFT AUGMENT THE ENTIRE
CSG
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3 PRIMARY TOC CHALLENGES
1. Life Cycle Costs are set early
–
–
Understanding and influencing the cost drivers are essential
Need to increase the focus on TOC at every decision point
2. The majority of the 2020 Battle Force exists today
–
–
Platforms must achieve their expected service life
222 of today's 285 ships are required in 2020
3. Life cycle costs of next generation systems must be
more fully understood
–
–
Increased fidelity of sustainment strategies is essential
The F-35 challenge is representative of the future
Think strategically about how to reduce the cost of doing
business without compromising warfighting effectiveness
Source: N4B Navy Readiness Overview Brief dated 2 February 2010, Mr. Pat Tamburrino
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WAY AHEAD
• Think well past the POM/PR…Create and exploit
every opportunity to reduce cost
• Develop Catalog of Initiatives that Reduce TOC
– Build base of unfunded affordability initiatives
with ROI potential
• Develop TOC Performance Capture Methodology
– Identify data sources with fidelity to facilitate
senior leadership decision making
Source: N4B Navy Readiness Overview Brief dated 2 February 2010, Mr. Pat Tamburrino
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DISCUSSION
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